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Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence

WesL

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Yeah that model intensity looks really "fun"

06L_intensity_latest.png
 

KoD

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Starting to see more GFW/Euro runs making a US landfall around the carolinas/VA
 

WesL

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...FLORENCE POISED TO STRENGTHEN...
...THIS WEEKEND IS A GOOD TIME FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 52.5W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 

akt1985

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The hurricane hunters are now in Bermuda to sample the upper level pattern ahead of Florence. These samples will give us a better idea of how strong the ridge is.
 

rolltide_130

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FWIW, the GFS has actually been trending AWAY from a landfall the last couple of runs, instead stalling Florence off the NC coast and ejecting her back out to sea.
 

Tyler Penland

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Looking pretty ragged at the moment. Should start to really take off the next 48 hours, though. GFS is a strange situation with the stall and possibly landfall at some point.
 

rolltide_130

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KoD

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Still got a lot of room for changes but this is certainly looking like it could be bad. That's some major precipitation to go along with the wind. We'll see just how close to, or past shore Florence gets.
GFS has it skirting the shoreline, ECMWF has a landfall and turning NE well into South Carolina
 
Last edited:

Daryl

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 56.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 

bjdeming

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
435 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-
100845-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
435 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Florence is forecast to become a major hurricane before approaching
the coast of the Carolinas sometime Thursday or Friday. Depending on
the path the storm takes, significant or even catastrophic impacts
from wind and heavy rain are possible. It is critical that you
monitor the latest forecasts on this developing weather situation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Thursday into Friday.

$$
 

JayF

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JayF

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Looking like Florence is going to come up to the coast and loop out according to the models. Only time will tell. Still something to keep our eye on.
 

Jacob

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Looking like Florence is going to come up to the coast and loop out according to the models. Only time will tell. Still something to keep our eye on.

I've only really seen the GFS showing that solution
 
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