Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

CheeselandSkies said:
Can't really count on any time of year being safe from severe weather in the South...and in the summer there are landfalling TCs to contend with as well.

I don't see any of the radars in the northern Midwest on that link, but for example scheduling one on KMKX from May through August would be asking for trouble, but watch, they'll schedule it for March and a significant severe threat will materialize for that week.
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CheeselandSkies said:
Can't really count on any time of year being safe from severe weather in the South...and in the summer there are landfalling TCs to contend with as well.

I don't see any of the radars in the northern Midwest on that link, but for example scheduling one on KMKX from May through August would be asking for trouble, but watch, they'll schedule it for March and a significant severe threat will materialize for that week.
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Well here in the south, severe weather is most likely to happen between the months November-April, so that is why I said May through October.

You live in Wisconsin, so the timeline is different.

All I am saying is to conduct these tests, updates, and upgrades during the time of year when severe weather is LEAST likely (not impossible) to occur.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
The threat for the south Texas Gulf Coastal region looks significant. Should guidance continue with this same look overnight we probably should get a 30% added to the Day 4 for that area.
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100% agree! I think what we got to recognize now is that, the regions along the Gulf Coast and a bit inland are starting to secure the likelihood off some significant severe storms. Less confidence in the northward extent which will have to be monitored
 
JBishopwx said:
Brandon radar will be down mid Feburary and Columbus AFB mid March.
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Well we can count on a significant tornado outbreak for North MS mid March then since KGWX will be down. KGWX goes down when a little wind hits it.
 
Looking at the 12z euro it has a more broader 500mb trough. That's bad news , better chance at discrete convection especially considering that the cold front pushes out to a north south orientation.... So many little synoptic scale things are coming together it makes me uneasy I hope this turns into a nothing burger.
 
KevinH said:
I swear they wait until they see a threat THEN decide to start one of these updates SMH
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Mine at KGSP Greer was down as the last big system came through. Getting a from-the-ground-up everything here so it's gonna take awhile. It's been about ten years since I spoke with the NWS radar tech for this area and he told me scheduling non-critical repairs had a 4- 6 month lead-time mostly because they're always tied up with emergency repairs on the old stuff and they were always short-staffed. Probably the same now :(

WYFF TV 4 has a doppler radar but I'm not as familiar with it so all I get from it is their default base reflectivity; the NWS has full access to it so they're not too handicapped with their own radar down :)
 
One of the saving graces of this event is timing. The last few runs of globals have slowed it down to a night event. Which we should consider could change back. Here is Andrews MMFS SBCAPE forecast 1000-1500 range is do able for sustaining substantial severe. Just look at April 15, 2011 and November 17, 2013 in the Midwest both events ran off the 1000-1500 amount.

IF the event comes through mid day afternoon and speeds up like the earlier runs today by globals expect those values to rise. And your one caveat for limiting this event that I can think of will be non existent. Reaching 1500sb cape at night in January is a feat of its own. You don't want this environment to have the heat of day as well. Given the parameters on the MMFS you're already reaching 2000+ in portions of south Alabama and south Mississippi at midnight and early morning so it may not even matter if we don't get the heating of the day.

If you live south of the i20 corridor from Alabama west I'd say prepare for the possibility of some significant weather, I'd like to see more mesoscale support. But from past events this guy's model has done decent.

sbcape.000027.pngsbcape.000022.pngsbcape.000020.png
 
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The 500mb pattern on the 18z GFS as well as both the 12z Euro/Canadian is very concerning. While issues with how far north the warm front gets plus the extent of the threat, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the threat is further north and east. Regardless though, we're gonna have a lot of strong winds outside of the thunderstorms.
 

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JPWX said:
The 500mb pattern on the 18z GFS as well as both the 12z Euro/Canadian is very concerning. While issues with how far north the warm front gets plus the extent of the threat, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the threat is further north and east. Regardless though, we're gonna have a lot of strong winds outside of the thunderstorms.
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A lot of this setup semi favors November 17, 2013 that's the one event I keep coming back too to look at oddly enough.
 
KevinH said:
*looks it up*
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Reading through some skip Talbot's chaser blogs on that day. He mentions dynamic lifting can negate some of the lack of instability.

Extreme amounts of dynamic lifting will be available Tuesday. So many little things that can fill in and be sufficient for a weather event. Instability is a form of lift like dynamic lift. But you gotta be rooted at the surface which MMFS shows abundant surface level instability. 1000j of instability will be plenty for this event... 1000j was a similar amount to the November 17 2013 event, both events have similar synoptic details but also have a few differences..

Lol sorry if I post to much guys, I get very excited by the weather, my wife thinks I love the weather more than her hahahah. These are just my ramblings and thoughts, not professional forecasts more so insights or nuggets I see that might make a difference
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Reading through some skip Talbot's chaser blogs on that day. He mentions dynamic lifting can negate some of the lack of instability.

Extreme amounts of dynamic lifting will be available Tuesday. So many little things that can fill in and be sufficient for a weather event. Instability is a form of lift like dynamic lift. But you gotta be rooted at the surface which MMFS shows abundant surface level instability. 1000j of instability will be plenty for this event... 1000j was a similar amount to the November 17 2013 event, both events have similar synoptic details but also have a few differences..
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Nov 17 was MUUUUUCH further north. Are you thinking/saying that is the only difference between that system and next week’s system?

UncleJuJu98 said:
Lol sorry if I post to much guys, I get very excited by the weather, my wife thinks I love the weather more than her hahahah. These are just my ramblings and thoughts, not professional forecasts more so insights or nuggets I see that might make a difference
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That’s ok.. doesn’t bother me lol
 
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