Oh great.What's about to catch y'all off guard is Grams is supposed to be the forecaster on shift for the Day 1 tonight.... but the reason why Kerr sent out that Day 2 an hour and a half earlier than scheduled is because Grams called out sick, and Kerr is gonna grab the Day 1.... and he's gonna take it back down to that small 10% sigtor driven ENH he had earlier this morning because "Ain't nobody gave Jewell permission to upgrade my stuff. Upgrade deez nutz. And Leitman whomst?"
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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Twitter gonna go apes%% alreadyWhat's about to catch y'all off guard is Grams is supposed to be the forecaster on shift for the Day 1 tonight.... but the reason why Kerr sent out that Day 2 an hour and a half earlier than scheduled is because Grams called out sick, and Kerr is gonna grab the Day 1.... and he's gonna take it back down to that small 10% sigtor driven ENH he had earlier this morning because "Ain't nobody gave Jewell permission to upgrade my stuff. Upgrade deez nutz. And Leitman whomst?"
They just all be pushed aside anyway. There's only one person we need.What's about to catch y'all off guard is Grams is supposed to be the forecaster on shift for the Day 1 tonight.... but the reason why Kerr sent out that Day 2 an hour and a half earlier than scheduled is because Grams called out sick, and Kerr is gonna grab the Day 1.... and he's gonna take it back down to that small 10% sigtor driven ENH he had earlier this morning because "Ain't nobody gave Jewell permission to upgrade my stuff. Upgrade deez nutz. And Leitman whomst?"
BROOOOOOOOYLEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSS
tennessee storm chaser
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That’s. The man
Funnily enough that graphic from the Broyles parody account is from May 6 but it could almost be for what will be tomorrow for me.
As I'll be asleep during the early evolution of this event I'm expecting to see either a historic outbreak or a monumental underperformance that causes queues of chasers to bust. The vibe since the 00z HRRR came out demands one of those two scenarios and nothing in between*.
*N.B. no actual meteorological knowledge was applied in formulating this definitely not-serious and in fact very much sarcastic opinion.
cincywx
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TornadoFan17
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SPC AC 250558
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon
into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains.
A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur.
Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected.
...Central and southern Great Plains...
Much uncertainty plagues this outlook cycle, with the level
4-Moderate risk left as-is. This evening's guidance has trended
slower and more confined with the boundary-layer moisture return,
with most CAMs also suggesting earlier afternoon initiation
occurring along the periphery of the richer moisture in west TX.
Level 5-High risk potential remains evident with the 00Z HRRR
indicating a possible tornado outbreak scenario with long-lived
strong to violent tornadoes.
Consensus of evening guidance suggests low-level moisture return
will be within a confined swath emanating north from the
south-central TX portion of the Rio Grande Valley into west TX. This
will occur downstream of a modestly amplified mid-level trough,
consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, ejecting across
the West into the central and southern High Plains. Surface
temperatures west of the dryline will become hot, and most CAMs
indicate early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development in the TX
Big Country/western north TX vicinity. It is probable that this will
become the southern extent of the overall severe threat with
slow-moving supercells persisting into the evening.
Across OK/KS, richer and deeper boundary-layer moisture ahead of the
dryline should be confined to western OK through late afternoon. A
more well-mixed boundary layer is expected farther north in
western/central KS, while the rich moisture should be shallow in
central OK before deepening later. Most guidance suggests high-based
thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon across southwest NE
and northwest KS, where mid-level cooling will be greatest.
Very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary
threats during the afternoon with relatively elongated/straight
hodographs supporting potential for left and right-splitting
supercells. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in the tornado
threat substantially increasing by early evening. The most volatile
environment for long-lived, intense tornadic supercells should exist
over the western half of OK. Primary uncertainty precluding an
upgrade is the degree of impact earlier afternoon storms to the
south may have on this setup with left-splits/outflows.
The northern periphery of the richer/deeper moisture surge and
robust low-level jet is eventually expected to reach at least into
southern KS during the evening. Supercells in this region will
strengthen as this occurs, and become capable of producing
long-lived, intense tornadoes after dusk. But with time tonight,
increasing large-scale ascent should support a supercell to bow echo
to MCS evolution towards the Ozark Plateau vicinity. This should
yield a swath of damaging winds, with embedded significant severe
gusts and tornadoes possible as it tracks eastward along the MLCAPE
gradient overnight.
