Agreed. It's eye is starting to clear up on visible satellite, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a Cat 5 in the next 12-24 hours. HWRF wants to make it look a bit like Isabel on satellite presentation.
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Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
Agreed. It's eye is starting to clear up on visible satellite, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a Cat 5 in the next 12-24 hours. HWRF wants to make it look a bit like Isabel on satellite presentation.
Kory
Member
She's about to go annular.
rolltide_130
Member
She's about to go annular.
Once the eye clears out and gets symmetrical again conditions are going to go south in a hurry..
- Admin
- #84
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
Data from satellites and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission indicate that Florence has completed an overnight
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The recon data indicate that the
eye has now expanded to a diameter of 30-32 n mi, and this was
confirmed by an 1103Z SSMI/S microwave satellite image. The aircraft
provided various intensity estimates with a peak SFMR surface wind
of 113 kt noted in the northwest quadrant, a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 143 kt in the northeast quadrant, and a central
pressure of 950 mb. The 143-kt flight-level wind would normally
correlate to an equivalent surface wind of about 129 kt. However,
coincident SFMR surface winds were only 108 kt, indicating that the
weak convection that region of the hurricane was not vigorous enough
to bring down the strongest winds to the surface. The 950-mb central
pressures corespondents to about 113 kt. Based on a blend of all
these data, the initial intensity has been set to 115 kt.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
Data from satellites and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission indicate that Florence has completed an overnight
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The recon data indicate that the
eye has now expanded to a diameter of 30-32 n mi, and this was
confirmed by an 1103Z SSMI/S microwave satellite image. The aircraft
provided various intensity estimates with a peak SFMR surface wind
of 113 kt noted in the northwest quadrant, a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 143 kt in the northeast quadrant, and a central
pressure of 950 mb. The 143-kt flight-level wind would normally
correlate to an equivalent surface wind of about 129 kt. However,
coincident SFMR surface winds were only 108 kt, indicating that the
weak convection that region of the hurricane was not vigorous enough
to bring down the strongest winds to the surface. The 950-mb central
pressures corespondents to about 113 kt. Based on a blend of all
these data, the initial intensity has been set to 115 kt.
Evan
Member
I agree. And, remember, all that energy eventually has to dissipate somewhere. The potential for a stalling storm to absolutely batter the coast, and then Harvey-esque flooding on top of that, is becoming quite high.
My concern level is off the charts, but not very confident in the overall forecast for landfall location and intensity. Serious impacts no matter what, but how likely are catastrophic impacts?
I was trying to post this right after your post, Jacob, but have a sick toddler right now so I was delayed by a few hours! Florence looks even better than anticipated, so a shot at Cat 5 seems very possible although certainly not guaranteed. But, I'd say better than a 50/50 chance at this point.
maineweatherguy
Member
maineweatherguy
Member
Euro in through 84 at http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png. Stalled miles from Wilmington. Major population center in the NE quad for hours with limited weakening... yikes
Looks a lot like the GFS solution that had it wander around off the coast. Ugly - no steering winds at landfall. Just hope it doesn't walk up or down the coast - I'd rather it sit there in one place and upwell.
Dangit. What the heck, ECMWF? Coastwalker.
- Admin
- #90
Wow that is quite the drop south from what the NHC has it.
Oh, it started with it heading toward landfall in the right place, where NHC has it - then just walked down the coast to there.
Kory
Member
No sweeping trough to catch this thing like many other hurricanes that approach the SE Coast have. It gets trapped underneath the ridge.
maineweatherguy
Member
High res ECMWF graphics for the stall are insane. You can check 'em out completely free (forever) https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/769-w-343-n/base-reflectivity/20180914-0900z.html (all our parameters can be explored with the menus to the left of the image). use (-) button to zoom out if you want a broader view 
Best case scenario would be for it to stall a little further offshore, and sit there and upwell cooler water before weakening and eventually moving onshore. Would take quite a stroke of luck for that to happen though. As it stands, that run of the Euro is horrible for NC.
Yeah, how about no, ECMWF.
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How about hell no!
TuckerTerry
Member
Without steering winds? Absolutely it can happen. Will it? Unknown - depends on the strength of the ridging. Models have been showing SW movement either right before or right after landfall though, so there's model support. But they've also shown it going the opposite direction. Key take away is this - there is almost no certainty what it's going to do with no steering winds.
The flooding in the Appalachians would be historic. I almost wrote will - pretty much wherever it goes, the flooding is going to be awful.
Evan
Member
With the stall and coast riding...surge and flooding are clearly going to impact a broader area and a greater number of people. Intensity at first contact with land, amount of time stalling out, how quickly she weakens, and 50+/- nm in location may be the difference between this storm absolutely devastating parts of NC/SC or a lower impact event in which the worst winds stay off land until she weakens, flooding concentrated primarily in coastal areas, etc.
Basically, we don't know if we're going to get a Top 10 event or a much less serious, albeit significant, brush with a Cat 1-2.
Trust me, I'm not trying to downplay anything. I'm simply pointing out how insane it is that 48-60 hours out we don't know if we're going to get an absolute worst case scenario, or a hell of a scare with moderate impacts.
I'd hate to be the government officials, first responders, EMA, FEMA, etc trying to figure out the best course of action. If you wait too long, panic and lack of time become a serious encumbrance to evacuations and planning. We could even see this thing trend further south and slam into Beaufort/Hilton Head/Savannah as a Cat 4.
Can anyone think of some systems with high-end potential that has such uncertainty? Irma is a good example, I think, but because of her later landfall in a fairly desolate area, the worst potential impacts were largely spared.
Basically, we don't know if we're going to get a Top 10 event or a much less serious, albeit significant, brush with a Cat 1-2.
Trust me, I'm not trying to downplay anything. I'm simply pointing out how insane it is that 48-60 hours out we don't know if we're going to get an absolute worst case scenario, or a hell of a scare with moderate impacts.
I'd hate to be the government officials, first responders, EMA, FEMA, etc trying to figure out the best course of action. If you wait too long, panic and lack of time become a serious encumbrance to evacuations and planning. We could even see this thing trend further south and slam into Beaufort/Hilton Head/Savannah as a Cat 4.
Can anyone think of some systems with high-end potential that has such uncertainty? Irma is a good example, I think, but because of her later landfall in a fairly desolate area, the worst potential impacts were largely spared.
