Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[tennessee storm chaser]

Genuine question. Are you capable of discussing a setup without injecting IMBY bias into it every single time? I don’t think you are.

Man. I got Avery short leash to travel due some personal issues dealing with…. Uncalled for there. But carry on

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

New discussion no longer uses the v word, so I guess they no longer expect that to occur anymore with confidence, though they use the phrase “substantial tornado production” which isn’t something I’ve seen before.

Also seem to shrink the 15 percent area tornado risk

 

[CheeselandSkies]

From the ST Discord, regarding Sunday's outlook: "Kerr needs to reassess his time at the SPC."

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

Well that's... not good.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Can’t believe it’s late May, with most likely the last big synoptic driven system of the season, and the big issue is moisture return.

 

[wx_guy]

The 12z HRRR is showing southern OK and northern TX in the mid-upper 90s late this afternoon. To me, today's threat is leaning much towards a large hail and strong wind threat than tornado.

 

[tornado examiner]

Wow…the problem in late may tampering a catastrophic outbreak…is “slow moisture advection”

Though it seems like morning observations may be contradicting that.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

The 12z HRRR is showing southern OK and northern TX in the mid-upper 90s late this afternoon. To me, today's threat is leaning much towards a large hail and strong wind threat than tornado.

Can’t remember the last time an event bounced back and forth in 24 hours from violent outbreak to this.

I don’t envy the SPC desk today.

 

[Todd]

Most of the people where I live do not want severe weather tonight. We've already has three weak tornadoes in my immediate area this year, and not to mention May 22, 2011.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

Have temps been uptrending? If both things are uptrending that could still throw a wrench in the setup.

 

[TornadoFan]

Have temps been uptrending? If both things are uptrending that could still throw a wrench in the setup.

I see temperatures in the low to mid sixties in Central Oklahoma. A bit higher in southeastern OK.

 

[wx_guy]

Have temps been uptrending? If both things are uptrending that could still throw a wrench in the setup.

The 6z HRRR yesterday morning had OKC at 86F at 22z today. Today's 12z HRRR has OKC at 91 at 22z. So that could be a big change potentially.

 

[TornadoFan]

Dewpoints already climbing into the 70s.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

Dewpoints already climbing into the 70s.
View attachment 27734

...so moisture isn't a problem anymore?

 

[tornado examiner]

I Don’t buy the models I'm pretty sure moisture is coming in just fine…

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I Don’t buy the models I'm pretty sure moisture is coming in just fine…

Yes but it’s going to have to be that sweet spot to get the optimal LCLs/LFC. If temperatures get up into the high-80s/low-90s in the risk area, that’s going to require even more robust dew points to advect into the area. I believe the maximum TD spread is around 15 degrees, so at 89 degrees you’d need dews around 74-75.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

...so moisture isn't a problem anymore?

Note those dewpoints are only in southeastern Oklahoma, and how much drier it is over western Oklahoma.

As @Fred Gossage said, for a higher-end tornado threat with a setup like this you'd like to see a sharp dryline with the richer moisture pulled right up to it; so any supercells that fire are in a primed environment right away, before they start generating cold pools.

Cold pool amalgamation, in part due to sub-optimal moisture at the time of initiation, and in part due to the way the storms moved and interacted, was a big factor that limited the tornado threat with the afternoon supercells in northern Oklahoma on May 6.