Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024

[buckeye05]

Trey and SPC seem to be leaning more and more toward the idea of supercell initiation along the dryline, especially in SW Kansas. Some of the recent CAM runs seem to suggest this scenario as well.

Meanwhile, DDC hasn’t updated their forecast discussion since 2:00 a.m., which is suggesting little to no supercell development, followed by an after-dark squall line. Curious to see if they change their tune in the next discussion update.

 

[TornadoFan]

Already seeing CAPE up to 3000 in North central Kansas.

 

[warneagle]

Hello baby supes. We just got an upgrade to ENH here on the east coast as well.

 

[warneagle]

New SVR watch is up too.

 

[warneagle]

And now a SVR warning. This one was dropping golf balls on the radar site in Sterling, further proof for the “radars are severe magnets” theory.

 

[warneagle]

Some pea-sized/sub-severe hail here in southwest DC.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch coming for Nebraska.

 

[jiharris0220]

Lol, hrrr you got to be kidding me.

 

[TornadoFan]

Lol, hrrr you got to be kidding me.
View attachment 25417View attachment 25418

???

 

[Muwx]

???

Glad I’m not the only one who doesn’t understand that post.

 

[jiharris0220]

I mean it’s pretty easy to see the two screen shots and compare reality vs model and deduct that the hrrr storm initiation is busting horrifically.
It still has no storms at 6pm despite their already being two full fledged supercells.

 

[Muwx]

I mean it’s pretty easy to see the two screen shots and compare reality vs model and deduct that the hrrr storm initiation is busting horrifically.
It still has no storms at 6pm despite their already being two full fledged supercells.

Full fledged supercells is a bit of a stretch. The two cells in Texas are clearly struggling and the entire dry line is pretty much void of towers.

 

[jiharris0220]

They wouldn’t be severe warned if they weren’t full fledged.
Storms aren’t supposed to fire in Kansas (if at all) until 10 to 11pm when surface temps fall closer to dew points.

 

[Muwx]

They wouldn’t be severe warned if they weren’t full fledged.
Storms aren’t supposed to fire in Kansas (if at all) until 10 to 11pm when surface temps fall closer to dew points.

If they re-up the warning on the only warned cell, I’ll agree but I do not see that happening.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

If they re-up the warning on the only warned cell, I’ll agree but I do not see that happening.

I mean not that he asked me but concerning convective development in the risk area, HRRR has nailed it so far.

 

[jiharris0220]

Im sorry to say Tempest but full fledged storms tend to be severe warned, which they still are, and I don’t know if I offended you at some point in the past years but I digress.
The hrrr has handled moisture, instability and convection poorly. And continues to do so now, regardless of initiation or not, which again isn’t expected until 10pm.

 

[TornadoFan]

For what it's worth, we've got supercells firing NW of Abeline, TX.

 

[jiharris0220]

They’re in a prime environment, unclear if any become surfaced based and take advantage.

 

[jiharris0220]

Elevated cumulus field making itself known. Should start to get some cells by 9pm earliest, hoping for a none event to those that live in the path.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Watching the radar loop of the storms moving NE from the Apsermont, TX vicinity, it appears the cells keep splitting with the right splits (would-be tornadic cells) consistently getting snuffed out by the cap. Shades of my May 26, 2021 Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency in west-central Kansas.