Is a moderate update coming?
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
To whoever is chasing tonight be safe. Don't get caught in a strong violent tornado by accident.
I'm not sure. The SPC has seemed relatively conservative on this event so far, and usually they don't upgrade at the 01:00 UTC outlook. However this may be the exception considering the main event is likely 03-08z in MS, TN, AR etc. Also there have been cases of NWS offices having influence in an outlook, so given the NWS MEG's latest discussion that could be something interesting. Yet the SPC categorical risk doesn't hugely matter away from a public messaging standpoint, we know strong-intense tornadoes are possible tonight - though if I had to guess I would say 70% no and 30% yes for a moderate.
Shelter list, take note if your in the paths of any storms today and tommorow.
Got robust development near Jackson 
cincywx
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- Thread starter
- #527
Lake Martin EF4
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Jan 12.
That Jackson storm has some healthy rotation, very good structure not sure if it's surface based but I would watch it. Broad but healthy.
TileDude
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tennessee storm chaser
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Yeah that could be the start. That storm rotated quickly also
JPWX
Member
I know I've seen SPC issue MCD's for a categorical upgrade so maybe that's what they'll do if they think a Moderate Risk is needed.
Outbreak wording sure warrants a upgrade, I'd be honestly surprised if SPC and the Memphis office didn't collaborate and go and do one.
Just peeking at the 21z hrrr the strom relative helicity is really high for central Alabama and north Alabama.. I got a bad gut feeling for Alabama tommorow. One thing that may help us out is convection initiating earlier in southeast missippi and possibly cutting off moisture some. But I don't think that'll happen at this point
Peak heating over central Alabama with widespread 350-450 3km helicity. 71 degree critical angle? Getting close to being pretty stream wise. Nice enlarged hodograph. That's impressive.
This current sounding is elevated. But a pretty good environment tommorow. Don't think it represent the EML to well either.
This current sounding is elevated. But a pretty good environment tommorow. Don't think it represent the EML to well either.
GTWXAlum
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Convection initiating in the west Mississippi radar hole
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For some reason I'm sensing a repeat of Southaven 2008 tonight...
Oops! We ran into some problems.
edit: gosh darnit
Oops! We ran into some problems.
edit: gosh darnit
warneagle
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Of course, where else would it be?
