Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[Taylor Campbell]

Yeah, wow at that deep and thick CAPE profile all the way to the 200mb level. Also great deep layer shear overspreading this expansive warm sector. GFS, CMC, and EURO supporting it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, wow at that deep and thick CAPE profile all the way to the 200mb level. Also great deep layer shear overspreading this expansive warm sector. GFS, CMC, and EURO supporting it.

It's got the cape of a early /mid spring event almost

 

[andyhb]

Well, the 12z Euro decided to go full send essentially. That is the type of setup that can yield a large event in the SE.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC hinting at the potential, but refraining from specifics at this range (and rightly so).

...Days 7/8 Wednesday/Thursday...
Early indications are that severe-weather potential may increase
with the approach of a secondary upper-level trough, potentially
including parts of the ArkLaTex, Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Mid-South. However, considerable uncertainty exists with the
magnitude/primary regional locations of this currently speculative
severe potential.

..Guyer.. 02/09/2023

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GEM and ICON models are more similar to the EURO than the GFS. Guidance now suggest that Wednesday could be the start of things.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

big moisture pool. And that's just globals lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like this could have a large threat area like the Easter 2020 event a wide but not tall risk area lol *(actually it's not that one, this is the event in the picture below I was referencing)*. Not saying it'll be as significant.

Large broad based trough

 

[Equus]

I have to drive to Texas next Wednesday, seems about the right timing to make that difficult

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oh wow! Tyler at the Montgomery weather station already putting a first alert on this event! Is it actually that favorable for a first alert at 7-8 days out??

 

[Fred Gossage]

I'll be around tonight to diagnose and post what I see. The fact that I've been quiet for as long as I have here lately but I'm suddenly not quiet now, that alone, should get your immediate attention if you're one of my long-time followers around here...

 

[warneagle]

Oh snap, we've crossed the Fred Event Horizon.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I

Oh snap, we've crossed the Fred Event Horizon.

I guess Tyler sebree wasnt crapping around on a serious severe weather chance next week

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Very large broad based trough will support westerly across much of the deep south with this look. A sub 1000mb low as well in good position around Missouri/ Memphis area. With a lot of moisture :|

 

[MichelleH]

I'll be around tonight to diagnose and post what I see. The fact that I've been quiet for as long as I have here lately but I'm suddenly not quiet now, that alone, should get your immediate attention if you're one of my long-time followers around here...

Uh-oh.

 

[Timhsv]

Well, the 12z Euro decided to go full send essentially. That is the type of setup that can yield a large event in the SE.

Man, Look at the incoming jet streak.

 

[Matt Grantham]

Buckle up over the next few weeks.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Buckle up over the next few weeks.

System end next week has potential be high ceiling … plenty time watch

 

[UncleJuJu98]

@Matt Grantham @Fred Gossage

What makes this a higher risk threat? Don't recall any meteorologists popping in on the January long track tornado event, does this one have the same potential or ceiling as that?

I think the forum as a whole would love a simple writeup on some details!

-everybody lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

@Matt Grantham @Fred Gossage

What makes this a higher risk threat? Don't recall any meteorologists popping in on the January long track tornado event, does this one have the same potential or ceiling as that?

I think the forum as a whole would love a simple writeup on some details!

-everybody lol

@Matt Grantham @Fred Gossage

What makes this a higher risk threat? Don't recall any meteorologists popping in on the January long track tornado event, does this one have the same potential or ceiling as that?

I think the forum as a whole would love a simple writeup on some details!

-everybody lol

For one. We looking at a much better deeper moisture return , large healthy warm sector looks be modeled as now and wouldn’t be out question see few points getting Hugh as upper 60s part Dixie with mid 60s far north as southern Illinois … but to early go deep detail

 

[KevinH]

I'll be around tonight to diagnose and post what I see. The fact that I've been quiet for as long as I have here lately but I'm suddenly not quiet now, that alone, should get your immediate attention if you're one of my long-time followers around here...

That part.