Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

Do you think we might have to much of a strong capping inversion for anything to really get going? The RAP I use to get a general idea on parameters without mesoscale interaction, probably have enough lift to break through imo. @Richardjacks
 
Seems like a boudnary / confluence or something trains over the i59 corridor. May lead to erosion of the capping inversion sooner for that area. Screenshot_2023-02-15-18-19-28-58_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
TH2002 said:
The Southaven-Memphis EF2 during the Super Tuesday outbreak.
Click to expand...

Lake Martin EF4 said:
EF2 on February 5, 2008. Narrowly missed us. Killed 3 people at a warehouse and then severely damaged a mall.
Click to expand...

I was living east of Memphis when that happened. Fortunately we were well away from the actual path of the tornado. It was a wild day regardless.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
The "crumbs" comment was not directed at the PNG. I'd rather not get a midnight TOR-E on a school night.
Click to expand...
I'm an idiot... my bad.

Off hand I'm not sure what kind of parameters the 2008 tornado formed in, but it's looking increasingly like the Memphis metro could be in the bullseye of a high shear, low CAPE threat tonight (50-60 knts of shear and 300+ m2s2 spell bad news) if a storm can manage to root itself in the boundary layer. Definitely a perfect night to keep the weather radio close by...
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Seems like a boudnary / confluence or something trains over the i59 corridor. May lead to erosion of the capping inversion sooner for that area. View attachment 17871
Click to expand...
that's what is going to likely determine how the day goes..for Alabama.....that could be above the cap, but could also increase backing...a troublesome look if the cap breaks in time
 
Last edited:
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed how the short term model guidance particularly the HRRR appears to be lacking on the current activity south/west of Columbus, MS.

21z HRRR modeled vs. actual
 

Attachments

  • hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_1.png
    hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_1.png
    140 KB · Views: 0
  • mrms-alms-refc-6508000.png
    mrms-alms-refc-6508000.png
    151.9 KB · Views: 0
JPWX said:
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed how the short term model guidance particularly the HRRR appears to be lacking on the current activity south/west of Columbus, MS.

21z HRRR modeled vs. actual
Click to expand...
Seems like a overdone capping inversion by models. May mean a little further south initiation of some severe storms.
 
TH2002 said:
I'm an idiot... my bad.

Off hand I'm not sure what kind of parameters the 2008 tornado formed in, but it's looking increasingly like the Memphis metro could be in the bullseye of a high shear, low CAPE threat tonight (50-60 knts of shear and 300+ m2s2 spell bad news) if a storm can manage to root itself in the boundary layer. Definitely a perfect night to keep the weather radio close by...
Click to expand...
Cape in most west Tennessee pushing 1500
 
Richardjacks said:
that's what is going to likely determine how the day goes..for Alabama.....that could be above the cap, but could also increase backing...a troublesome look if the cap breaks in time
Click to expand...
Just noticed; was checking the simulated satellite imagery some of the semi decaying storms over Tennessee push out a outflow boundary or something. and kindve merges along the confluence band. Probably have a extreme amount localized shear along the i59 corridor area.

That north Alabama central Alabama just has way too many boundary interactions, lift mechanisms to make me not believe that we won't have storms fire along it around noon to 3 o'clock.

A lot of our major tornadoes in central Alabama have come along some of these boundaries April 27ths Tuscaloosa tornado fore sure just off the top of my head.

Another little thing a minor kink in the contours. I've heard trey indicate those may be enough to help give the tipping point of initiation. Right along the central Alabama state line. Maybe a very subtle shortwave?Screenshot_2023-02-15-19-11-07-71_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
Last edited:
UncleJuJu98 said:
Seems like a overdone capping inversion by models. May mean a little further south initiation of some severe storms.
Click to expand...

Actually, looks like the capping is still holding out as those cells that crossed the LA/MS border earlier near Centreville/Woodville have yet to take off...in fact they look quite a bit weaker than about 45 minutes ago.

It's still early in the event though, and there have been signals that the most robust activity won't get going until later in the night.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top