Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[Tennie]

Actually, looks like the capping is still holding out as those cells that crossed the LA/MS border earlier near Centreville/Woodville have yet to take off...in fact they look quite a bit weaker than about 45 minutes ago.

It's still early in the event though, and there have been signals that the most robust activity won't get going until later in the night.

Personally, I have no real intention to track overnight storms on nights before workdays (I prefer to stay on a relatively healthy sleep schedule, thank you very much!), so I'll probably call it a night regardless and check back here tomorrow morning.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Actually, looks like the capping is still holding out as those cells that crossed the LA/MS border earlier near Centreville/Woodville have yet to take off...in fact they look quite a bit weaker than about 45 minutes ago.

It's still early in the event though, and there have been signals that the most robust activity won't get going until later in the night.

Good point, I wonder why there's more showers/storms then. More forcing than modeled maybe?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Personally, I have no real intention to track overnight storms on nights before workdays (I prefer to stay on a relatively healthy sleep schedule, thank you very much!), so I'll probably call it a night regardless and check back here tomorrow morning.

Depending on where in TN you are, you will probably want to have a weather radio ready to go at your bedside tonight...although if you're on this forum, you probably don't need to be told that.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Actually, looks like the capping is still holding out as those cells that crossed the LA/MS border earlier near Centreville/Woodville have yet to take off...in fact they look quite a bit weaker than about 45 minutes ago.

It's still early in the event though, and there have been signals that the most robust activity won't get going until later in the night.

Not sure that’s good think or bad thing be honest … good thing currently . But could get ugly quick later if or. When cap erides

 

[OHWX97]

Gotta watch that cell between Wynnewood and Davis, OK.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

0Z HRRR seems to show storms in the Mid-South struggling most of the night...could be a situation where the forcing in the open warm sector is just TOO subtle to overcome the capping in sustained fashion. Main show might be in eastern MS/middle TN/AL tomorrow afternoon. That said, if I lived in tonight's 10 hatch I would still have a weather radio and/or a fully charged cell phone capable of receiving WEAs at my bedside.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Gotta watch that cell between Wynnewood and Davis, OK.

Yeah, sneaky little supercell just ahead of the main cluster there. I believe the thinking was that these storms would start out as elevated hailers, but could become more surface-based with a tornado threat over time.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Also seeing a lot of snowfall reports over western KS and the OK/TX panhandles on GR 3.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[warneagle]

0Z HRRR seems to show storms in the Mid-South struggling most of the night...could be a situation where the forcing in the open warm sector is just TOO subtle to overcome the capping in sustained fashion. Main show might be in eastern MS/middle TN/AL tomorrow afternoon. That said, if I lived in tonight's 10 hatch I would still have a weather radio and/or a fully charged cell phone capable of receiving WEAs at my bedside.

Yeah if we've learned anything about these nocturnal high shear/low CAPE events the last couple of years it's that it only takes one.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The hrrr is really off. Doesn't even have the little complex of storms on the Alabama Mississippi border

 

[JPWX]

The hrrr is really off. Doesn't even have the little complex of storms on the Alabama Mississippi border

That's what I was noticing earlier. Kinda worries me a little.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah if we've learned anything about these nocturnal high shear/low CAPE events the last couple of years it's that it only takes one.

I dunno if I'd call it a high shear/low CAPE setup, though. The CAPE is gonna be there...in the 1-2,000 j/kg range. For a February setup, that's pretty impressive. The issue is the very subtle forcing with the main surface front being still way back to the west over OK/TX, the cooler air aloft with the upper trough also hanging back to the west, with the main height falls and strongest flow associated with the exit region of the trough off to the north. This is due in part to the positively tilted nature of the trough. The ingredients are all there, they're just a little bit disjointed at the moment. They may overlap to result in a significant outcome, or they may not.

I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night (and watch Trey Greenwood's videos).

 

[Jetstream]

First tornado warning of the evening in Oklahoma

 

[Austin Dawg]

Is that not the warm front moving through Mississippi?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Leaving the overnight fun to y'all, stay safe. I gotta get some rest to be able to potentially chase tommorow. Start my work day early and get off early.

 

[TH2002]

First tornado warning of the evening in Oklahoma

Pretty impressive hook and couplet on it, could spell trouble for Ada.

 

[OHWX97]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Pretty impressive hook and couplet on it, could spell trouble for Ada.

Double twister

 

[JPWX]

Is that not the warm front moving through Mississippi?

It is