...Eastern States...
Three areas of level 1-MRGL risk are forecast today with sporadic
severe hail and locally damaging winds possible.
Remnant morning convection and attendant MCVs may aid in isolated
severe across parts of the Deep South early, before
spreading/developing east towards parts of the coastal Atlantic
Southeast during the afternoon. Separately, a marginal supercell
wind profile will also exist along the southeast FL sea breeze.
Across the Lower Great Lakes to central/northern Appalachians,
initial mid-level ridging will evolve to a flatter, zonal flow
regime. The trailing surface front attendant to a nearly stationary,
occluded cyclone along the southeast MB/northwest ON border area
should aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon,
some of which should become strong.
..Grams/Moore.. 05/25/2024
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon
into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains.
A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur.
Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected.
...Central and southern Great Plains...
Much uncertainty plagues this outlook cycle, with the level
4-Moderate risk left as-is. This evening's guidance has trended
slower and more confined with the boundary-layer moisture return,
with most CAMs also suggesting earlier afternoon initiation
occurring along the periphery of the richer moisture in west TX.
Level 5-High risk potential remains evident with the 00Z HRRR
indicating a possible tornado outbreak scenario with long-lived
strong to violent tornadoes.
Consensus of evening guidance suggests low-level moisture return
will be within a confined swath emanating north from the
south-central TX portion of the Rio Grande Valley into west TX. This
will occur downstream of a modestly amplified mid-level trough,
consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, ejecting across
the West into the central and southern High Plains. Surface
temperatures west of the dryline will become hot, and most CAMs
indicate early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development in the TX
Big Country/western north TX vicinity. It is probable that this will
become the southern extent of the overall severe threat with
slow-moving supercells persisting into the evening.
Across OK/KS, richer and deeper boundary-layer moisture ahead of the
dryline should be confined to western OK through late afternoon. A
more well-mixed boundary layer is expected farther north in
western/central KS, while the rich moisture should be shallow in
central OK before deepening later. Most guidance suggests high-based
thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon across southwest NE
and northwest KS, where mid-level cooling will be greatest.
Very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary
threats during the afternoon with relatively elongated/straight
hodographs supporting potential for left and right-splitting
supercells. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in the tornado
threat substantially increasing by early evening. The most volatile
environment for long-lived, intense tornadic supercells should exist
over the western half of OK. Primary uncertainty precluding an
upgrade is the degree of impact earlier afternoon storms to the
south may have on this setup with left-splits/outflows.
The northern periphery of the richer/deeper moisture surge and
robust low-level jet is eventually expected to reach at least into
southern KS during the evening. Supercells in this region will
strengthen as this occurs, and become capable of producing
long-lived, intense tornadoes after dusk. But with time tonight,
increasing large-scale ascent should support a supercell to bow echo
to MCS evolution towards the Ozark Plateau vicinity. This should
yield a swath of damaging winds, with embedded significant severe
gusts and tornadoes possible as it tracks eastward along the MLCAPE
gradient overnight.
...Eastern States...
Three areas of level 1-MRGL risk are forecast today with sporadic
severe hail and locally damaging winds possible.
Remnant morning convection and attendant MCVs may aid in isolated
severe across parts of the Deep South early, before
spreading/developing east towards parts of the coastal Atlantic
Southeast during the afternoon. Separately, a marginal supercell
wind profile will also exist along the southeast FL sea breeze.
Across the Lower Great Lakes to central/northern Appalachians,
initial mid-level ridging will evolve to a flatter, zonal flow
regime. The trailing surface front attendant to a nearly stationary,
occluded cyclone along the southeast MB/northwest ON border area
should aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon,
some of which should become strong.
..Grams/Moore.. 05/25/2024
jiharris0220
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TornadoFan17
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Missed that. Thanks!
