Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[JayF]

Cullman county storm is severe warned now

Yep just noticed that.

 

[KevinH]

Yep just noticed that.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Some say we are done, some say not yet bc shear will increase after the sun goes down which COULD help things to fire up again.

Dixie is dynamic lol

 

[brianc33710]

This may be all we have outside of flood advisories & warnings tonight. We've probably had at least 2".

 

[JayF]

It will be interesting to see what happens. Some say we are done, some say not yet bc shear will increase after the sun goes down which COULD help things to fire up again.

Dixie is dynamic lol

That she is. Better to stay on guard than to say oh, it's over, and the next thing you know, boom, tornado.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It will be interesting to see what happens. Some say we are done, some say not yet bc shear will increase after the sun goes down which COULD help things to fire up again.

Dixie is dynamic lol

I think any real threat that could materliaze from the nocturnal jet will probably be south central and south Alabama but even there it's pretty low. About ready to say the threat for most of central is over. The Cullman storm has been sneaky at times but it looks to be finished.

 

[KevinH]

278
FXUS64 KBMX 162359
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
559 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
Issued at 553 PM CST THU FEB 16 2023

Convection this afternoon has struggled to organize over Central
Alabama despite favorable shear profiles and progged thermodynamics
supportive of sustained updrafts which haven't truly materialized
up to this point due to several limiting factors. Nearby PERiLS
upper air soundings have indicated that capping aloft did
eventually erode, but early onset of showers and thunderstorms and
associated convective anvil blowoff from southern Mississippi
into southwest Alabama resulted in subdued surface heating and
weaker lapse rates than anticipated across west Central Alabama
which has limited the intensity despite favorable shear profiles.
In fact, latest observed soundings and forecast guidance confirms
that the low-level jet is beginning to intensify as we head into
the evening hours leading to even more favorable shear profiles
and hodograph curvature. While shear profiles continue to support
thunderstorm organization, it appears that waning instability as a
result of poor lapse rates from congealed thunderstorms and loss
of peak heating will further limit severe potential as the
activity gradually progresses eastward. Some cells continue to
show broad rotation, so will continue to monitor for a tornado or
two over the next several hours. Also monitoring for localized
flooding as there has been some evidence of training with heavier
downpours in thunderstorm activity. Based on surface obs, the cold
front has begun to reach the AL/MS state line. Despite lingering
post-frontal showers and a few elevated thunderstorms, the severe
threat will end abruptly once the front passes by any given
location as surface winds veer sharply.

 

[KevinH]

That she is. Better to stay on guard than to say oh, it's over, and the next thing you know, boom, tornado.

RIGHT! People forget exactly that!!!!!!!! You can’t think like that in Dixie, especially while you are under a watch/warning.

 

[Breezy]

the minute you say she’s done dixie’ll prove you wrong

 

[UncleJuJu98]

These two storms near the state border have some broad rotation to them. Good structures too

 

[KevinH]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Reform Alabama really needs to watch out rotation is getting tight

 

[MoonBaby]

My signal is horrible due to the rain and living basically in the woods so my radars won’t move. Is it going towards Kennedy? I know people there I need to warn if so

 

[MoonBaby]

Someone posted that picture @UncleJuJu98 on twitter and referred to Pickens county as “ole reliable”. Is that secretly you haha

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Someone posted that picture @UncleJuJu98 on twitter and referred to Pickens county as “ole reliable”. Is that secretly you haha

No sir haha I'm a lurker on twitter

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tight couplet. Possibly a spin up. And it's gone the next scan! Lol these storms are one and done haha. Just like highly touted college basketball players lol

 

[MoonBaby]

I mostly lurk too and post pictures of the clouds. That account only exists for weather purposes as I am a boring person haha. Pretending that guy is you though.

No sir haha I'm a lurker on twitter

 

[MoonBaby]

So the sometimes spinny line in Pickens county is the front? There’s so much mess behind it now it’s confusing.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

So the sometimes spinny line in Pickens county is the front? There’s so much mess behind it now it’s confusing.

The front is still back in Mississippi somewhere along or around the line I drew I think. that's just frontal convection.

 

[RollTide18]

Still early to label it a bust but I’ll say…

Severe weather busts are so satisfying

 

[Justin Hindman]

I thank a storm chaser is upset they couldn’t report a tornado so they resorted to this