Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Fred Gossage]

Not to derail from what we’re talking about now, but doesn’t Sunday also have nasty potential too? These two days look like they have the chance to be historic.

Sunday has looked ugly for a while, and for a time, it looked like the more sure fire day of the two this weekend. Sunday's outcome will be determined by what happens Saturday overnight into Sunday morning and just how organized the low-level jet is. But if things cooperate, there could very well be a MDT+ type tornado event on Sunday as well as a ceiling for that day.

 

[Maxis_s]

Not to derail from what we’re talking about now, but doesn’t Sunday also have nasty potential too? These two days look like they have the chance to be historic.

I'm pretty sure it could be, yeah. I don't think to the same extent as tomorrow, but potentially historic for the region.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Rest of the 00z CAMs are not nearly as impressive as the HRRR btw. Early initiation and the moisture getting suppressed south seems to be a common theme on them.

Moisture suppressed south compared to last night's data was even a thing on the HRRR. It's definitely not a full blown guarantee just yet.

 

[brianc33710]

Given TWC knows in advance this will get bad, I bet they stay on air tomorrow. Last Sunday wasn't as certain until later in the day. Tomorrow could be historic.

 

[jiharris0220]

Rest of the 00z CAMs are not nearly as impressive as the HRRR btw. Early initiation and the moisture getting suppressed south seems to be a common theme on them.

No kidding, my days what a difference so close in time.

 

[rushdude]

All the Okies, Texans and Kansans, be safe out there tomorrow. Hope nothing happens but whatever does develop will be happening in one heck of an environment.
View attachment 27718

Those projected cells headed towards DFW..

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Did the FV3 and the HRRR switch places?

 

[TornadoFan17]

No kidding, my days what a difference so close in time.
View attachment 27719View attachment 27720

Textbook dryline right there.

 

[tornado examiner]

So are they actually gonna issue a high risk day 1 or are people just saying that?

 

[Kds86z]

I hate to speak so definitively, but I would be SHOCKED if they don't issue a High Risk.

Even given the moisture issue,?

 

[TornadoFan17]

Even given the moisture issue,?

The SPC's reasoning for not issuing a D2 high was storm coverage.

Looking at the HRRR, I don't think storm coverage will be a problem anymore.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

The SPC's reasoning for not issuing a D2 high was storm coverage.

Looking at the HRRR, I don't think storm coverage will be a problem anymore.

See Andy’s comment. HRRR is a bit of an outlier so far amongst the CAMS with regards to that much coverage and initiation. Will have to see if the others follow suit over the next runs.

 

[Kds86z]

The SPC's reasoning for not issuing a D2 high was storm coverage.

Looking at the HRRR, I don't think storm coverage will be a problem anymore.

I know but I was referencing the moisture south issue

 

[Maxis_s]

Dunno what this means but it's a big number so I'm very concerned about my concerns on this concerning event that concerns some very concerning concerns.

 

[Brice W]

Dunno what this means but it's a big number so I'm very concerned about my concerns on this concerning event that concerns some very concerning concerns.

Very concerning.

 

[TornadoFan]

Dunno what this means but it's a big number so I'm very concerned about my concerns on this concerning event that concerns some very concerning concerns.

Troubling.

 

[Brice W]

Dunno what this means but it's a big number so I'm very concerned about my concerns on this concerning event that concerns some very concerning concerns.

Don’t know either, can anyone explain?

 

[TH2002]

Dunno what this means but it's a big number so I'm very concerned about my concerns on this concerning event that concerns some very concerning concerns.

Since he's actually a member here, hopefully he can show up to explain. @CAL

 

[Jellyroll]

I noticed this on the 06z forecast when it was issued yesterday (my time zone):

View attachment 27702

Does anyone have a specific meteorological definition of 'digging' on hand?

WHAT DO THE TERMS DIGGING AND DEEPENING MEAN?

Digging is a specific term, see description in link

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

So are they actually gonna issue a high risk day 1 or are people just saying that?

Think if they’go high risk , it will come by 8clock mornings update ….