Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Todd]

I wonder if NOAA SPC has ever backed off a Moderate Risk due to later changes with the forecast?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Well...

Catching up on this thread from overnight has been highly entertaining, but also educational. There was a time, not so long ago when I would have seen that 1730 Day 2 and either dropped everything and pulled out all the stops to get to OK/KS for a chase today; or been highly upset and unpleasant to be around if I wasn't able to do that. I think I've finally learned that even inside of 48 or 36 hours; after watching the pattern approach on the global models for perhaps 200 hours, there are still enough variables at play there's no such thing as a slam-dunk tornado outbreak.

Today still may go big. Or it may not.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Well...

Catching up on this thread from overnight has been highly entertaining, but also educational. There was a time, not so long ago when I would have seen that 1730 Day 2 and either dropped everything and pulled out all the stops to get to OK/KS for a chase today; or been highly upset and unpleasant to be around if I wasn't able to do that. I think I've finally learned that even inside of 48 or 36 hours; after watching the pattern approach on the global models for perhaps 200 hours, there are still enough variables at play there's no such thing as a slam-dunk tornado outbreak.

Today still may go big. Or it may not.

There's honestly been a consistent wholesale degradation in our high-res model data quality since that poorly-performing Parallel global FV3 that got canned for a year was silently made the operational GFS with no warning back in the spring of 2021.... without them doing anything to fix the documented issues there were with it that caused them to completely can it for a year. Data consistency didn't used to be like this not too long ago back into the past. These days, you can't even get the HRRR to take the radar data it ingests hourly as part of its data assimilation process and just hit copy and paste from 00 hr into 01 hr...

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Fred Gossage]

The majority of those are clustered left-moving splits, not right-moving cyclical tornadic supercells. Only a couple out of those are. And that's still not accounting for the environmental issues that have reared their head and kind of consistently locked in.

 

[Todd]

The NWS Norman, OK AFD this morning stating "significant severe weather is possible late this afternoon and this evening, but there are potential complications."

 

[hurricaneguy]

I do not envy any forecaster today. Talk about a sew saw of predictions in the last 24 hrs. From mid to doom.

 

[buckeye05]

Man that AFD is rife with uncertainty.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I do not envy any forecaster today. Talk about a sew saw of predictions in the last 24 hrs. From mid to doom.

...and back.

Round and round and round it goes, where it stops, nobody knows.

 

[jiharris0220]

Unless something drastic happens with the quality of moisture near the dry line and models up trend back to a stronger LLJ earlier in time, I don’t actually see this amounting to much.

 

[tornado examiner]

Unless something drastic happens with the quality of moisture near the dry line and models up trend back to a stronger LLJ earlier in time, I don’t actually see this amounting to much.

Yeah I actually see this event going basically how 5/6 did…basically nothing for hours and then one cell goes crazy…

 

[Bevo]

The runs have been fairly consistent regarding supercells developing in the Texas area, especially running a large supercell toward the DFW metro. This area was upgraded from marginal to a slight already and I have concerns that though the better lift is to the north, it is still a very volatile environment and that cell would be driving right through majorly populated areas. I’m concerned the more significant risk will shift south and into the metro.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[jiharris0220]

I like how they’re being so interactive with the public, it helps remove ambiguity and lets people see what goes through the mind of their forecasters.

Number one way to build trust in a government agency is to show what goes on behind the scenes and show people the inner workings.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Yep. Love it. Even DDC is on it

 

[brianc33710]

"High Risk 5/5 potential is there" but with moisture related issues they've not upgraded yet.

 

[Bevo]

Ft. Worth's NWS office and the local mets I follow have been a bit conservative with the threat so far, but I could see this changing if the area gets an upgrade come the next outlook update.



The thing that I like that they do similar to Norman's office is breaking down areas and timing.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

One thing I have noticed is that the core of the 500mb jet on this HRRR run has shifted south compared to where it was on Friday daytime runs for Saturday evening. This has it centered over southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Previous HRRR runs had it centered up over north central Oklahoma. That also helps explain some of the southward focus of the large scale ascent. I'm wondering if and how that may play into the Sunday threat.

Good question , wonder that increases the severe threat Sunday across mid south Tennessee valley region ?

 

[buckeye05]

Good question , wonder that increases the severe threat Sunday across mid south Tennessee valley region ?

Genuine question. Are you capable of discussing a setup without injecting IMBY bias into it every single time? I don’t think you are.

 

[jiharris0220]

New discussion no longer uses the v word, so I guess they no longer expect that to occur anymore with confidence, though they use the phrase “substantial tornado production” which isn’t something I’ve seen before.