Muwx
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- 454
- Location
- Republic Mo
May 4, 2003 showing up. What a day that was.
Yeah. Chased all day n evening that day …. We had ef4 hit a Mile from my house that night Sunday nightMay 4, 2003 showing up. What a day that was.
Yeah..agreed.If the 12z euro and nam models correct , could be looking at a substantial tornado outbreak around and just west of the Mississippi River areas , delta surrounding area .hodos are Indicating large super cells that could go tornadic quickly , with the wind profiles showing …. Tuesday to me looks more like a tornado threat than Monday now …. Without doubt spc will have increase probs for the area mentioned. Edit….looking deeper into
One thing I’m noticing for Tuesday on the lastest NAM run soundings are some weird wind profiles in some of the threat area. I think with the trough ejection issue, I don’t want to write off Monday’s threat, but Tuesday May be the play. Although I still see some issues with that set up.Yeah..agreed.
Both NAM and HRRR have a much "messier" trough ejection, which would likely reduce the ceiling on Monday's threat.
But Tuesday looks primed for a possible tornado outbreak from Iowa to AR/MS.
Good call IMHO.D2 remains Enhanced, but only 5% tornado probs.
View attachment 25393
They can always go up, and it's a big 5% so it gives them room for decision making later.Good call IMHO.
I understand the strong verbiage around their initial outline 6/7 days ago because of what the models were showing at the time. But man, the Monday portion of this threat really fell apart fast, questions around Tuesdays ceiling notwithstanding.Not exactly the wording you want to see, lol.
"it`s important to reiterate that the confidence in dryline convection is very low at this time as multiple factors need to come together just right (sufficient "just in time" low-level moisture return, cap breaks, sustained updraft/minimal dry air entrainment) in order for this to happen."
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