Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[slenker]

@Fred Gossage Simply put, does it mean the mesocyclone is so powerful it’s generating a broad-scale low on the model?

 

[TornadoFan]

Now I'm gonna be up all night waiting for that midnight Day 1 outlook.

 

[Clancy]

Oh boy, HRRR cooked and WXTwitter listened.

 

[Fred Gossage]

@Fred Gossage Simply put, does it mean the mesocyclone is so powerful it’s generating a broad-scale low on the model?

It's being modeled so strongly that it's being reflected in that low/large of a grid box resolution in that model. That's not a CAM. It doesn't have the ability to model storm features explicitly. It's still doing that, however.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TH2002]

As someone who used to live in the former East Germany, I have to ask

Why

I'm no communist, but it got stuck in my head. Don't ask me why because I don't understand how my own mind works, lol.

 

[TornadoFan]

I'm no communist, but it got stuck in my head. Don't ask me why because I don't understand how my own mind works, lol.

I know how that goes.

 

[slenker]

It's being modeled so strongly that it's being reflected in that low/large of a grid box resolution in that model. That's not a CAM. It doesn't have the ability to model storm features explicitly. It's still doing that, however.

Wow, that’s unbelievable… all tomorrow needs is one line of storms, and from the sounds of it, multiple lines may be possible.

 

[Maxis_s]

It's being modeled so strongly that it's being reflected in that low/large of a grid box resolution in that model. That's not a CAM. It doesn't have the ability to model storm features explicitly. It's still doing that, however.

My god. This is... well, scary. Very very scary. I haven't been tracking weather until 2022 so I don't have any idea what kind of outbreak this is gonna entail.

 

[Maxis_s]

Wow, that’s unbelievable… all tomorrow needs is one line of storms, and from the sounds of it, multiple lines may be possible.

Yeah, it does seem like it. That's what REALLY scares me.
It's not gonna just fire a line of supercells with potentially violent tornadoes, it's gonna do it possibly a second time, or more (although I doubt it, but who really knows, this setup is absolutely insane). It's gonna absolutely use the environment its in to the fullest potential.

 

[Clancy]

All the Okies, Texans and Kansans, be safe out there tomorrow. Hope nothing happens but whatever does develop will be happening in one heck of an environment.

 

[Keldeo]

View attachment 27711

 

[Maxis_s]

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I agree. After this season settles down the SPC should retroactively apply an "Extreme Risk" to generational events like 03-04 Apr 74, 27 Apr 11 & any applicable outbreak that comes afterward.

I don't know why the SPC didn't assign a 60% on 27 Apr 11 over N AL. That definitely deserved it more than Apr '06. Maybe they got too busy, which is altogether possible given how bad that day was for so many.

April 6. 2006 featured a 60 percent tornado ️ risk

 

[Maxis_s]

Oh he REALLY just went there.

 

[Fred Gossage]

April 6. 2006 featured a 60 percent tornado ️ risk

I actually think that issuance Broyles did that day and how it didn't quite work out is probably why he only went 45% at 1630z on 4/27/11.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I actually think that issuance Broyles did that day and how it didn't quite work out is probably why he only went 45% at 1630z on 4/27/11.

Agree

 

[slenker]

Not to derail from what we’re talking about now, but doesn’t Sunday also have nasty potential too? These two days look like they have the chance to be historic.

 

[brianc33710]

April 6. 2006 featured a 60 percent tornado ️ risk

I know. That was my point lol. But we've refocused on tomorrow now & that's more important. So let's stick with that.

 

[andyhb]

Rest of the 00z CAMs are not nearly as impressive as the HRRR btw. Early initiation and the moisture getting suppressed south seems to be a common theme on them.