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Severe WX Severe Weather threat for 7/19-7/22/18

Do you think a moderate risk will come out of this threat?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 45.5%

  • No

    Votes: 5 22.7%

  • An enhanced risk, but not a moderate

    Votes: 6 27.3%

  • It should be a high risk for the wind threat

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
There's ample potential for very strong/severe Thunderstorms, but where they'll be and when they'll come is not easily determined. There's simply too much uncertainty to say X city will get Y at around Z o'clock. What we do know is that the atmosphere is explosive and there's a lift mechanism gliding across a large area, and with southern extend the impacts become less certain.
 
I believe Alabama's threat for severe storms is now developing way up in Missouri. Lots of instability ahead of them.
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Bama Ravens said:
HRRR is weird in that it has multiple masses of convection, but no really wide MCS. If you take the HRRR at face value, much if north-central AL end up in a gap (not saying it’ll pan out exactly like that).
Click to expand...
Indeed, seeing a lot of scattered convection, not really much in the way of bowing structures, "derecho" or otherwise larger-scale convection being depicted in the most recent model guidance. That said, things are just getting started. Many model runs the past couple days didn't have much of anything until closer to 01-04Z so we may have hours before larger upscale growth occurs.
Of course, the models don't mean much right now. Time to do mesoanalysis and wait and see where convection lines up.
 
You’ll get burned more than you’d like using the HRRR before anything is initialized. It was horrid on the 6/28 derecho and was part of the reason why it “snuck up” on us.
 
CAPE values are insane in NW Alabama this afternoon (Friday 7/20). Hovering in the 6000 range. Yes, it's July, but that's some extreme atmospheric food waiting to feed potential convection later tonight.
 
My predicament is that I live about 15 miles north of Birmingham, but I am sitting on the Alabama Gulf Coast until tomorrow, so I won’t be home for this. Luckily there aren’t any trees around my house, and falling trees is usually how homes get damaged in events like this.
 
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