Casuarina Head
Member
At this point I am still skeptical that a MDT Risk will verify tornado-wise, much less “4/27 lite.” I think there will be an isolated supercell that produces an intense tornado or two, but multiple long-lived, intense tornado families seem rather unlikely at this time. The major threat appears to be localised and based on the mesoscale rather than synoptic scale. The aerial coverage of discrete activity also looks to be rather limited. People should definitely be prepared, but I still think that this event will not reach its “ceiling,” especially compared to projections* that were issued several days ago.I haven't been paying super close attention since I went to sleep and then work, but it doesn't seem like anything too bad has happened overnight. No long-lasting, clear TDSs (although most of the tornado-warned storms have been in horrible radar holes) and no reports of major damage that I know of.
However, you are right, the HRRR is very ominous (surprisingly so, to me) for Alabama and portions of neighboring states this afternoon and has been consistent with that over quite a few runs now. Again at risk of hyperbole, but some of the simulated reflectivity looks disturbingly like a "4/27 lite."
*Modelled, not SPC
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