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Lake Martin EF4
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Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwww crumbs.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
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Do you think we might have to much of a strong capping inversion for anything to really get going? The RAP I use to get a general idea on parameters without mesoscale interaction, probably have enough lift to break through imo. @Richardjacks
What's a Southaven 2008?
Memphis going live in 15 minutes
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TW is finicky when attaching PNG's for some reason. It seems to work fine with JPG's so I usually use those despite the slightly lower quality.
The Southaven-Memphis EF2 during the Super Tuesday outbreak.
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Lake Martin EF4
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EF2 on February 5, 2008. Narrowly missed us. Killed 3 people at a warehouse and then severely damaged a mall.
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Lake Martin EF4
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The "crumbs" comment was not directed at the PNG. I'd rather not get a midnight TOR-E on a school night.
Seems like a boudnary / confluence or something trains over the i59 corridor. May lead to erosion of the capping inversion sooner for that area. 
I was living east of Memphis when that happened. Fortunately we were well away from the actual path of the tornado. It was a wild day regardless.
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I'm an idiot... my bad.
Off hand I'm not sure what kind of parameters the 2008 tornado formed in, but it's looking increasingly like the Memphis metro could be in the bullseye of a high shear, low CAPE threat tonight (50-60 knts of shear and 300+ m2s2 spell bad news) if a storm can manage to root itself in the boundary layer. Definitely a perfect night to keep the weather radio close by...
that's what is going to likely determine how the day goes..for Alabama.....that could be above the cap, but could also increase backing...a troublesome look if the cap breaks in time
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JPWX
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Gen-Z Meterology
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Whole bunch of nothing. Just showed all the SPC models that we have already seen and went through what to have prepared/the difference between a watch and warning. No new update on anything.
Seems like a overdone capping inversion by models. May mean a little further south initiation of some severe storms.
tennessee storm chaser
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Cape in most west Tennessee pushing 1500
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Just curious - what site are you using to view the current parameters in place over that area? My body is still sore and mind still mush after having to deal with a bunch of 600-900 lb pallets by hand at work yesterday...
Just noticed; was checking the simulated satellite imagery some of the semi decaying storms over Tennessee push out a outflow boundary or something. and kindve merges along the confluence band. Probably have a extreme amount localized shear along the i59 corridor area.
That north Alabama central Alabama just has way too many boundary interactions, lift mechanisms to make me not believe that we won't have storms fire along it around noon to 3 o'clock.
A lot of our major tornadoes in central Alabama have come along some of these boundaries April 27ths Tuscaloosa tornado fore sure just off the top of my head.
Another little thing a minor kink in the contours. I've heard trey indicate those may be enough to help give the tipping point of initiation. Right along the central Alabama state line. Maybe a very subtle shortwave?
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tennessee storm chaser
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Short range I get off pivot
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Interesting, the GFS model is showing some CAPE breaking 1,000 J/kg in extreme SW TN (in other words, the Memphis metro) but everywhere else in west TN seems to be in the 600-800 range. Or maybe I'm looking at the wrong page?
CheeselandSkies
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Actually, looks like the capping is still holding out as those cells that crossed the LA/MS border earlier near Centreville/Woodville have yet to take off...in fact they look quite a bit weaker than about 45 minutes ago.
It's still early in the event though, and there have been signals that the most robust activity won't get going until later in the night.
