Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[KevinH]

This isn't the exact verification criteria (it's not like the forecasters sit there counting how many tornadoes they expect), but is a rough guide of verification for a mathematical standpoint. I think the practically perfect verification system uses something similar.

Thank you. Why did twitter mark this as “sensitive content” ROFL!!!

 

[KevinH]

Early clearing already. Stout EML is a huge red flag in dixie. STP has downtrended on recent runs, due to less deep moisture (owing to slight mixing) and the LLJ being slightly weaker by 5-10 knots, which led to a slightly smaller warm sector. This goes in direct contrast to obs forecasting, however, which would point towards a larger than forecast warm sector. Still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding exactly the caliber of event we're talking about.

Dixie Alley playing with us…. SMH

Thank you for posting this

 

[KevinH]

I’m unaware of a standard “official” definition for the words tornado outbreak. The 6-10 or more tornadoes has been a general framework for most. There have been papers written examining potential criteria, and some are easily searchable on Google. Some outside of the NWS have made up definitions as well. However, nothing standard or objectively agreed upon. But then again, I may have missed the memo.

Thank you.

 

[Former Member 1430]

This is in Shelbyville TN, sun already making its way out

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[cheestaysfly]

The sun has been peeking through the clouds a little bit here in Florence. I'm pretty sketched out about the weather coming through the NW corner today.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Yep I’m afraid northern AL and Southern Middle TN are going to take it on the chin

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yep I’m afraid northern AL and Southern Middle TN are going to take it on the chin

You can literally see the hook echos on some of the cells. High ceiling day. Hope it busts.

Not a official weather model though it's his in house.model I think

 

[Former Member 1430]

You can literally see the hook echos on some of the cells. High ceiling day. Hope it busts.

Not a official weather model though it's his in house.model I think

Yep if that verifies we are talking multiple long track tornadoes possible. I hope this busts too because a very destructive day is on the table

 

[xJownage]

M shaped hodos are very dangerous because they encourage venting and discourage cycles. The lack of LLJ being forecast would help temper the larger scale threat for high end tors.

 

[JBishopwx]

Catching up... But if a tornado hits your house or city, that will be your outbreak. Anywho, busy day ahead. Hope everyone stays safe.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

NWS of mobile meteorlgist

 

[Kragg]

And... most of the cloud cover is gone here in the Birmingham metro with a good steady south wind

 

[Blountwolf]

The typical I-20 in Meridian shifting over time up to I-65 to Huntsville looks to be the chase corridor today. Kind of amazing how much of a tornado alley that area is - seems like a lot of systems run right through there.

Here's hoping it fizzles entirely, even if it means a lot of teeth gnashing here on TW.

 

[UK_EF4]

Low level shear really trended down. This is good news - if this actually verifies and shear isn't higher than depcited here. We will probably still get tornadoes with any discrete supercell, but hopefully weak ones (obviously none are preferred) N AL, MS and S TN still could be in for a shot of an EF2+ tornado though potentially.
NAM still going for widely much stronger shear. Hopefully all will be revealed when we get a few sounding launches

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The typical I-20 in Meridian shifting over time up to I-65 to Huntsville looks to be the chase corridor today. Kind of amazing how much of a tornado alley that area is - seems like a lot of systems run right through there.

Here's hoping it fizzles entirely, even if it means a lot of teeth gnashing here on TW.

I hope it fizzles too

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sounding over Mississippi just came in

 

[DanielD]

I hope that run doesn't verify. I live in hanceville/Garden City.

 

[MichelleH]

I hope that run doesn't verify. I live in hanceville/Garden City.

Welcome to TalkWeather! I live in Hanceville too. Today could be rather rough.

 

[Mundiejc]

Latest hrrr looks like central alabama mixing out and temps rocketing towards 80 degrees. If I remember correctly, that saved a large area March 2012 when I was living in Nashville. Huge supe went right over downtown but was a hailer as the storm wasn’t fully rooted when dp crashed below 60 degrees