Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence

[Fred Gossage]

Florence is going nuts. 120 knot winds in the NE eyewall and 945 extrap pressue in the center on this pass.

This thing may be cat 4 before the day is over. This is insane.

That sounds like they may have to do a special update prior to 5pm EDT to upgrade it...

 

[Fred Gossage]

368
WTNT61 KNHC 101556
TCUAT1
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Blake

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

Not even close. Opal was booking. Florence may stall entirely or head into SW VA.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Ok thank you

 

[Daryl]

Good grief!

 

[TuckerTerry]

She's a beast. I sure hope people are heeding the warnings a d getting out.

 

[TuckerTerry]

NOAA updated at noon.

 

[Daryl]

 

[TuckerTerry]

Is it just my eyes, or did they bump her track a bit South with the noon update?

 

[warneagle]

Dropsonde just measured 941 mb, so she's definitely not done strengthening yet.

 

[bjdeming]

 

[Daryl]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 61.1W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

 

[Evan]

Not too important since landfall is still a good bit away, but latest Dvorak sat shows some mild weakening. She peaked at about 6.2 and has now weakened to a 5.8/5.9. Again, not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but any continued weakening (especially if it leads to an EWRC or disrupted core) would be a good thing. Weakening flag is on, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her drop to 5.5ish before she starts to strengthen again. Not clear to me the exact cause of the weakening right now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

 

[Tyler Penland]

Not too important since landfall is still a good bit away, but latest Dvorak sat shows some mild weakening. She peaked at about 6.2 and has now weakened to a 5.8/5.9. Again, not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but any continued weakening (especially if it leads to an EWRC or disrupted core) would be a good thing. Weakening flag is on, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her drop to 5.5ish before she starts to strengthen again. Not clear to me the exact cause of the weakening right now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

Yeah looks like a little dry air might've gotten in on the south side. Also looks like some weak shear on the SW side as well not helping. Won't be enough to hurt it but may curb it's strengthening for now. Recon finding it holding it's own so far.

 

[Kory]

Yeah looks like a little dry air might've gotten in on the south side. Also looks like some weak shear on the SW side as well not helping. Won't be enough to hurt it but may curb it's strengthening for now. Recon finding it holding it's own so far.

Yep, 95L in the NW Caribbean is introducing some shear and entrainment of dry air from its outflow. It is also creating some model shifts east and eroding the ridge more in model outputs. This is all good news...for now.

 

[WesL]

U.S. Navy is saying to thanks to Florence.

From USAToday.com
"The commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command directed nearly 30 ships to steam away from the Hampton Roads area of southeastern Virginia, home to Naval Station Norfolk. Florence is forecast to make landfall in North Carolina late Thursday as a major hurricane and subject the region to high winds and heavy rain. "

 

[warneagle]

maybe the start of an eyewall replacement cycle?

 

[WesL]

1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

 

[Daryl]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

 

[Daryl]

 

[Fred Gossage]

We're seeing a pretty obvious eyewall replacement cycle ongoing right now, but there are indications on satellite data that the classic dual outflow channels are forming. I have a substantial worry for the kind of intensification we're going to see after the eyewall replacement cycle is over...