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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

UncleJuJu98 said:
Is a moderate update coming?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure. The SPC has seemed relatively conservative on this event so far, and usually they don't upgrade at the 01:00 UTC outlook. However this may be the exception considering the main event is likely 03-08z in MS, TN, AR etc. Also there have been cases of NWS offices having influence in an outlook, so given the NWS MEG's latest discussion that could be something interesting. Yet the SPC categorical risk doesn't hugely matter away from a public messaging standpoint, we know strong-intense tornadoes are possible tonight - though if I had to guess I would say 70% no and 30% yes for a moderate.
 
I know I've seen SPC issue MCD's for a categorical upgrade so maybe that's what they'll do if they think a Moderate Risk is needed.
 
Just peeking at the 21z hrrr the strom relative helicity is really high for central Alabama and north Alabama.. I got a bad gut feeling for Alabama tommorow. One thing that may help us out is convection initiating earlier in southeast missippi and possibly cutting off moisture some. But I don't think that'll happen at this point
 
Peak heating over central Alabama with widespread 350-450 3km helicity. 71 degree critical angle? Getting close to being pretty stream wise. Nice enlarged hodograph. That's impressive.

This current sounding is elevated. But a pretty good environment tommorow. Don't think it represent the EML to well either. 2023021521_RAP_023_33.45,-87.24_severe_ml.png
 
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