Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[akt1985]

Right now, is the threat for north Alabama on Thursday afternoon/evening or is it more overnight?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Right now, is the threat for north Alabama on Thursday afternoon/evening or is it more overnight?

I wouldn't focus on timing yet, Too much uncertainty with timing as of now which is to be expected because it's 5-6 days out. although the threat seems to be high for severe weather (some significant) across the entire risk area.

 

[KevinH]

Starting to see the 30+ contour on cips analogs. Oof. Curious to the analogs for it now, I can never find the tab where it shows similar events anymore.lol

Oh good grief. The 30% is just south of Montgomery which is the area I watch as storms to to travel east or NE. This would potentially bring storms right through my area.

Will be interesting in seeing how all of this evolves in the coming days. Out of all of the events in the past few weeks/months, THIS is the one I need to watch the most in W-C GA. Thank you for posting!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That’s bout way I see it too. Maybe not quite far north as that . But expect both day 5 and day 6 have a 30 prob area . This is setting up to be first high risk day in awhile that’s if things hold on.

How I see it is that consensus in previous top analogs on cips is that similar setups to the one we are seeing wensday/Thursday produced the highest volume of severe reports in central / south central Alabama with the 30+% contour being in extreme south Central Alabama on cips.

So in general based off past analogs it thinks your biggest risk area will be around central Alabama. With even a pixel of almost 45-50% on the pixelated version. *Still early on in the ball game things will change.*

 

[KevinH]

How I see it is that consensus in previous top analogs on cips is that similar setups to the one we are seeing wensday/Thursday produced the highest volume of severe reports in central / south central Alabama with the 30+% contour being in extreme south Central Alabama on cips.

So in general based off past analogs it thinks your biggest risk area will be around central Alabama. With even a pixel of almost 45-50% on the pixelated version. *Still early on in the ball game things will change.*View attachment 17738

Are we allowed to cuss on here?

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Are we allowed to cuss on here?

I once used the F word in reaction to a bare slab in VA after a tornado (that wasn't even slightly well built it seems). Post got edited and I got warned. So no.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Are we allowed to cuss on here?

Lol don't hype it up, just putting raw data from cips out there and how i interpret it. Personally I don't buy a higher risk on cips in south Alabama like it does I would think a higher risk outline would be central Alabama and north Alabama just for my state.

Cips analog isn't gospel, just a tool to help understand possible risks of a upcoming event

 

[Former Member 1430]

How I see it is that consensus in previous top analogs on cips is that similar setups to the one we are seeing wensday/Thursday produced the highest volume of severe reports in central / south central Alabama with the 30+% contour being in extreme south Central Alabama on cips.

So in general based off past analogs it thinks your biggest risk area will be around central Alabama. With even a pixel of almost 45-50% on the pixelated version. *Still early on in the ball game things will change.*View attachment 17738

I believe this will change significantly. I expect the models to continue to trend with the moisture return to the north. Where the best dynamics and moisture quality meet is where we will have a bullseye for the strongest storms. Personally, I do not see it staying that far south because the stronger dynamics will be further north

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I believe this will change significantly. I expect the models to continue to trend with the moisture return to the north. Where are the best dynamics and moisture quality meet is where we will have a bullseye for the strongest storms. Personally, I do not see it staying that far south because the stronger dynamics will be further north

Agreed, that's why I think for Alabama portion it'll be. Central and north Alabama. I think cips is picking up on the idea of higher severe probs but doesn't have the exact location well.

But I would like to note, you don't need close proximity to dynamics to necessarily have significant severe weather (it's definetly a enhancer being closer but not a must). April 28th 2014. Is a prime example (as well as the 27th and the violent vilonia Arkansas tornado.) many bad tornadoes in Mississippi with dynamics all the way in Nebraska lol.

 

[KevinH]

I once used the F word in reaction to a bare slab in VA after a tornado (that wasn't even slightly well built it seems). Post got edited and I got warned. So no.

Ok good to know. I will pin this comment in my head for next week

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Always like checking this guys model out , I'll keep a eye on it lol

 

[KevinH]

Lol don't hype it up, just putting raw data from cips out there and how i interpret it. Personally I don't buy a higher risk on cips in south Alabama like it does I would think a higher risk outline would be central Alabama and north Alabama just for my state.

Cips analog isn't gospel, just a tool to help understand possible risks of a upcoming event

Agreed on southern AL.

And I live right next to central AL so I am wanting to see what happens lol

 

[KevinH]

I believe this will change significantly. I expect the models to continue to trend with the moisture return to the north. Where the best dynamics and moisture quality meet is where we will have a bullseye for the strongest storms. Personally, I do not see it staying that far south because the stronger dynamics will be further north

I can see that too! Even with my limited understanding of weather lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'd like to note also that the whole system is very broad. So it'll likely be a pretty expansive risk area for the possibility of significant severe. It isn't a tight confined area. Wind fields on this system and instability are far reaching. Modest to high winds at 850mb is expansive.

 

[KevinH]

For reference, when I say I live in W-C GA, THIS is exactly where I mean lol. Needless to say I watch what is happening in Central and Southern AL VERY closely. This upcoming event has my attention.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

For reference, when I say I live in W-C GA, THIS is exactly where I mean lol. Needless to say I watch what is happening in Central and Southern AL VERY closely. This upcoming event has my attention.

View attachment 17739

Good grief man, just say you live in Alabama nobody would notice hahaha

 

[Former Member 1430]

I'd like to note also that the whole system is very broad. So it'll likely be a pretty expansive risk area for the possibility of significant severe. It isn't a tight confined area. Wind fields on this system and instability are far reaching. Modest to high winds at 850mb is expansive. View attachment 17740View attachment 17741

This was exactly my thoughts. I think the risk area will be quite large and possibly underestimated. There could be quite a large area that gets rocked by this storm system.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This was exactly my thoughts. I think the risk area will be quite large and possibly underestimated. There could be quite a large area that gets rocked by this storm system.

Very reminiscent in scope of March 2nd 2012. Keeps popping in my mind. Not in terms of magnitude but risk area. But I'm not sure that the highest risk would be in the Kentucky area like March 2nd. I'd say just off how I see it probably Tennessee Alabama and Mississippi

 

[Former Member 1430]

Very reminiscent in scope of March 2nd 2012. Keeps popping in my mind. Not in terms of magnitude but risk area. But I'm not sure that the highest risk would be in the Kentucky area like March 2nd. I'd say just off how I see it probably Tennessee Alabama and Mississippi

We are on the same page unfortunately. For the fun of it I’m going to post a map later where I think the highest risk will be.

 

[Casuarina Head]

That’s bout way I see it too. Maybe not quite far north as that . But expect both day 5 and day 6 have a 30 prob area . This is setting up to be first high risk day in awhile that’s if things hold on.

I would actually be rather shocked if a future High-Risk day were to actually verify tornado-wise. I’ll bet the current ceiling will come down a lot in the end.