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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

wx_guy

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The 12z HRRR is showing southern OK and northern TX in the mid-upper 90s late this afternoon. To me, today's threat is leaning much towards a large hail and strong wind threat than tornado.
 
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Wow…the problem in late may tampering a catastrophic outbreak…is “slow moisture advection”

Though it seems like morning observations may be contradicting that.
 
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The 12z HRRR is showing southern OK and northern TX in the mid-upper 90s late this afternoon. To me, today's threat is leaning much towards a large hail and strong wind threat than tornado.
Can’t remember the last time an event bounced back and forth in 24 hours from violent outbreak to this.

I don’t envy the SPC desk today.
 

Todd

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Most of the people where I live do not want severe weather tonight. We've already has three weak tornadoes in my immediate area this year, and not to mention May 22, 2011.
 

Maxis_s

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Have temps been uptrending? If both things are uptrending that could still throw a wrench in the setup.
 

wx_guy

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Have temps been uptrending? If both things are uptrending that could still throw a wrench in the setup.
The 6z HRRR yesterday morning had OKC at 86F at 22z today. Today's 12z HRRR has OKC at 91 at 22z. So that could be a big change potentially.
 
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I Don’t buy the models I'm pretty sure moisture is coming in just fine…
Yes but it’s going to have to be that sweet spot to get the optimal LCLs/LFC. If temperatures get up into the high-80s/low-90s in the risk area, that’s going to require even more robust dew points to advect into the area. I believe the maximum TD spread is around 15 degrees, so at 89 degrees you’d need dews around 74-75.
 
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...so moisture isn't a problem anymore?

Note those dewpoints are only in southeastern Oklahoma, and how much drier it is over western Oklahoma.

As @Fred Gossage said, for a higher-end tornado threat with a setup like this you'd like to see a sharp dryline with the richer moisture pulled right up to it; so any supercells that fire are in a primed environment right away, before they start generating cold pools.

Cold pool amalgamation, in part due to sub-optimal moisture at the time of initiation, and in part due to the way the storms moved and interacted, was a big factor that limited the tornado threat with the afternoon supercells in northern Oklahoma on May 6.
 
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