Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence

[warneagle]

I have to admit that's a relieving change from our perspective. I wouldn't wish it on anyone else obviously but we really couldn't handle the amount of rain they were forecasting up here a couple of days ago.

 

[Bama Ravens]

So is there another ERC underway?

 

[maineweatherguy]

Another pretty crazy Euro run with the center meandering 5-10 miles offshore, while the NE quad scours the coast from Jacksonville to Wilmington and then beyond. Storm a little weaker on its SW drift compared to yesterday, probably reasonable given upwelling. Free/sharable ECMWF via https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/785-w-343-n/gusts-3h-mph/20180914-2100z.html

 

[maineweatherguy]

Latest EPS (http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png) lot of members doing the stall. One lone recurve

 

[maineweatherguy]

Some pretty wacky solutions mixed in here. Stall/loop or retrograde SW/onshore is the basic idea. But that could take a lot of different forms http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png

 

[maineweatherguy]

If we can get this ring of -70C cloud tops to close off and maintain itself around the eye, and if we can eliminate that dry air on the western side, whoever finds the core is gonna have some big time troubles down the line. Right on the cusp of taking it to the 'next level' IMO, we'll see if it actually happens. Link to where I got this image from: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2

 

[Daryl]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 70.1W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

 

[Daryl]

 

[maineweatherguy]

Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case you don't already have one or are looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)

 

[JayF]

Live webcam from myrtle beach.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd

 

[Kory]

Will be interesting to see the 500mb map when it comes in for 12z. That ridging over the NE U.S. is pretty stout...593dm...which may lend credence to the Euro solution more so than the GFS which plows it into the ridge.

 

[South AL Wx]

NWS Raleigh says that the ridge across the SE states is stronger than previous model solutions. From their discussion:

06Z/special release upr air data over the sern US this morning
indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20
meters stronger than even 00Z, 6hr model forecasts. This
strengthening ridge is separated from an even stronger sub-tropical
ridge situated several hundred miles n of Bermuda, by a tropopause-
level trough axis stretching from about 100 miles east of HSE sswwd
to an embedded circulation 200 miles east of JAX, sswd to another
circulation centered about 150 miles north of the Yucatan. The
presence of both that trough axis, and the developing/expanding
ridge over the sern US, will ultimately serve to slow/halt the nwwd
progress of powerful Hurricane Florence, particularly by Thu, when
the anomalously strong ridge n of Bermuda weakens and drifts swwd.

 

[akt1985]

The forecast now is for Florence to come in as a category 3 hurricane. Still, the surge may be more like a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

 

[Jacob]

Looks like another ERC is underway. Going to be a massive eye after this cycle is complete

 

[Daryl]

 

[WesL]

Did anyone else spot this tweet... GEEZ

 

[TuckerTerry]

Did anyone else spot this tweet... GEEZ

My God.

 

[South AL Wx]

The latest forecast track is very similar to the previous one:

 

[WesL]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Corrected second headline

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 71.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

 

[bjdeming]

Beautiful, yet horrifying, especially near the images of Clueless Sailboaters. Thanks to the discussion here, I can also appreciate how remarkable that "foaminess" around the eye is, indicating intense activity, so close to the blue edge of the storm (where Florence is fending off shear).