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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

Austin Dawg

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Well, I wasn't really aimed towards the tornado. I was aiming to get lightning shots so I had the GoPro facing north not west and there were a lot of trees/powerlines in the way. Like I said, I just happened to notice it when I was reviewing the video off to the side. I wouldn't have noticed it had not been for the tornado warning then debris signature showing up on radar. Honestly, it was a fast spin up.
When it comes to the weather, there are so many moving parts and so many variables involved that even a relatively small change in a single factor can be the difference between a non-event and a historic event. There's a reason why a meteorologist (Edward Lorentz) was the one who first developed chaos theory, after all.
I'm glad Smithville wasn't in the direct path and you (JPWX) and all the folks there are ok. My Mom lives there and so do many of my friends... so I especially pay attention to your posts. Yesterday I told everyone I know to be aware of the weather today because of what I read here, so thank you guys.

One of those friends sent me a picture, He lost his house in 2011. He said it was on the other side of the Tenn/Tom Waterway which borders the western edge of town.

smithville 2.JPG

Look like it's going to be a long and busy tornado season.
 

Telstar

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Perfectly said.
I come here to get information about any threats to my area from you knowledgeable people. The person that appears the most accurate (including Mr. Gossage), is Casurarina head. Unfortunately, his opinions are usually ridiculed, mocked and talked-down-to by others here. I wish those people would give him a chance without dismissing his ideas outright. It appears that this attitude is because he is an outsider to the good-old-boys group who all agree with each other. I hope I’m wrong because I like all of you.
 

UncleJuJu98

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I come here to get information about any threats to my area from you knowledgeable people. The person that appears the most accurate (including Mr. Gossage), is Casurarina head. Unfortunately, his opinions are usually ridiculed, mocked and talked-down-to by others here. I wish those people would give him a chance without dismissing his ideas outright. It appears that this attitude is because he is an outsider to the good-old-boys group who all agree with each other. I hope I’m wrong because I like all of you.
Good point, it's always good to have a differing opionon.

Moving forward I'll take the devil's advocate advice and throw it into my soup of ideas. And just ignore any altercation or rebuttal on my end. I can't speak for everybody else. But I do feel like a few of the people in here's quotes were taking out of context a bit , but that is all I'm going to say.
 

MidTNWx

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I come here to get information about any threats to my area from you knowledgeable people. The person that appears the most accurate (including Mr. Gossage), is Casurarina head. Unfortunately, his opinions are usually ridiculed, mocked and talked-down-to by others here. I wish those people would give him a chance without dismissing his ideas outright. It appears that this attitude is because he is an outsider to the good-old-boys group who all agree with each other. I hope I’m wrong because I like all of you.
Hey all, a long-time lurker here, finally speaking up to chime in on this. I do think that Casurarina is often right about the outcome of these events, however his comments tend to come off as arrogant IMO. Devils advocate is always a good thing, but he seems to be pushing a much larger-scale theory and brings it up every single time to prove how an event won’t reach its ceiling.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is a community comprised of weather enthusiasts who love to follow and discuss severe events as they approach. If you chime in simply to say “This is yet another event that won’t be as bad as you all are predicting”, what are you seeking to gain here?
 

ARCC

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Good point, it's always good to have a differing opionon.

Moving forward I'll take the devil's advocate advice and throw it into my soup of ideas. And just ignore any altercation or rebuttal on my end. I can't speak for everybody else. But I do feel like a few of the people in here's quotes were taking out of context a bit , but that is all I'm going to say.

It’s always best to really dive in and find out what will bust an event first and then work backwards towards why a setup will work. If you work the other way around you tend to get hyped up and then disregard mitigating factors.

Bust potential on this event was high on the CAMs the night before the event.
 

UncleJuJu98

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It’s always best to really dive in and find out what will bust an event first and then work backwards towards why a setup will work. If you work the other way around you tend to get hyped up and then disregard mitigating factors.

Bust potential on this event was high on the CAMs the night before the event.
Very good post thank you! That's a new way of thinking I haven't considered working backwards on a event like that
 

UncleJuJu98

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A lot of good writeups ; post event, does anybody else have any good info? I'd like to really start working on technical weather knowledge and severe forecasting is there any books anybody would recommend? I like to usually sit down And read that's how I learn best
 

Telstar

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A lot of good writeups ; post event, does anybody else have any good info? I'd like to really start working on technical weather knowledge and severe forecasting is there any books anybody would recommend? I like to usually sit down And read that's how I learn best
I think we unintentionally start to hype an upcoming event; I know I do. I get excited that some sort of tornado outbreak is coming; its like watching a thrilling movie. Then Head comes on and bursts our bubble. Perhaps I’m reading others here wrong, but for myself, I’m secretly disappointed that there won’t be any tornadoes to watch being chased on the web and feel like he’s a debbie-downer
 

