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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

Justin Hindman said:
Are we really gonna argue about if spc makes the map a little red or keep it at orange . In all seriousness tho, a lot of questions on how serious things will be will just have to happen as it happens.
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This is one of my pet peeves. It feels like too many people try to forecast the SPC instead of the weather. The SPC issuing a MDT or HIGH is not the risk that potentially ends lives, it's the weather - so let's forecast the weather and not what the SPC is going to do.
 
xJownage said:
This is one of my pet peeves. It feels like too many people try to forecast the SPC instead of the weather. The SPC issuing a MDT or HIGH is not the risk that potentially ends lives, it's the weather - so let's forecast the weather and not what the SPC is going to do.
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Indeed. We can make our best educated guesses as to what the weather might do, but at the end of the day the weather will do what it wants to do.
 
UK_EF4 said:
I believe an outbreak is 12 or more tornadoes. And someone has come up with a calculation for the number of tornadoes mathematically expected in a certain SPC risk, so that can be used roughly to verify SPC risks in a technical way away from just eyeballing it and seeing.
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Ok cool. Who is this “someone” and where is their calculation? I hate math but I’d be willing to do some math for tornadoes lol
 
Time of arrival from FFC. The good ol' late-night West Georgia "I will either give you warm rain or a surprise spin-up, depending on how I feel" from mother nature.
 
KevinH said:
Ok cool. Who is this “someone” and where is their calculation? I hate math but I’d be willing to do some math for tornadoes lol
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This isn't the exact verification criteria (it's not like the forecasters sit there counting how many tornadoes they expect), but is a rough guide of verification for a mathematical standpoint. I think the practically perfect verification system uses something similar.
 
Early clearing already. Stout EML is a huge red flag in dixie. STP has downtrended on recent runs, due to less deep moisture (owing to slight mixing) and the LLJ being slightly weaker by 5-10 knots, which led to a slightly smaller warm sector. This goes in direct contrast to obs forecasting, however, which would point towards a larger than forecast warm sector. Still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding exactly the caliber of event we're talking about.
 
KevinH said:
Ok cool. Who is this “someone” and where is their calculation? I hate math but I’d be willing to do some math for tornadoes lol
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I’m unaware of a standard “official” definition for the words tornado outbreak. The 6-10 or more tornadoes has been a general framework for most. There have been papers written examining potential criteria, and some are easily searchable on Google. Some outside of the NWS have made up definitions as well. However, nothing standard or objectively agreed upon. But then again, I may have missed the memo.
 
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UK_EF4 said:
I believe an outbreak is 12 or more tornadoes. And someone has come up with a calculation for the number of tornadoes mathematically expected in a certain SPC risk, so that can be used roughly to verify SPC risks in a technical way away from just eyeballing it and seeing.
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I was not arguing.

He made a claim and I wanted to see where he got his information from.

Let’s remember that communicating via text is not the most efficient bc there is no way to hear a person’s tone, or see the expression on someone’s face. Without those two bits of context, it can be very easy to misinterpret someone’s words/intention.

Again, I genuinely wanted to know where this scientific criteria came from (so I can look it up and go down a few rabbit holes from past events and take notes).

Yesterday BMX said that todays forecast is tricky. Regardless of what the models, forecasts, Mets, etc., nothing is ever 100% guaranteed with the weather until it actually happens. Most of us know there are SOOOO many *DYNAMIC* factors that determine what the weather does. Those factors can change at any time.

Listen, Dixie Alley has an ATTITUDE problem, and doesn’t follow the “rules”, does what it wants, and may throw out an unexpected curve ball at the last minute that models/forecasts did not pick up on.

I am in a marginal risk area today in W C GA (literally on the AL/GA state line lol). Do I expect tornadoes? Not really, but I am not fooled due to what I said above. “Fool me once…”.

If you are chasing or in *ANY* risk area, PLEASE for the love of God stay informed, (inform OTHERS) and stay safe!!!!!!!!!!
 
Richardjacks said:
It's not a good idea to compare an outbreak to another outbreak, as they all are very different and impact people very differently. However, each outbreak can teach us a little more about the science. Also, understand how small, subtle differences can have large impacts on each event. Also, you must consider climatology differences. An event in February is not going to look like an event in April--what is necessary for one season, isn't as important in another. We all have our opinions on what will happen, but what matters most is, WHY so we all can learn and carry that forward in future events in hopes of saving lives.
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This.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I’m unaware of a standard “official” definition. The 6-10 or more tornadoes has been a general framework for most. There have been papers written examining potential criteria, and some are easily searchable on Google. Some outside of the NWS have made up definitions as well. However, nothing standard or objectively agreed upon. But then again, I may have missed the memo.
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Yep, no official criteria. Those interested can get more in depth than you'll ever need here:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/4/BAMS-D-20-0076.1.xml

Back to nowcasting - sun just came out here. Never a good sign. Anything that forms is likely to be rough.
 
Tennie said:
Indeed. We can make our best educated guesses as to what the weather might do, but at the end of the day the weather will do what it wants to do.
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Exactly! And we don’t always know what the weather is going to do. BMX even said that the forecast today is going to be tricky, so if the FORECAST OFFICE is going to have trouble with the forecast, why can’t we just wait and see? Lol
 
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