Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[Lake Martin EF4]

Megathread for the entire Mid-Late Feb period as this appears to be an extremely active period. Will we see 2023's first EF4+ from this? Who knows!

 

[KevinH]

Your led time for starting new threads is getting longer and longer lol

Not saying you are wrong, but am very curious as to what you have been seeing that caused you to pull this trigger?

This is the first I have seen this period mentioned so Im really curious!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Your led time for starting new threads is getting longer and longer lol

Not saying you are wrong, but am very curious as to what you have been seeing that caused you to pull this trigger?

This is the first I have seen this period mentioned so Im really curious!

It's not just what he's seeing it's consensus from your big 2 model ensembles on deep trough digging. That's a clear cut sign for severe weather in the southeast not to mention the strong bowling balls on the diagnostic runs of the GFS and euro.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The GFS at the day 7-8 timeframe has a sub 990mb surface low with a very deep 500mb low nosed at the deep south going negative tilt is a recipe for disaster along with projected difluent flow aloft. Talk about elongated homographs and potential PDS tornado soundings if the mositure picks up.

One thing I've kidnve learned is using theta e. Maybe its my imagination but I feel like it picks up on potential instability that the model isn't picking up on yet. The event tomorrow is. Key example theta e was high but forecast instability was low until we are about a day out and it finally recognizes "hey the atmosphere is pretty unstable". That's one tool I'll be looking at to see potential instability for the future event.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Impressive

 

[KevinH]

Impressive

Uhm… I don’t like the PLACEMENT of what I am seeing here.

 

[JPWX]

By reading this morning's SPC Day 4-8 Outlook, sounds like we could get a 15% area for next week by tomorrow if trends continue

 

[CheeselandSkies]

What's interesting about the 12Z GFS run is that as depicted there, unlike most of the recent ones, this isn't a "one and done" trough that pushes off the east coast with the accompanying cold front wiping the moisture out of the Gulf for a while. This one sits in place for a few days, with multiple shortwaves/surface systems rotating through with the potential for a multi-day threat over the same areas.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

What's interesting about the 12Z GFS run is that as depicted there, unlike most of the recent ones, this isn't a "one and done" trough that pushes off the east coast with the accompanying cold front wiping the moisture out of the Gulf for a while. This one sits in place for a few days, with multiple shortwaves/surface systems rotating through with the potential for a multi-day threat over the same areas.

Sounds like the Oklahoma 2013 multi day tornado event

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That system right after the one on the 14th has no issue with mositure. The parameters are pretty high for a long range lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good gosh!!! Look at this hodograph I'n Alabama before the shortwave gets here.

 

[andyhb]

I see a lot of wishcasting here for a pattern where the first trough looks too far south to amount to a larger threat and the second one suffers from moisture issues due to the first pushing a front through the Gulf.

Also, who cares about the wind profile when there's literally no destabilization?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I see a lot of wishcasting here for a pattern where the first trough looks too far south to amount to a larger threat and the second one suffers from moisture issues due to the first pushing a front through the Gulf.

Also, who cares about the wind profile when there's literally no destabilization?

It's weather talk lol. Weather is fun,

The sounding is where the destabilizing would be if or when it does occur anyways it's a look at the hodograph that's incredible

 

[KevinH]

I see a lot of wishcasting here for a pattern where the first trough looks too far south to amount to a larger threat and the second one suffers from moisture issues due to the first pushing a front through the Gulf.

Also, who cares about the wind profile when there's literally no destabilization?

I am going to remember this comment next week lol

Let’s see how this looks on D2/3

 

[andyhb]

I am going to remember this comment next week lol

Let’s see how this looks on D2/3

That's kind of irrelevant when we're talking about a D9-10 forecast.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's kind of irrelevant when we're talking about a D9-10 forecast.

I think he is talking about the day 7-8 forecast; ensembles do support multiple troughs coming through with the possiblity of accompanying severe threats. (D9-10) is still in voodoo land but if both major ensembles support it it'd be wise to look at the possibility. especially of what the deterministic models hint at. so it's highly possible somewhere in the south a decent severe threat may materialize, especially if the 1st system doesn't sweep stable air far out into the gulf.

It's all fun to a lot of us here, not sure why people get upset over talking about the weather or I guess what could be perceived or considered wish casting, I don't think any of us are more than amateurs; nothing is official forecasts just mere talk and thinking and jibbing. it makes me giddy inside to see all the little details and stuff with weather . which I can see Kevin enjoys the weather too. Weather is one of the few things that adults can relatively geek out on and somewhat be semi acceptable haha.

 

[KevinH]

That's kind of irrelevant when we're talking about a D9-10 forecast.

All I am saying is that things can change between now and then because nothing is ever 100% with the weather unless and until it actually happens. Even with models agreeing this far out (which is definitely notable) Especially in Dixie.

I have said it before and I will say it again: Dixie does what it wants, when it wants.

Now if the models keep saying this run after run, day after day, then I would start to say oh crap.

 

[KevinH]

I think he is talking about the day 7-8 forecast; ensembles do support multiple troughs coming through with the possiblity of accompanying severe threats. (D9-10) is still in voodoo land but if both major ensembles support it it'd be wise to look at the possibility. especially of what the deterministic models hint at. so it's highly possible somewhere in the south a decent severe threat may materialize, especially if the 1st system doesn't sweep stable air far out into the gulf.

It's all fun to a lot of us here, not sure why people get upset over talking about the weather or I guess what could be perceived or considered wish casting, I don't think any of us are more than amateurs; nothing is official forecasts just mere talk and thinking and jibbing. it makes me giddy inside to see all the little details and stuff with weather . which I can see Kevin enjoys the weather too. Weather is one of the few things that adults can relatively geek out on and somewhat be semi acceptable haha.

So far the last few events have been pretty west of me (LA/MS). For NOW, with THIS potential event, things look like they could strike closer to home (AL/GA), so this REALLY has my attention.


We have seen models go back and forth numerous times. I am looking for more consistency in the models over the next few days, time before it gets my “concern” ha!

As always, it will be interesting to see if the models verify OR if Dixie Alley gives says “just kidding” and gives us the middle finger (again) lol

 

[JBishopwx]

Just to make this more interesting, Jackson gets their radar upgrade next week.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just to make this more interesting, Jackson gets their radar upgrade next week.

Let's just predict severe weather threats based off when radar stations have maintenance, that's been the most realiable this year it seems lol