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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

JPWX

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So was going back through my GoPro 11 footage and stumbled upon this. I accidentally caught the Smithville tornado. Me and my dad were out storm chasing with the idea of catching lightning. Got more than I bargained for. Wanna know something crazy about the tornado today? I dreamed about 10 years ago of a tornado occurring in that particular field. No joke.
 

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At this point I am still skeptical that a MDT Risk will verify tornado-wise, much less “4/27 lite.” I think there will be an isolated supercell that produces an intense tornado or two, but multiple long-lived, intense tornado families seem rather unlikely at this time. The major threat appears to be localised and based on the mesoscale rather than synoptic scale. The aerial coverage of discrete activity also looks to be rather limited. People should definitely be prepared, but I still think that this event will not reach its “ceiling,” especially compared to projections* that were issued several days ago.

*Modelled, not SPC
*Knock on wood* Ahem... *awaits apologies*

Still, I’m glad that this busted...
 

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JBishopwx

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*Knock on wood* Ahem... *awaits apologies*

Still, I’m glad that this busted...
Yeah... 25 homes destroyed and 5+ with major damage. Tell those people it was a bust...
 

ColdFront

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I’m really interested in what Trey Greenwood puts out to really explain what some of the limiting factors of today were. His videos are excellent.

Also, long time lurker (found the site during the Easter 2020 outbreak), but decided to finally make an account, so hello everyone!
 

JayF

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Yeah... 25 homes were destroyed and 5+ with major damage. Tell those people it was a bust...

We can sympathize with those who have lost their homes or if anyone was killed or injured because of these storms. For them, this was not a busted forecast, and we can all agree. However, as it pertains to the overall estimates that we could have had a much more strenuous showing of storms and much more widespread damage, that forecast was not realized. I think we are looking at the bigger picture, not one location. This setup had the opportunity to be much worse, and we can thank God that it wasn't and pray for those affected.
 

TH2002

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So was going back through my GoPro 11 footage and stumbled upon this. I accidentally caught the Smithville tornado. Me and my dad were out storm chasing with the idea of catching lightning. Got more than I bargained for.
Do you plan on releasing the footage if you haven't already? I'm kind of a nut for tornado footage so I had to ask lol
 
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We can sympathize with those who have lost their homes or if anyone was killed or injured because of these storms. For them, this was not a busted forecast, and we can all agree. However, as it pertains to the overall estimates that we could have had a much more strenuous showing of storms and much more widespread damage, that forecast was not realized. I think we are looking at the bigger picture, not one location. This setup had the opportunity to be much worse, and we can thank God that it wasn't and pray for those affected.
@JayF Exactly. I was only reiterating the bolded. My point is that this event fell short of modelling and initial forecasts, fortunately.

But any loss of life and/or damage is unfortunate.
 

KevinH

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We can sympathize with those who have lost their homes or if anyone was killed or injured because of these storms. For them, this was not a busted forecast, and we can all agree. However, as it pertains to the overall estimates that we could have had a much more strenuous showing of storms and much more widespread damage, that forecast was not realized. I think we are looking at the bigger picture, not one location. This setup had the opportunity to be much worse, and we can thank God that it wasn't and pray for those affected.
Perfectly said.
 

ColdFront

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*Knock on wood* Ahem... *awaits apologies*

Still, I’m glad that this busted...
I mean, more likely than not, the person downplaying(or downcasting I don’t mean to say you were downplaying the event, you were not at all) the ceiling of an event is going to be right 8-9 times out of 10 just because, as we always see in weather, the perfect ingredients have to come together at the perfect time in the perfect place to hit its full potential.

Then factor in mesoscale factors the day of (things as small as sunlight angles) and you’ll be right most of the time.
 

JPWX

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Do you plan on releasing the footage if you haven't already? I'm kind of a nut for tornado footage so I had to ask lol
Well, I wasn't really aimed towards the tornado. I was aiming to get lightning shots so I had the GoPro facing north not west and there were a lot of trees/powerlines in the way. Like I said, I just happened to notice it when I was reviewing the video off to the side. I wouldn't have noticed it had not been for the tornado warning then debris signature showing up on radar. Honestly, it was a fast spin up.
 

Tennie

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I mean, more likely than not, the person downplaying(or downcasting I don’t mean to say you were downplaying the event, you were not at all) the ceiling of an event is going to be right 8-9 times out of 10 just because, as we always see in weather, the perfect ingredients have to come together at the perfect time in the perfect place to hit its full potential.

Then factor in mesoscale factors the day of (things as small as sunlight angles) and you’ll be right most of the time.

When it comes to the weather, there are so many moving parts and so many variables involved that even a relatively small change in a single factor can be the difference between a non-event and a historic event. There's a reason why a meteorologist (Edward Lorentz) was the one who first developed chaos theory, after all.
 

MattPetrulli

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Something of note to keep an eye on, UH tracks on HRRR haven't really been intense over the past several runs. Obviously UH tracks aren't the only thing that indicates tornado potential, but it's something to keep note of.
uh25_max.us_ov.png

ARW is a bit more intense however, but NSSL isn't much better than HRRR

uh25_max.us_ov.png


uh25_max.us_ov.png

A signal to keep note of through this event.
I have no scientific evidence to back this, however this event goes on the list of events with lesser intense UH tracks underperforming vs what was expected. A little footnote to add for future events that can lead to a little more credence of these products.
 

WesL

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I’m really interested in what Trey Greenwood puts out to really explain what some of the limiting factors of today were. His videos are excellent.

Also, long time lurker (found the site during the Easter 2020 outbreak), but decided to finally make an account, so hello everyone!
Glad you joined us! Love the name as well.
 
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