Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Fred Gossage]

How can you expect us to play nice when you’re using the meme of a dog that just died today. lol

WHAT??? NO!!!! Lemme edit....

 

[Kds86z]

Whew chile..... some of y'all are about to see this new Day 2 for Sunday that just got issued and are gonna be ready to drive a wooden stake through Kerr's heart. Y'all play nice....

i don’t recall ever seeing such an early day 2. Also, the word tornado wasn’t used once.

 

[Maxis_s]

Whew chile..... some of y'all are about to see this new Day 2 for Sunday that just got issued and are gonna be ready to drive a wooden stake through Kerr's heart. Y'all play nice....

Ok, just checked.
Kerr has got it completely wrong again. A 5% tornado risk??
I don't know much about Sunday and IMO it's not gonna even compare to today, but WOW that is just wrong.

 

[brianc33710]

I don't see the new 1.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Yes, she was 18 years old.

I am sorry it is hard to lose a pet.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Ok, just checked.
Kerr has got it completely wrong again. A 5% tornado risk??
I don't know much about Sunday and IMO it's not gonna even compare to today, but WOW that is just wrong.

I'm just the messenger. LOL

 

[Maxis_s]

I don't see the new 1.

You can see it here
Kerr was the one who made the initial D2 outlook for today's event, right?

 

[cincywx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE...

..SUMMARY

WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD INCLUDE THE
EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST ONE LARGE, LONG-LIVED ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FROM PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MUCH OF KENTUCKY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TENNESSEE.

..SYNOPSIS

MODELS INDICATE THAT INITIALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING,
COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS
EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST, MAY UNDERGO SUBSTANTIVE
AMPLIFICATION WHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE LEAD EMBEDDED PERTURBATION MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY NOTABLE FURTHER
DEEPENING OF A RELATIVELY COMPACT DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS CYCLONE, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF MISSOURI, NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SHARPENING DRYLINE
NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AREA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE A PLUME OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BENEATH THIS REGIME,
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS, BUT THIS MAY BE COMPLICATED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF REMNANT CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
AREAS UPSTREAM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

..SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT, INCLUDING CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE,
SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY VICINITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DESTABILIZING MOIST LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN-MOST ACTIVITY MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN OR SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
CONVECTION EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE DAY. IF THIS OCCURS, BENEATH A
SEASONABLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET, VERTICAL SHEAR
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SUSTAINED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE, A PERHAPS MORE PROMINENT SIGNAL PERSISTS IN MODEL OUTPUT
THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRENGTHENING DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING, NEAR
THE WESTERN FLANK OF MODIFYING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BENEATH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PLUME OF WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
AIR, MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IN A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INFLOW OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG MAY CONTRIBUTE TO UPSCALE GROWING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WITH POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE INTO A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. GIVEN SEASONABLY HIGH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT BENEATH DRY MID-LEVELS WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES, A STRONG COLD POOL MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE AND POSE
A RISK FOR SUSTAINED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/25/2024

fine by me. E/SE IN & W/SW OH have already had their fair share this year - let's keep it that way.

 

[Fred Gossage]

where'd you get the new Sunday outlook from again? I'm having a brain fart

kamala.cod.edu/spc is usually the fastest way to find it. That's the SPC text page from the College of DuPage website.

 

[Kds86z]

kamala.cod.edu/spc is usually the fastest way to find it. That's the SPC text page from the College of DuPage website.

Yep. That’s my go to

 

[cg9450]

fine by me. E/SE IN & W/SW OH have already had their fair share this year - let's keep it that way.

Maybe I still won't have to go to a wedding I didn't want to..

 

[Todd]

Will there be people upset if day 1 does not go high risk tonight?

 

[Kds86z]

You can see it here
Kerr was the one who made the initial D2 outlook for today's event, right?

Yep

 

[atrainguy]

Will there be people upset if day 1 does not go high risk tonight?

Ohhhh I'm sure Twitter will be an interesting place if that happens.

 

[cg9450]

Will there be people upset if day 1 does not go high risk tonight?

does a bear issue a Tornado Emergency in the woods?

 

[Kds86z]

Ohhhh I'm sure Twitter will be an interesting place if that happens.

Also if it’s a high and it busts lol

 

[TornadoFan]

Not sure what this is worth.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Not sure what this is worth.

Whether it's correct or not, we don't know yet. What I can say is that it's easier to decouple the boundary layer (develop that nocturnal inversion and sfc-based non-capping CIN) faster at sunset if the dewpoint depressions are higher. This trend is probably tied to that ongoing question mark.

 

[Fred Gossage]

What's about to catch y'all off guard is Grams is supposed to be the forecaster on shift for the Day 1 tonight.... but the reason why Kerr sent out that Day 2 an hour and a half earlier than scheduled is because Grams called out sick, and Kerr is gonna grab the Day 1.... and he's gonna take it back down to that small 10% sigtor driven ENH he had earlier this morning because "Ain't nobody gave Jewell permission to upgrade my stuff. Upgrade deez nutz. And Leitman whomst?"

 

[Kds86z]

What's about to catch y'all off guard is Grams is supposed to be the forecaster on shift for the Day 1 tonight.... but the reason why Kerr sent out that Day 2 an hour and a half earlier than scheduled is because Grams called out sick, and Kerr is gonna grab the Day 1.... and he's gonna take it back down to that small 10% sigtor driven ENH he had earlier this morning because "Ain't nobody gave Jewell permission to upgrade my stuff. Upgrade deez nutz. And Leitman whomst?"

Shoot…