The NSSL-MPAS data for the 00z cycle is starting to roll in. The early two are run from the HRRR (keep that in mind as I talk about how they support the flies in the ointment... they're initialized off the HRRR that went EF5-city and still have these issues). They're just coming in to mid/late afternoon, and I'm already seeing an exacerbation of the concerns with the dewpoint depressions and LCL heights. These models are getting the open warm sector out ahead of the dryline up into the 92-94F range. You get that warm, and you're starting to get into a range where even mid 70 dewpoints will still be accompanied by more marginal LCL/LFC heights and dewpoint depressions that are high enough to allow some RFD cold pooling. Then, because we're getting so hot, there's increased mixing of the moisture for a ways ahead of the dryline. The dryline is not nearly as sharp in this data as it needs to be for supercells trying to develop in it to have an environment that doesn't foster RFD cold pooling and undercutting early in their life cycles. These were some of the exact same flies in the ointment that caused the early supercells on May 6th to not work out. Keep in mind again that these particular high-resolution models are initialized off the same HRRR that went 5/24/11-Redux, and they're still modeling these issues. One of those MPAS models is even trying to develop convection down in northwest TX by 20z... similar to some of the WRF runs that caused the SPC to hold off on a High Risk upgrade early this morning. The thing about having these temps up into the 90s is that you're warm enough to break the cap, and because there is some low-level moisture, you will get thunderstorms to go... but because of the dewpoint depressions and high cloud bases, they will cold-pool/outflow quickly, and then that spreading outflow/cold pool has the potential to foul up the environment around it, just as the SPC outlook mentioned in relation to the non-HRRR CAMs popping early afternoon storms in north TX.
There are definite concerns about the evolution of everything that have made holding the outlook at MDT Risk tonight the right call, and if these concerns hold, it doesn't need to upgrade later today either. The thing is, some of the 12z runs of these CAMs that were completely quiet were honestly a little more favorable than these 00z runs that have trended hotter/mixed with the warm sector and develop high-based outflowing storms south of the potential outbreak area. The question marks earlier on Friday mainly revolved around the cap breaking. This is different, and it didn't really start showing its true face in the data until tonight's model guidance. With that said, that means this also isn't the convective environment that Mr. Jewell was presented with on Friday that spurred him to issue the strongly worded D2 upgrade that he did. He had definitive justification for doing what he did. Point blank, period. But such sudden shifts at the last minute certainly tracks with how all the data has behaved the last several days. It's all been nothing but hot stirred trash water all week long...
There are definite concerns about the evolution of everything that have made holding the outlook at MDT Risk tonight the right call, and if these concerns hold, it doesn't need to upgrade later today either. The thing is, some of the 12z runs of these CAMs that were completely quiet were honestly a little more favorable than these 00z runs that have trended hotter/mixed with the warm sector and develop high-based outflowing storms south of the potential outbreak area. The question marks earlier on Friday mainly revolved around the cap breaking. This is different, and it didn't really start showing its true face in the data until tonight's model guidance. With that said, that means this also isn't the convective environment that Mr. Jewell was presented with on Friday that spurred him to issue the strongly worded D2 upgrade that he did. He had definitive justification for doing what he did. Point blank, period. But such sudden shifts at the last minute certainly tracks with how all the data has behaved the last several days. It's all been nothing but hot stirred trash water all week long...
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I will add this statement to that... I know we had our fun picking at Kerr a minute ago, but if these are the trends that are going to hold, it might be his D2 outlook from Friday morning that ends up being closer to verification for Saturday after all...
6z incoming HRRR is caving to the idea of development in north TX and far southwest OK in an LCL environment higher than 1500-1700m during the late late afternoon and early evening. Storms do start trying to build north up I-35 around 01z, but because of the hotter afternoon temps and dewpoint depressions in the afternoon up closer to I-40 in central OK from the still slowing moisture return, the boundary layer decoupling in central OK starts prior to any developing storms having time to root. Those northward building storms then start fading back away by 02z or so on this run. This run, at least, is caving toward the other CAMs from the 00z cycle.
Tanner
Member
It’s incredible how much confidence can change in an event in such short of time.
Sounds like a giant nothingburger if this boundary decoupling trend holds.
One thing I have noticed is that the core of the 500mb jet on this HRRR run has shifted south compared to where it was on Friday daytime runs for Saturday evening. This has it centered over southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Previous HRRR runs had it centered up over north central Oklahoma. That also helps explain some of the southward focus of the large scale ascent. I'm wondering if and how that may play into the Sunday threat.
I do not envy the Plains forecasters in the least. We have our share of question marks with setups here in Dixie, but things usually aren't this microscopically fickle.
