Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence

[Tyler Penland]

Geez I'll take a no from that euro run. Have to think those rain totals are jnderdone in the mountains too. Perfect setup for insane upslope totals.

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[Kory]

With the stall and coast riding...surge and flooding are clearly going to impact a broader area and a greater number of people. Intensity at first contact with land, amount of time stalling out, how quickly she weakens, and 50+/- nm in location may be the difference between this storm absolutely devastating parts of NC/SC or a lower impact event in which the worst winds stay off land until she weakens, flooding concentrated primarily in coastal areas, etc.

Basically, we don't know if we're going to get a Top 10 event or a much less serious, albeit significant, brush with a Cat 1-2.

Trust me, I'm not trying to downplay anything. I'm simply pointing out how insane it is that 48-60 hours out we don't know if we're going to get an absolute worst case scenario, or a hell of a scare with moderate impacts.

I'd hate to be the government officials, first responders, EMA, FEMA, etc trying to figure out the best course of action. If you wait too long, panic and lack of time become a serious encumbrance to evacuations and planning. We could even see this thing trend further south and slam into Beaufort/Hilton Head/Savannah as a Cat 4.

Can anyone think of some systems with high-end potential that has such uncertainty? Irma is a good example, I think, but because of her later landfall in a fairly desolate area, the worst potential impacts were largely spared.

Hurricane Matthew in 2015 is a good example. Ceiling was very high, but the angle of approach led to a lot of uncertainty. It ultimately was a dodged bullet.

 

[maineweatherguy]

Thanks for the warm welcome @WesL! Glad to be here!

While operational models can always do funky things like the 12z Euro, it's not every day we see an entire 51 member, well dispersed ensemble do the same... Yikes

 

[TuckerTerry]

Reading on Twitter that some of the So. Carolina evac orders have been rescinded. Not good looking at this latest data.

 

[JS3564MiMo]

Okay. I've been lurking/reading all of these comments trying to remain calm. Not working. I've got a son, my Marine, currently at Camp Geiger, which is at the north west end of Camp Lejeune, near Jacksonville, NC. Camp Lejeune is currently under what the Corps calls "TCC III" which means tropical cyclone conditions are expected in the next 72 hrs. I've also got grandchildren now living in Savannah, GA. Anybody got suggestions on how to keep calm? Please don't say "Wait for him to call" as the Corps has his phone. #worried

 

[WesL]

Okay. I've been lurking/reading all of these comments trying to remain calm. Not working. I've got a son, my Marine, currently at Camp Geiger, which is at the north west end of Camp Lejeune, near Jacksonville, NC. Camp Lejeune is currently under what the Corps calls "TCC III" which means tropical cyclone conditions are expected in the next 72 hrs. I've also got grandchildren now living in Savannah, GA. Anybody got suggestions on how to keep calm? Please don't say "Wait for him to call" as the Corps has his phone. #worried

Well I know in the past with a family member in the military, they often grant a phone privilege so they can check in during these types of events. We have some time before all this goes down they all should have some time to prepare. It will be a unique experience for them. Nothing official for Savannah as of yet but I know in the past their emergency managers are normally on point. I know you don't wanna hear it but it really is a wait and see. Stick with us and let us know if you hear from your son and if the Savannah crew decides to head south or west.

As for staying calm, I do word games. I'm horrible at them but they do a good job of distracting me.

P.S. When you do talk to your son, please tell him thank you for his service. We also appreciate parents like you that support their decisions to serve. We will get through this together!

 

[TuckerTerry]

5 pm... they aren't believing Euro.

 

[Kory]

They will slowly adjust toward the TVCN (or consensus model which includes a myriad of products) as they still have time to do so (the real changes come day 4+ with the Euro). They're still slightly north of the latest update of the TVCN. Tonight's 00z runs of both the global models, as well as hurricane models, will have flight atmospheric sample data. Will be interesting.

One thing of note...the GFS has an east bias, but the Euro has a west bias. Just look at how horribly the Euro handled Gordon. Something to keep in the back of your mind.

 

[Bama Ravens]

NHC has it getting to 155mph tomorrow PM. 156 is Cat. 5.

 

[WesL]

800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 67.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

 

[Kory]

Still struggling to completely close off the eyewall. Somewhat ragged on satellite, but its still a very dangerous storm.

 

[Evan]

NHC has it getting to 155mph tomorrow PM. 156 is Cat. 5.

Very possible she gets there late this evening or early tomorrow morning. She ingested a slug of dry air earlier and has spit it back out like it was nothing. Shear is tough to predict, but barring increased shear or a huge slug of dry air that really disrupts her core, I think she's going to get to very close to Cat 5 within the next 12 hours.

 

[Kory]

Will be interesting what recon finds. Satellite-derived wind speeds are lower than the official advisory...130mph vs 140mph (yeah, both are still very strong winds). It's gonna need that impending WSW shear (you can see it over the Bahamas as the cloud tops get blown west to east quickly) which is pushing dry air into the system to actually really ramp up. 95L seems to be impeding rapid strengthening...so far.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv-mid

 

[Evan]

Will be interesting what recon finds. Satellite-derived wind speeds are lower than the official advisory...130mph vs 140mph (yeah, both are still very strong winds). It's gonna need that impending WSW shear (you can see it over the Bahamas as the cloud tops get blown west to east quickly) which is pushing dry air into the system to actually really ramp up. 95L seems to be impeding rapid strengthening...so far.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv-mid

Yeah, there's definitely some SW shear that caused the CDO to become a bit asymmetrical earlier. It's a testament to her organization and the SSTs that so far it has only had a mild impact on her. She looks better than 2 hours ago, but the shear may prevent her from making a run at Cat 5. Tonight will be interesting. Dvorak T's were around 6.2ish and she's dropped to 5.8 at last measurement. But, recent sat images show a decent rebound so I think she'll get back up to 5.9-6.0 fairly easily.

All depends on that shear you mentioned and if it can shear off the SW quad or slam more dry air into her.

We'll know soon enough...

 

[Kory]

Strongest winds were 126kt flight level, so likely ~125mph at the surface. She's weakened some.

 

[Evan]

Strongest winds were 126kt flight level, so likely ~125mph at the surface. She's weakened some.

Yeah, but pressure has remarkably stayed almost the same. You know what that means...wind field size is increasing. Surge implications likely; especially if we continue to see a continued wind field expansion.

I'm not fully sold on that much of a wind speed drop just yet. I want to see the next recon as I really don't think IR or Dvorak sat support that much weakening.

 

[akt1985]

Still a 140 mph cat 4 with latest advisory.

 

[WesL]

1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

 

[champal3003]

New cone shifting further west into AL.

 

[MattW]

I'm seeing more model consensus on a southerly track toward Atlanta after landfall. It doesn't look to be as bad as Irma, but could still be close.