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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

xJownage

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semi-discretes are breaking out on the cold front. still a lot to happen for the northern target...southern target looks like a mess with inability to get discrete RMs.
 

KevinH

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That’s written like they were trying to teach me about forecasting while explaining their current forecast. If any of the lurkers here are weather curios or want get started getting into the details more like I am they really should give this a read.
BMX really is top notch. They are also very responsive on Twitter (unless they are in the middle of an event).
 

JayF

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Mesoscale discussion For Iowa, Northern Illinois, and Southern Michigan.


mcd0161.gif
 

KevinH

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Watch those couplets trying to form around the Taylorsville/Mt Olive/Collins (NW of Hattiesburg) and Tylertown in extreme south C MS. Expect a TOR
 

JayF

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I have received questions on how to insert images via upload or by using a link to insert the image without taking up the entire page. I created a video to help everyone see and understand how to do it.

 

barcncpt44

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James Spann is doing his live weather videos and he's saying the ridge might be putting a lid on severe weather development looking at the thunderstorms developing now.. Though it could change.
 

KevinH

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I don't know how they do it, because i see the hundreds of weenies who spam tag them with radar images during events...as if BMX isn't monitoring radar or something.
They do it because they get a lot of “practice” that they dont have a choice in LOL…. IMO, FCC does not get to track/forecast/warn the same kind of weather as often as BMX does. AL is directly to the north of the GOF and has direct access to warm air. GA has FL to the south which can kind of “block” that surge of moisture AL can get so easily. GA is also further east so the ingredients have to come together differently (for lack of a better word) than they do in AL. The only exception might be NW GA (like Rome/Ringold, and may Newnan). Those are the only 2 EF4s GA has had that I know of.

That is not to say AL outbreaks are IMPOSSIBLE for GA, just seems to be less likely here… FOR NOW.
 
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