- Messages
- 1,411
- Location
- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
significant risk there
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Here is the actual watch for Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama.
Will probably hinge on how this S MS stuff develops as it propagates into AL, but would defer any more detailed answers to the experts.
- Messages
- 1,411
- Location
- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I think the key ingredient they are watching for is the low level jet and backing of winds, if that trends higher than expected, they will prob pull the trigger, assuming everything else goes as expected
Austin Dawg
Member
- Messages
- 1,013
- Location
- Leander, Texas
I'm watching and waiting to see how the area in North Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee start to form up, whether they are discrete or linear. Central Alabama south Mississippi, and Alabama look like they're going to be interesting if the conditions are right.
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
Not looking too bad NOW, but that can change very quickly in a matter of hours. If NFO (BMX) is not even sure of how things are going to go, then we definitely wan to be either. Don’t let your guard down and stay safe!!!!
Timhsv
Member
NorthGaWeather
Member
- Messages
- 627
- Location
- Canton, GA
BMX has been conducting them every 6 hours. I believe I read where PERiLS is also releasing balloons across the western part of Alabama today.
If you don't know what PERiLS is here is their website.
PERiLS: Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms
PERiLS, one of the largest severe storm field campaigns ever, will use a sweeping array of instruments in the southeast US in 2022–23, in an effort to better understand how tornadoes form in squall lines.
www.nssl.noaa.gov
NorthGaWeather
Member
- Messages
- 627
- Location
- Canton, GA
xJownage
Member
- Messages
- 570
- Location
- Jacksonville, Florida
It looks like storms are having trouble actually following RM right now. They all look like left movers and are failing to root. This is probably due to the garbage SR inflow available to left-moving storms right now.
Jpgood97
Member
Cell headed to Enterprise, MS and eventually Meridian may be the one to watch. Weak couplet starting to show
What a detailed update! Sometimes I wish we could clone the folks at BMX and place them at FFC.
Justin Hindman
Member
Coming into merdian and staying put. Things should crank around 2-3 pm
xJownage
Member
- Messages
- 570
- Location
- Jacksonville, Florida
Wow. How often do you see dixie have good thermals but the low level winds are meh?
LLJ could still kick this up in a hurry, and I'd imagine northern MS up into TN is much more robust kinematically.
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,853
- Location
- Madison, WI
Most interesting storm right now is of course in a location where it would be best observed by KNQA, which is down. Hook still visible south of Holly Springs on Memphis TDWR.
OHWX97
Member
- Messages
- 1,254
- Location
- Maineville, Ohio
At the moment, I'm most impressed with the cell just east of Parkers Crossroads, TN.
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,853
- Location
- Madison, WI
Good call, I wasn't looking for stuff to be getting going that far northeast yet.
- Messages
- 6,440
- Location
- Birmingham
In the late spring and summer lol. It's almost a reverse setup than our typical winter ones lol
Wow. How often do you see dixie have good thermals but the low level winds are meh?
LLJ could still kick this up in a hurry, and I'd imagine northern MS up into TN is much more robust kinematically.