Winter Weather 2022-2023

[Taylor Campbell]

A thread to discuss winter weather for the 2022-2023 season.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow, check out this meso discussion for a snow threat. That sounds amazing to experience.

Mesoscale Discussion 1956 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2022 Areas affected...portions of extreme western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 180057Z - 180700Z SUMMARY...2+ inch snowfall rates are expected to accompany a primary snowband near or just south of the Buffalo, NY area this evening into early tomorrow morning. Reduced visibility and crippling travel conditions are possible through the night. DISCUSSION...A mid-level impulse embedded within the broader cyclonic upper flow is traversing the Lower MI peninsula and is approaching Lakes Erie/Ontario and far western NY, with broader deep-layer ascent gradually increasing over the Upper Hudson Valley. The approach of this impulse is causing surface-700 mb winds to veer more southwesterly, paralleling the long axis of Lake Erie. As such, a primary snowband (also paralleling Lake Erie) is beginning to mature and align in a manner that is favorable for a long-duration heavy lake-effect snow event for or immediately south of the Buffalo, NY area. Mesoanalysis trends also show surface-700 mb cold-air advection over Lake Erie, with the -12C to -17C dendritic growth zone deepening and saturating. The cold-air advection atop a warmer water surface is also contributing to 7.5 C/km low-level lapse rates near the Lake Erie shoreline (per the 00Z BUF observed sounding), which may possibly steepen further to near 8.5 C/km tonight, increasing SBCAPE over water to near 250 J/kg. The increase in CAPE and deepening/saturating of the dendritic growth zone may support convective snow development within the primary snow band, with 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates and near-zero visibility possible. The heaviest snowfall is most likely after 03Z and may continuing to 12Z Friday morning (based on the latest runs of the HRRR and the 12Z HREF ensemble consensus). Should a prolonged period of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates occur, potentially crippling travel conditions may develop. ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2022

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[JBishopwx]

Some lightning with the lake effect snow around Buffalo.

 

[JPWX]

Latest 48 hour snowfall reports. Blasdell in the lead with 48 inches.

 

[WesL]

While we aren't as "lucky" as Buffalo, we did wake up to a nice half-inch of snow this morning in NW Arkansas. That is our third snow event in a week. Starting to think this winter is going to be interesting.

 

[JPWX]

54 inches now just south of Orchard Park, NY.

 

[JPWX]

Snow totals since 2pm today. 66 inches in Orchard Park

 

[JPWX]

Orchard Park, NY averages 114.4 inches of snow per year. They have surpassed the average snow for November (10.7), December (30.7), January (32.3), February (19.6), and March (16.1). WILD!

 

[akt1985]

No wonder the Bills game was moved to Detroit for this Sunday.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Orchard Park, NY averages 114.4 inches of snow per year. They have surpassed the average snow for November (10.7), December (30.7), January (32.3), February (19.6), and March (16.1). WILD!

They are still getting snow and will all through the night into tomorrow morning. This is an incredible snow event!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hoping for a winter surprise in central Alabama seems unlikely but maybe temps will be a tad lower. Georgia may get a decent snow

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Newest nam run snow in Alabama now

 

[UncleJuJu98]

My eyes are glued. I'll take. A couple inches pleaseeeeeee!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I may make a thread later tonight if short range models congeal on this.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Went ahead and made it, why not now lol.

Thread 'Winter weather threat February 11-13th' https://talkweather.com/threads/winter-weather-threat-february-11-13th.2082/

 

[bjdeming]

Meanwhile, in Oregon, as this week's storm for much of the country shapes up (at least the northern part--hope Dixie gets *a little*), they've got the Coast Range here down for up to 13" and the High Cascades, 3 feet!

Compared to what California and the Northeast have suffered this winter, not much, but it's a lot more than I have seen since coming out here in 2014.

We're at 44.5 degrees north but it's greener in the valley during winter than Alabama is (sure do miss those lingering spring and fall non-severe days).

People do mow the lawn here in January.

I looked it up once; apparently no one knows why the Willamette Valley is so warm in winter.

Anyway, Corvallis is right on the inland edge of the Coast Range and just under 250' asl. Barring any microclimate setups, we shouldn't get more than a couple of inches. But this does not bode well for parts of the US east of us.

 

[Clancy]

Not the snow map we need, but the one we deserve.

 

[TH2002]

At about 2,800 feet in elevation, my town periodically sees flurries in the winter and a larger storm perhaps every few years or so, but the wording in this video borderline scares me. 'Historic' and 'borderline astronomical' just screams 'Have fun commuting to work for the remainder of the week as not one, but THREE separate winter storm systems impact SoCal'...