UncleJuJu98

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I think we unintentionally start to hype an upcoming event; I know I do. I get excited that some sort of tornado outbreak is coming; its like watching a thrilling movie. Then Head comes on and bursts our bubble. Perhaps I’m reading others here wrong, but for myself, I’m secretly disappointed that there won’t be any tornadoes to watch being chased on the web and feel like he’s a debbie-downer
Your not alone, a lot of us like the weather; tornadoes, wind, hail and all of the above. I don't like when it hurts people though because I know people personally that's had they're lives changed and homes destroyed and I've came close to the same thing. In a preferred world we could have tornadoes form in the middle of nowhere to watch. But it's not possible. Kinda meets a moral problem when you like the weather so much but don't like what it does to people or places.

And yes a lot of people get a pseudo high off of seeing a big event coming. Some people go way too far in making these hypothetical tornado outbreak which you see if you just Google it.

And then there's the people that see nothing happening unless conditions meet April 27th level. Who see one thing wrong with a setup and think it's a complete bust and all we are going to see is a light rain. Lol my dad is one of those people haha
 

ColdFront

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I come here to get information about any threats to my area from you knowledgeable people. The person that appears the most accurate (including Mr. Gossage), is Casurarina head. Unfortunately, his opinions are usually ridiculed, mocked and talked-down-to by others here. I wish those people would give him a chance without dismissing his ideas outright. It appears that this attitude is because he is an outsider to the good-old-boys group who all agree with each other. I hope I’m wrong because I like all of you.
I believe this place has an excellent exchange of ideas, we had some users other than Head leading up to and during the event discussing the limiting factors on the potential yesterday.

I think we are all enthusiasts and trying to keep “score” is a pretty unfair judgement and saying others are wrong and right after an event is pretty unfair too, at the end of the day this is forecasting. We see what the data and models show and try and predict what happens.

I will say when Fred, Andy, or Richard talk, I listen. If you go back and read the 12/10 thread, all three of them were in the early stages days before the event saying “hey, you may want to pay attention to this one.”
 

JayF

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One of the most important parts of this is to try and keep emotions out of this type of discussion. It is all science and yes I know it is difficult as I can point the finger at myself when I say this. However the best outcomes and building up of the group, those who take part in these discussions and for the public at large is when we focus on the data, the interpretation of that data and how we all may look at the incoming data differently. I know I overlook things all of the time and as a community we can understand what is presented, interpret it, and help people really see what is possible and when things change we tell others exactly why it changed.

Be blessed you all and I hope that as we move into spring we can have great discussions about weather and if one person is spared because of the time and discussions here, it will all be worth it.

God Bless.
 
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A coupe notes from me. The models nailed the Helcity. The wind shear was low and kept things from spinning for the most part.

Also, on people’s opinions. This is a forum where you post your OPINIONS! Please stop getting offended if you don’t agree with someone else’s. It’s weather at the end of the day, and everyone opinion is welcomed. All meteorologist forecast are wrong at some point in their career.

Enjoy posting, learning, and always stay safe.
 

ARCC

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Very good post thank you! That's a new way of thinking I haven't considered working backwards on a event like that

Another thing to do is try to firmly remember other big severe events in our area both synoptic and mesoscale. For instance if you see a very scary setup on the models yet see several things that do not match up with big past events your mind should start throwing up red flags.

Does this mean you should then disregard the threat? Absolutely not, because new ways can happen to get the same results. However, it should immediately turn up the “hmmm” factor.
 

Telstar

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Your not alone, a lot of us like the weather; tornadoes, wind, hail and all of the above. I don't like when it hurts people though because I know people personally that's had they're lives changed and homes destroyed and I've came close to the same thing. In a preferred world we could have tornadoes form in the middle of nowhere to watch. But it's not possible. Kinda meets a moral problem when you like the weather so much but don't like what it does to people or places.

And yes a lot of people get a pseudo high off of seeing a big event coming. Some people go way too far in making these hypothetical tornado outbreak which you see if you just Google it.

And then there's the people that see nothing happening unless conditions meet April 27th level. Who see one thing wrong with a setup and think it's a complete bust and all we are going to see is a light rain. Lol my dad is one of those people haha
I think there can be a disconnect when the threat of tornadoes loom: they are scary awesome monsters and I kind of put away the thought that someone can be hurt or killed by them. Its only afterward that you see faces of the little children killed that it makes you cry. I think that, if some invention took away the threat of tornadoes tomorrow, everyone on this forum would be overjoyed for it: especially this forum because we see more than most what harm they do
 

xJownage

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My basic analysis that I don't have time to write in major detail like I did for 11/29...

