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Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024

Synoptically, two favored regions for severe storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening will be within the left-exit region of the intense
mid-level jet in parts of IA/MO/IL, and over the Ark-La-Tex into the
Mid-South where frontal convection will intersect with the richer
low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. A
broad severe weather highlight remains warranted, with areas of
higher probabilities likely being needed in later outlooks as
mesoscale details become clearer given that the instability/buoyancy
plume should be confined and modulated by late D3-early D4
convection.
 
Unsurprisingly the higher resolution nam models a far more volatile environment than what we’ve seen so far from the Synoptic scale models.
1713019912215.png
The Fv3 has supercells firing the earliest, although despite its known bias of modeling larger updrafts, if instability is high enough, this is a real possibility.
1713020073995.png
 
If the 12z euro and nam models correct , could be looking at a substantial tornado outbreak around and just west of the Mississippi River areas , delta surrounding area .hodos are Indicating large super cells that could go tornadic quickly , with the wind profiles showing …. Tuesday to me looks more like a tornado threat than Monday now …. Without doubt spc will have increase probs for the area mentioned. Edit….looking deeper into it, indications could even see couple least strong tornadoes , very least. Don’t want use the V word just yet to describe tornadoes might see. But hodographs really not that far from it
 
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If the 12z euro and nam models correct , could be looking at a substantial tornado outbreak around and just west of the Mississippi River areas , delta surrounding area .hodos are Indicating large super cells that could go tornadic quickly , with the wind profiles showing …. Tuesday to me looks more like a tornado threat than Monday now …. Without doubt spc will have increase probs for the area mentioned. Edit….looking deeper into
Yeah..agreed.
Both NAM and HRRR have a much "messier" trough ejection, which would likely reduce the ceiling on Monday's threat.
But Tuesday looks primed for a possible tornado outbreak from Iowa to AR/MS.
 
Yeah..agreed.
Both NAM and HRRR have a much "messier" trough ejection, which would likely reduce the ceiling on Monday's threat.
But Tuesday looks primed for a possible tornado outbreak from Iowa to AR/MS.
One thing I’m noticing for Tuesday on the lastest NAM run soundings are some weird wind profiles in some of the threat area. I think with the trough ejection issue, I don’t want to write off Monday’s threat, but Tuesday May be the play. Although I still see some issues with that set up.

In true 2024 season fashion, so far we are presented with a very conditional/dynamic system again, no slam dunk or widespread model agreement on this system yet.
 
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Not exactly the wording you want to see, lol.

"it`s important to reiterate that the confidence in dryline convection is very low at this time as multiple factors need to come together just right (sufficient "just in time" low-level moisture return, cap breaks, sustained updraft/minimal dry air entrainment) in order for this to happen."

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 
Based on what SPC has, North and Central MS have at least 3 opportunities for severe weather/tornado threat coming up:

Tuesday/Wednesday
Wednesday/Thursday
Next Weekend
 
Not exactly the wording you want to see, lol.

"it`s important to reiterate that the confidence in dryline convection is very low at this time as multiple factors need to come together just right (sufficient "just in time" low-level moisture return, cap breaks, sustained updraft/minimal dry air entrainment) in order for this to happen."

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
I understand the strong verbiage around their initial outline 6/7 days ago because of what the models were showing at the time. But man, the Monday portion of this threat really fell apart fast, questions around Tuesdays ceiling notwithstanding.
 
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