Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[JBishopwx]

Let's just predict severe weather threats based off when radar stations have maintenance, that's been the most realiable this year it seems lol

Columbus will be down once Jackson is done.

 

[warneagle]

At least it's not KJGX for once. My hometown radar can be pretty embarrassing sometimes.

 

[Timhsv]

Just to make this more interesting, Jackson gets their radar upgrade next week.

For the time period coming up and the projected pattern, bad timing IMHO

 

[Austin Dawg]

KGRK Ft. Hood, TX sez hold my beer. I swear it spends more time down as a total over the past few years than up running.

 

[keithGA]

Good gosh!!! Look at this hodograph I'n Alabama before the shortwave gets here. View attachment 17618

Jesus Christ!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Jesus Christ!

Not much instability is currently ahead of the shortwave. But looking at theta-e values adequate to moderate moisture looks available

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS, EURO, and GEM operational runs continue to advertise a severe risk next Thursday. The warm sector is characterized by large CAPE mostly along and south of the I-20 corridor.

 

[JPWX]

The CFSv2 Supercell Composite Parameter for Week 2 and 3. February 16th through March 1st.
View attachment 17663View attachment 17664

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The CFSv2 Supercell Composite Parameter for Week 2 and 3. February 16th through March 1st.
View attachment 17663View attachment 17664

Second low has good moisture return, curious to how detached or far away the low will be compared to the warm sector. Last time I checked on GFS it had it near the great lakes I think.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Second low has good moisture return, curious to how detached or far away the low will be compared to the warm sector. Last time I checked on GFS it had it near the great lakes I think.

But the euros solution is a red flag with mositure present. And a broad based 500mb which will help in westerly flow.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

WOAH! Nam has big snow for Georgia Saturday night in Sunday morning. @KevinH

 

[Clancy]

WOAH! Nam has big snow for Georgia Saturday night in Sunday morning. @KevinH

FFC is keeping an eye on it. Low confidence, high uncertainty and with Georgian luck the far northern mountains will get accumulation and the Atlanta metro south will get laughed at by mother nature herself.

So by Sunday morning, we`ll have colder air pushing in behind the
front, but moist flow overriding the area. An upper-level low
pressure system pushing into the forecast area, causing thicknesses
to drop under 540 dam. Between the two systems, heavy saturation
through the vertical column, promoting steady precip across the area
with lifting through the dendritic growth zone as surface temps cool
to the mid- to upper- 30s by Saturday night through Sunday.
Additionally, easterly flow north of the surface flow may promote
upslope flow with a minor CAD wedge forming in the southeastern
Appalachians. The result, will likely be a borderline wintry
weather event, primarily across north Georgia, with the primary
ptype being melting snow across at least a portion of the region.
The tricky part will be where, how long, and how much? No big deal.

As of now, the best confidence we have for any snow accumulations is
across far north Georgia, primarily in the N GA Mnts with minor
accumulation values. Elsewhere, models are signaling wintry precip
for scattered locations which will be heavily dependent on the
location of the upper-level low pressure system, but since it will
be cut off from the primary flow pattern, its location is much
harder to predict. Additionally, any snow that falls will likely be
falling into temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, which means it
will likely be melting as it comes down as it acts to cool
temperatures as it does so. This makes the accumulation question
difficult because there will likely be a significant difference
between how much snow could fall versus how much snow will
accumulate, a question some models can predict but can be difficult
to interpret. Additionally, temperatures will likely drop the more
heavier snow falls (and melts) so at some point we could see melting
snow starts to accumulate but at what time that could happen is
unclear. All in all, there remains way too many questions for a
decisive forecast, so for now we`re calling for periods of a
rain/snow mix through a good portion of North Georgia Saturday night
through Sunday morning, with only light accumulations forecast for
far north Georgia. Time will tell as these processes come to
consensus over the next 24-48 hours on how the system will evolve.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

We have a winter weather thread here https://talkweather.com/threads/winter-weather-2022-2023.2041/.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

FFC is keeping an eye on it. Low confidence, high uncertainty and with Georgian luck the far northern mountains will get accumulation and the Atlanta metro south will get laughed at by mother nature herself.

Hey it'd be a awesome way to end winter a nice snow, hopefully just maybe central Alabama can sneak a little snow. I hope y'all get some short lived snow. Low impact high fun haha

 

[UncleJuJu98]

We have a winter weather thread here https://talkweather.com/threads/winter-weather-2022-2023.2041/.

I'll put the rest of my posts there lol

 

[Weatherphreak]

Brad Travis starting to beat the drum for next Thursday/Friday 16th/17th storm.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EURO was nasty. Looks worst than the GFS. All the models still agree there will be a severe risk (possibly significant) Day 8.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The EURO was nasty. Looks worst than the GFS. All the models still agree there will be a severe risk (possibly significant) Day 8.

Yeah the euros is pretty significant, a decent moisture pool and superb shear

 

[UK_EF4]

Some concerning model output now...

Here is a GEM sounding as well:

Now into the range it becomes a bit more worrying. I will be interested to see what the 12z Euro does.

 

[Timhsv]

At this range and with these projections already...Big event possible. Still early as we all know thou.