"Why did yesterday underperform?"

Underperformance of the LLJ (Low Level Jet), directly due to the EML (elevated mixed layer) getting mixed down in the morning hours, caused dry air at the SFC (Surface) that raised the LCL (Lifting Condensation Level), which made the very poor LLLRs (Low Level Lapse Rates) more impactful than they'd be during an average dixie setup. As a consequence we had storms struggling to become discrete and additionally mature once they did. This also messed up the atmosphere downstream, as we ended up with cooling SFC temperatures prior to the storms arriving, which was part of the reason we ended up with such poor LLLRs. Storms also went OFD (outflow dominant) very quickly, often after only a single cycle, due to both extremely weak SR inflow (partially due to lacking LLJ) and storms initiating and crowding the warm sector while the low levels were still somewhat stable. This exacerbated the cold pooling issue, further weakening LLLRs.

A couple notes:
1. Mixed BL (boundary layer) causing LLJ to underperform is due to friction effects with the SFC. cloud breaks in the open warm sector created more mixing, which caused a snowball effect.
2. LLLRs are NOT REQUIRED for dixie at all. As I stated in my 11/29 post, we've had many an outbreak in dixie with sub 6C lapse rates. 3/25/21 comes to mind. LLLRs become more impactful when dry air mixes towards the surface, raising the LCL. Generally speaking, the higher the LCL, the more the lapse rates matter.
3. BL mixing generally tends to increase lapse rates, which is why we didn't believe this to be a massive failure mode when it was first picked up by CAMs mid-morning yesterday. Getting a more mixed BL and decreasing lapse rates requires multiple things to happen.
4. storms remaining disorganized for as long as they did, plus the poor SR inflow, contributed to the cold pooling issue.
 
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TH2002

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A coupe notes from me. The models nailed the Helcity. The wind shear was low and kept things from spinning for the most part.

Also, on people’s opinions. This is a forum where you post your OPINIONS! Please stop getting offended if you don’t agree with someone else’s. It’s weather at the end of the day, and everyone opinion is welcomed. All meteorologist forecast are wrong at some point in their career.

Enjoy posting, learning, and always stay safe.
This.

When @Casuarina Head posts his analysis/his take on an event or whatever, instead of people saying 'Yeah, I hope you're right and this busts!' they have to get massively insulted and borderline attack him. And this is what I just don't understand because it goes without saying that a bust is a good thing for the people who live in the risk area. I don't think it's ever anyone's intention to downplay a threat and say people shouldn't be prepared, and as others have pointed out, I think we can all agree it wasn't a bust for the folks who lost their homes yesterday.

With that said, I stopped trying to play 'amateur forecaster' for the most part after my horrendously inaccurate pre-analysis of the outbreak that spawned the Quad-State supercell - which I will never forgive myself for...
 

KoD

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Casuarina Head has been with us for a long time and he's no stranger to antagonism over the many years. I think we can all agree that he's allowed to post his opinion and the tensions only become an issue when others react aggressively towards it and create a multi-user back and forth. Hopefully in the future more people will ignore such posts they disagree with or respond respectfully and with evidence.

We have had a good informative educational thread here and I thank the many users who have contributed to the discussion! @xJownage I especially appreciate the thorough post-event break downs you've provided and I hope to continue to read more. That's something I have always wanted to see become a regular occurrence for notable events.
 

UncleJuJu98

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Casuarina Head has been with us for a long time and he's no stranger to antagonism over the many years. I think we can all agree that he's allowed to post his opinion and the tensions only become an issue when others react aggressively towards it and create a multi-user back and forth. Hopefully in the future more people will ignore such posts they disagree with or respond respectfully and with evidence.

We have had a good informative educational thread here and I thank the many users who have contributed to the discussion! @xJownage I especially appreciate the thorough post-event break downs you've provided and I hope to continue to read more. That's something I have always wanted to see become a regular occurrence for notable events.
Good post, moving forward I'd like to be more middle of the road on threats not leaning towards one way or another and getting offended; wasn't just me that had rebuttals yesterday but on my end I apologize to the staff on this forum and @Casuarina Head for any inconveniences I may have caused; keep posting and don't let previous interactions stall you from your opinion. I challenge everybody to overcome there own bias to there own forecasts and projected outcomes of events to make the forum a better place; a echo chamber is never a good thing and a toxic weather forum in general isn't a good thing for people that are weather enthusiasts.
 
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