Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[JayF]

I’m sorry! I’m on my phone so everything looks small already. I’ll try to be more careful in the future.

It is no problem just trying to help everyone and keep the discussion flowing. . Be safe out there

 

[MattPetrulli]

Something of note to keep an eye on, UH tracks on HRRR haven't really been intense over the past several runs. Obviously UH tracks aren't the only thing that indicates tornado potential, but it's something to keep note of.

ARW is a bit more intense however, but NSSL isn't much better than HRRR

A signal to keep note of through this event.

 

[DanielD]

Something of note to keep an eye on, UH tracks on HRRR haven't really been intense over the past several runs. Obviously UH tracks aren't the only thing that indicates tornado potential, but it's something to keep note of.

ARW is a bit more intense however, but NSSL isn't much better than HRRR

A signal to keep note of through this event.

It is worth noting, they have at least 1-2 possible longed lived cells.

 

[xJownage]

View attachment 17907
Low level shear really trended down. This is good news - if this actually verifies and shear isn't higher than depcited here. We will probably still get tornadoes with any discrete supercell, but hopefully weak ones (obviously none are preferred) N AL, MS and S TN still could be in for a shot of an EF2+ tornado though potentially.
NAM still going for widely much stronger shear. Hopefully all will be revealed when we get a few sounding launches

This is due to mixing in the low levels projected by the HRRR. Cloud breaks in the WS will result in mixing increasing, and this will cause the LLJ to include the SFC and consequently be weaker due to Friction.

 

[Austin Dawg]

There is a lot of energy behind the system and is helping push it. Gusts over 30 mph here with very cold, very dry wind. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming


ETA- We were over 80 yesterday

 

[UK_EF4]

This is due to mixing in the low levels projected by the HRRR. Cloud breaks in the WS will result in mixing increasing, and this will cause the LLJ to include the SFC and consequently be weaker due to Friction.

Presumably this is a bit of a feedback loop as well... a stronger LLJ would probably mean better moisture advection which would be offsetting the decreasing dps due to mixing. I remember Rich Thompson describing something similar in one of his workshops a few years back.

 

[JBishopwx]

No changes at the 1730 SPC update.

 

[Tanner]

Yeah, I wouldn’t be too excited for this setup as a chaser…but very enthusiastic as someone who is living under the risk that it isn’t looking too bad.


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[South AL Wx]

From the latest SPC outlook:

"Modest
low-level elongation and curvature of hodographs (evident in
mesoanalysis and regional VADs) suggest that storms that organize in
the near-term could become tornadic supercells. However, the
low-level jet should gradually shift northward from the warm-sector
today, which is expected to temper hodograph length/curvature,
serving as the primary reason for withholding a moderate risk
upgrade this outlook. Nonetheless, an appreciable risk for tornadoes
(a couple of which may be strong) necessitates the maintenance of
Category 3/Enhanced probabilities, and a narrow corridor of locally
higher tornado potential may briefly occur somewhere across eastern
MS into central AL this afternoon."

 

[xJownage]

Yeah, I wouldn’t be too excited for this setup as a chaser…but very enthusiastic as someone who is living under the risk that it isn’t looking too bad.


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I wouldn't say that. we're still looking at a widespread event with several sigtors likely.

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like they extended the 10% hatched east a bit.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Something of note to keep an eye on, UH tracks on HRRR haven't really been intense over the past several runs. Obviously UH tracks aren't the only thing that indicates tornado potential, but it's something to keep note of.

ARW is a bit more intense however, but NSSL isn't much better than HRRR

A signal to keep note of through this event.

I'm kinda curious at to how accurate those are. With the higher lapse rates I'd almost feel as if it's a bit underdone. Not a 100% sure on how it calculates it. Just my thoughts

 

[MattPetrulli]

I'm kinda curious at to how accurate those are. With the higher lapse rates I'd almost feel as if it's a bit underdone. Not a 100% sure on how it calculates it. Just my thoughts

From my experience they're generally a good signal for some type of limiting factor. Goes half and half though, a lot of higher end events of recent had decent UH signals though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[DanielD]

As a side note, several places around north alabama, are not that far away from the record highs today. Probably 4-6 degrees lower from forecast highs. From HUN info.

 

[JBishopwx]

72/67 here just outside of Ackerman, west of Starkville.

 

[Gail]

72/67 here just outside of Ackerman, west of Starkville.

72/65 just to your East in Caledonia.

 

[Richardjacks]

watching Brookhaven MS

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Important to watch the stuff starting now. I remember back on the long track tornado day earlier in January. It' started off booming and then everybody realized we were in for a long day.

 

[Clancy]

1630Z update nudged the threat eastward some. Sigtor threat now extends further east into parts of C AL east of Birmingham. Low-end tornado threat for W GA.