KevinH
Member
Welp… SPC highlighted a 30% corridor in central OK, parts of N Cntrl Tx, S Cntrl Kansas, with an even larger area of 15% surrounding.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond.
The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area.
A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Primary feature of concern will be an amplified upper low that is initially off the CA coast at 12Z Saturday. This low should dampen as it steadily progresses across the Southwest, before amplifying once again as it emerges onto the central Great Plains sometime on D6, as a separate shortwave trough digs towards the Pacific Northwest. Timing spread within the 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance appears larger relative to yesterday, with the 00Z ECMWF decidedly trending farther east over the past 24 hours. It appears to be on the eastern envelope compared to its ensemble members. The overall forecast impact is with regard to dryline placement and surface cyclone evolution during the day on Monday and beyond.
The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area.
A lesser severe threat will probably continue into D7/Tuesday. But even further spatial uncertainty, in conjunction with the impact of the prior day convection and consensus signal for the deep cyclone to occlude northeastward, renders low confidence for highlighting a severe threat area yet. The area-of-interest appears to have shifted more to the east relative to yesterday, in an arc around the eastern Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex.