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Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024

OUN’s AFD for tomorrow:

***Severe Storms*** Looking at possibly two rounds of storms
tomorrow and tomorrow night. The first round would trigger off the
dryline late tomorrow afternoon in central to north Texas as a
shortwave moves over the region. This appears well depicted in the
CAMs, tracking eastward along the Red River (possibly affecting
south central Oklahoma late in the evening). Instability and shear
are plentiful to support severe hail and wind; low level (0-1 km)
SRH appears marginal and more confined to the west, yielding a low
risk for tornadoes early on with this cluster of storms.

The second round would be overnight as the Pacific front surges
eastward under the influence of the upper low. Most of the CAMs seem
less enthusiastic about this round, despite ample instability and
shear (our opinion is that the CAMs are underforecasting convection
given the atmospheric conditions). Additionally, the low level jet
will be quite strong by this point, yielding stronger low level
shear and a higher (though still within the low category) risk of
tornadoes with any storms that do develop.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Honestly why is this thread so dead? I would’ve figured a highly conditional dry line event would create more discourse.
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I think part of it is probably just the way the perceived main threat day (Monday) has evolved and overall uncertainties with the setup, as well as the locality of a lot of the users, i.e. the Deep South. That being said, it remains a fascinating setup.
 
Clancy said:
I think part of it is probably just the way the perceived main threat day (Monday) has evolved and overall uncertainties with the setup, as well as the locality of a lot of the users, i.e. the Deep South. That being said, it remains a fascinating setup.
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Agreed. Went from a D6 30% that downtrended as the week went on. I’m sure this board would love to armchair chase a plains outbreak, but Tuesday looks (iffy IMO) to be the main show.
 
My current thoughts: Watch for that Day 3 (Tuesday) Slight Risk to get expanded eastward into North MS and maybe clipping Northwest AL followed by a Enhanced Risk upgrade over Northern Louisiana, Central Arkansas, and Northwest MS.
 
Yeah, that seems like kind of a big error prior to an event that could be significant with adequate moisture.

Too much spiking of the football btw for an event that could turn on a dime over the course of an hour's difference.
 
Well said Andy, this is really reminding me of last year’s Cole's outbreak and 1999. Very conditional dry line setups that had extreme kinematics but people just simply couldn’t be sure at all if things were going to convect.
For the sake of the people who live in these areas things don’t.
 
I know I’m not all knowing in the weather field and just like reading about it. I suck at models and so on. Am too bad at math to be a meteorologist.
BUT. I think we should pay attention to any threat and the fact that so many have failed to live up to expectations puts everyone at risk of blowing off something that may sneak up on you. You don’t want to accidentally find a wolf just because you’re tired of hearing about them showing up so you think they no longer will.
Did I mention I’m bad at analogies too?
Ok that’s my input carry on.
 
Tempestas Tonitrua said:
A level 4/5 alert yielding 10 tornado reports is going to absolutely dent some of the public’s trust and perception more than some teenage weenie on social media hollering “Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency” ever will.
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Completely disagree with the reports having any impact of the public’s perception. The general public does not follow up on events to see if they verify. They measure the verification of an outbreak based on what happens in their neighborhood or if it affects their daily schedule. If it didn’t affect those things, it doesn’t matter if there were 40 tornadoes elsewhere, it was a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.

You would be amazed at the answers you receive while surveying or participating in public education events. Unfortunately, you can’t make people educate themselves. They’d rather rely on an almanac or grandpa’s gout to be their weather source.
 
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Getting close enough to the event where obs are going to give us a better picture than models, but worth noting that the official SPC mesoanalysis (RAP model) is maintaining a much higher CAPE for the threat area than anything the HRRR is producing at +6 hours.

Moisture return won't be an issue. The cap will call the day.
 
At the end of the day, public perception is just that, perception, the fact of the matter is that all events “Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency” to someone.
Even the 2011 super outbreak was a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency to people that didn’t get hit by a tornado that day. And events like May 20th, 2019 were far from a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency to the people who did get hit.
Reality is that people just don’t pay attention to the weather, let alone what the SPC post, most just take a quick look on their highly inaccurate weather apps and judge on a event busting or not on wether they specifically get hit by a tornado.
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
 
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