Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[TornadoFan]

Seems to be linear for the moment.

 

[Argus]

At least it won't be hitting at 7:30 AM tomorrow here, or will it?

 

[Richardjacks]

Hrrr seems to be trending higher hel values over Alabama

 

[Richardjacks]

But also showing more junk convection in the same area

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Former Member 1430]

How do things look further north into TN in your opinion?

Hrrr seems to be trending higher hel values over Alabama

 

[GTWXAlum]

Sun is trying hard to come out in Nashville

Junk convection is well north of the city

 

[The Nino]

HRRR looking real junky for northern AL

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Surprised there's no warning with the Brookhaven cell

 

[Clancy]

New graphicast from BMX.

 

[Richardjacks]

Ctg lightning along al miss state line this soon is a bit surprising

 

[Justin Hindman]

Watching the storm near SoSo

 

[OHWX97]

MCD out for the cells over southern MS.

Mesoscale Discussion 0164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...southern Mississippi into west-central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...

Valid 161737Z - 161900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to organize with tornado potential
gradually increasing through the early afternoon. A corridor of
higher tornado potential may evolve from southeastern MS into
west-central AL later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, radar imagery has shown
gradual organization of a few supercells over portions of southern
MS. Surface obs and PERILS experimental soundings have shown steady
airmass modification and boundary-layer destabilization from
southerly low-level advection and cloud breaks within the overlying
stratus deck. As temperatures warm into the mid 70s F, increasing
theta-E will likely allow for continued intensification of ongoing
storms and the development of additional convection in the vicinity.
Area VADs show robust low-level shear profiles that have improved
over time, with 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, supportive of low-level
mesocyclones. As supercells mature, the tornado threat should
gradually increase through the early afternoon over southern MS. A
corridor of enhanced tornado potential may evolve into portions of
west-central AL later this afternoon as the current supercells shift
eastward.

While timing of any downstream watches remains a bit uncertain owing
to recent convective imitation near the AL/MS border, a few hours
will likely be needed for updrafts to organize to pose a substantial
tornado threat. HRRR trends suggest the supercells moving out of
southern MS remain the primary threat in the coming hours. However,
convective trends will be monitored for any intensification or new
convective development farther east into AL.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/16/2023

 

[brianc33710]

Its sunny here in Hoover and feels warm & muggy outside. I love the warm humid weather but know its not good in February.

 

[Clancy]

BMX comment on that MCD. Tornado Watch may be forthcoming.

 

[The Nino]

has there been any real time soundings put out by any national weather service stations?

 

[JBishopwx]

New watch upcoming for North Alabama/Mississippi also.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[JayF]

The NWS Office in Huntsville has issued a Tornado Watch for Madison County in effect until 7p.

 

[brianc33710]

Any chance part of the Enhanced area upgrades to Moderate?