DanielD
Member
I know right? The sun is out. Thank you for the welcome. I've been hanging out here since 2001 I believe when there was maybe 25 members lol. OK sorry to get off topic.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Gail
Member
For what it’s worth…
JPWX
Member
Already 70 degrees here in Smithville, MS with a dewpoint of 65 along with a south wind.
DanielD
Member
Hanceville/Garden City 71⁰F DP 64
Gail
Member
Tornado watch until 5 PM for Mississippi
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atrainguy
Member
I apologize if I've somehow missed this somewhere, but if this event verifies, roughly what time can we expect things to fire off?
70/40 tornado probs for that tornado watch.
Gail
Member
NOT TODAY but we were doing the same thing a year ago today. ‘Tis the season.
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DanielD
Member
From BMX, central Alabama a narrow corridor from 2-11pm. West 12pm start up. That's from BMX
Kim30
Member
Sun trying coming out with temp 68 & dp 62 in Athens, AL. I take it this is not a good thing?
hashslingingslasher256
Member
Sun is out in Gadsden.
DanielD
Member
It was partly sunny a little while ago, now mostly sunny Hanceville,AL. So it has time to get a little warmer. The high was forecast 73⁰, could easily get there.
In my opinion any supercells further north (N MS & AL, S TM) will have the potential to produce EF2-3 tornadoes, further south I think weak tornadoes are more likely (maybe a low end EF2) - yet if the southern mode grows upscale then in a sense the northern mode is 'cut-off' (we saw something similar in 25/3/2021 event) and northern mode may not even exist. This is mainly based of HRRR. I am eager to see hodographs on observed soundings because a couple CAMS are showing stornger shear than the HRRR which would obviously worsen the event.
Gail
Member
I work on base, but I took today off since schools are releasing so early. It looks like there’s a lot of clearing there.
I'd imagine some of the lower shear today if there is that. may be offset by high low level lapse rates if we can get those. With the sun being out I'd say it's a good possibility. Don't need a whole lot of shear to get tornadoes.
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DanielD
Member
That seems to be a common theme in the warm sector as of now
F
Former Member 1430
Guest
I completely
I completely agree with your assessment. I will be curious to see which way this event goes
Gail
Member
I’m sorry! I’m on my phone so everything looks small already. I’ll try to be more careful in the future.
