Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Maxis_s]

Think if they’go high risk , it will come by 8clock mornings update ….

I'm calling it. They go high risk by 06z, upgrade to 45% at 13z, nothing happens and a deviant cyclic supercell carves a 5 foot trench south of Nowhereville in west Texas.

 

[Fred Gossage]

See Andy’s comment. HRRR is a bit of an outlier so far amongst the CAMS with regards to that much coverage and initiation. Will have to see if the others follow suit over the next runs.

Andy is 800% correct in pointing out the issue, and even the HRRR was a bit more restricted with its northward push of 70+ dewpoints tonight compared to last night's data. However, I will say this just anecdotally from being actively on the forecast desk here at the station and having to deal with convective problems every single day this week.... There has not been one single run of the WRF-ARW, WRF-NSSL, FV3, 3k NAM, or the proprietary TV vendor CAMs that I've been able to take on air as a "Futurecast" product to try to show general timing/evolution of the various storm clusters and waves here at any point all week long... because they've all derailed from reality no deeper in that 03-06hrs out. While the HRRR has been far from perfect, I've been able to at least get a sense of general evolution of weakening vs strengthening, widespread vs spotty, and a very basic timing from the HRRR much of the week... at least enough to be able to show it on air and explain to not pay attention to exact details at an exact time, but use it as an overall general broad-brush guideline. All that may have absolutely zero impact on tomorrow, but when I haven't been able to use certain model output even out to 03 hr consistently all week, I'm not exactly running and doing somersaults and back handsprings to magically use it for tomorrow just because reasons. Yes, they are all in pretty good agreement versus the HRRR, but there have also been several times this week that they've been in pretty good agreement with each other about certain things, only to all fall flat on their faces because of it.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Andy is 800% correct in pointing out the issue, and even the HRRR was a bit more restricted with its northward push of 70+ dewpoints tonight compared to last night's data. However, I will say this just anecdotally from being actively on the forecast desk here at the station and having to deal with convective problems every single day this week.... There has not been one single run of the WRF-ARW, WRF-NSSL, FV3, 3k NAM, or the proprietary TV vendor CAMs that I've been able to take on air as a "Futurecast" product to try to show general timing/evolution of the various storm clusters and waves here at any point all week long... because they've all derailed from reality no deeper in that 03-06hrs out. While the HRRR has been far from perfect, I've been able to at least get a sense of general evolution of weakening vs strengthening, widespread vs spotty, and a very basic timing from the HRRR much of the week... at least enough to be able to show it on air and explain to not pay attention to exact details at an exact time, but use it as an overall general broad-brush guideline. All that may have absolutely zero impact on tomorrow, but when I haven't been able to use certain model output even out to 03 hr consistently all week, I'm not exactly running and doing somersaults and back handsprings to magically use it for tomorrow just because reasons. Yes, they are all in pretty good agreement versus the HRRR, but there have also been several times this week that they've been in pretty good agreement with each other about certain things, only to all fall flat on their faces because of it.

Thanks for explaining that Fred, that’s helpful. Appreciate your insights as always sir.

 

[Tanner]

See Andy’s comment. HRRR is a bit of an outlier so far amongst the CAMS with regards to that much coverage and initiation. Will have to see if the others follow suit over the next runs.

You all put too much stock into the CAM’s. Just wait until observations tomorrow afternoon to start speculating.

 

[Kds86z]

Trey’s forecast will be out in morning

 

[Evan]

I know but I was referencing the moisture south issue

I definitely think it's much better than even odds at this point. I just don't think the CAMs showing suppression and early initiation are the deciding factors here (I could be wrong), but, rather, factors that would increase confidence that much more if they were to come into alignment. Granted, I'm speculating and I don't pretend to know what a forecaster at the SPC needs to see to pull the trigger to upgrade.

That said, I really don't see why the SPC would hold-off on a high risk in this scenario. Although, I could see it being a smaller concentrated area until later Day 1 updates if they do, in fact, want to see what happens with initiation and moisture trends.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

You all put too much stock into the CAM’s. Just wait until observations tomorrow afternoon to start speculating.

They’re tools in a larger toolbox. I was merely responding to a poster on what may be holding back a high risk and pointed him to what Andy had noted.

 

[Maxis_s]

I love this video so much. It's so goofy

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I love this video so much. It's so goofy

I wonder if Broyles is aware of his “reputation/reverence” amongst the WX community?

 

[WaryWarren]

I love this video so much. It's so goofy

That video is far scarier than any EF-5 bearing down on your location.

 

[Tanner]

I wonder if Broyles is aware of his “reputation/reverence” amongst the WX community?

He probably couldn’t care any less

 

[jiharris0220]

Watch for the strength and deepness of the surface low, if it comes in further south and stronger than modeled, then expect a stronger moisture return flow that comes in north faster.

Also, the experimental RRFS agrees with the hrrr in firing convection in Oklahoma.

 

[Muwx]

 

[Maxis_s]

That video is far scarier than any EF-5 bearing down on your location.

I'm so sorry

 

[Keldeo]

 

[Fred Gossage]

This is happening because of the HREF members that aren't as widespread with initiation. While the HRRR is an HREF member, so are the WRF-ARW, NSSL-WRF, FV3, etc. If they were convecting more, this output would be twerkin'....

 

[Maxis_s]

this output would be twerkin'....

I don't think that's the right word

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Maxis_s]

Anyone hungry?

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I wonder if Broyles is aware of his “reputation/reverence” amongst the WX community?

Oh, he is.