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Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024

I'm honestly just confused with tomorrow's overall setup. Personally, it's screaming classic southern plains tornado setup to me, but I feel like it's not being taken seriously enough. However, with the classic plains setup that also means it has some chance of being a blue sky Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency (although in this case, seemingly cloudy), and I don't feel the overall timing is completely perfect. Obviously, the mets at the SPC have dealt with this situation before so we should trust their judgment, but I just don't see how the current 5% tornado forecast justifies the risk especially if there's stronger forcing than anticipated or a weaker cap.

IMO, there should at least be a 10% hatched and possibly even a 15% hatched in western OK for tomorrow. I'm not a met though, so maybe I'm wrong.
 
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I actually for the life of me can’t wrap my head around the 5% risk.
The lapse rates aren’t subpar, the cape is far beyond good enough, helicity values range between 200-500s^2m^2, LLJ is forecasted to be 60+knots, and moisture return at least up to 700mb is good to go.
I’m assuming this revolves around the uncertainty if storms are going to initiate or not. I hope we don’t get another April 19-20 situation.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I actually for the life of me can’t wrap my head around the 5% risk.
The lapse rates aren’t subpar, the cape is far beyond good enough, helicity values range between 200-500s^2m^2, LLJ is forecasted to be 60+knots, and moisture return at least up to 700mb is good to go.
I’m assuming this revolves around the uncertainty if storms are going to initiate or not.
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Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the cap and the amount of available lift end up being what makes or breaks this event. In the meantime, all we can do is watch and wait...
 
jiharris0220 said:
I actually for the life of me can’t wrap my head around the 5% risk.
The lapse rates aren’t subpar, the cape is far beyond good enough, helicity values range between 200-500s^2m^2, LLJ is forecasted to be 60+knots, and moisture return at least up to 700mb is good to go.
I’m assuming this revolves around the uncertainty if storms are going to initiate or not.
Click to expand...
We have got to start tapping into some Caribbean moisture ….we want have something big worth chasing .
 
Hey guys, can we stop with this baseless bashing of the SPC? Obviously constructive discussion is encouraged but straight up calling them theatrical and alarmist needs an extreme amount of proof and data to back up, otherwise this place doesn’t seem any different than twitter right now.
Anyways, they did add a 10% hatched for tornadoes just in case the cap does break.
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Can we just focus on the actual event instead of bashing SPC for changing their tune. It's weather. It changes. That's basic meteorology 101.
 
lake.effect said:
A D2 MOD for parts of Iowa/MO wouldn't surprise me. Potent setup.
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They differ on placement; but 12Z HRRR and 3KM NAM are in agreement that a potent parameter space should develop even in the relatively narrow dry slot behind the first round of storms; with supercells firing within it. They (actually, moreso just the HRRR) also suggest that the environment ahead of the first round might even have enough time to recharge that it could pose a significant severe threat in its own right.

Some of the issues I noted over the past 36 hours with wonky mid-to-upper level shear profiles/sharp veer-backing above 700mb have also resolved themselves to some extent (although still present) on the forecast soundings as of these more recent runs.

If supercells track into western Illinois near the Macomb-Beardstown vicinity (which, anecdotally, seems to be one of those local favored corridors for tornadic storms to track) as the HRRR suggests, the shear profiles in that area look pretty darn good. The 3KM NAM actually has a similar depiction, only with the storms further west in southeast IA/NE MO.
 
The SPC has had a few rough days recently, but they are usually pretty decent. They are doing the best they can do with the data they have. Before the storm day, their interpretation of the models usually isn't that far off from my opinions and thousands of others.

Bottomline is predicting the future is tough, especially predicting the future of a chaotic fluid. Instead of bashing the SPC and meteorologists...we all should be out there storm chasing, collecting data, and helping drive the need for better models, better data, and better knowledge of how storms work.

For most violent tornado outbreaks, the best we can do is predict if, when, and where supercells may form. After that its purely watch and see mode. 100% observational at that point. I think like 20% of supercells actually produce a tornado. We still don't understand why some supercells produce and others that look perfect don't produce anything. Answering that question is the holy grail of meteorology.

There are days that really make us scratch our head and let us realize that there is so much we don't understand. I remember a day a few years ago in South MS where the sky turned into the literal supercell machine we commonly see on the FV3. Every cell had a tight couplet on velocity, and hardly any of those storms produced. I was convinced I was about to witness an exceptional tornado outbreak....and nothing happened. I've also seen slight risk days (Days which I agreed with the SPC and didn't think much would happen)... produce numerous long track sig tors. excrement happens.
 
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