Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[KevinH]

Good grief man, just say you live in Alabama nobody would notice hahaha

I am this close lol

 

[cincywx]

I would actually be rather shocked if a future High-Risk day were to actually verify tornado-wise. I’ll bet the current ceiling will come down a lot in the end.

still too early to tell at this point. the most alarming thing is the consistency on the models. its been a long time since we've had a threat in which we weren't talking about model inconsistency. the tone is certainly different this time

 

[UncleJuJu98]

DUDE! I love this hahahah

 

[Casuarina Head]

still too early to tell at this point. the most alarming thing is the consistency on the models. its been a long time since we've had a threat in which we weren't talking about model inconsistency. the tone is certainly different this time

Yes, it’s early, but in terms of high(-er)-end tornado threats recent history has yet to disprove my contention. Even a lot of lesser events recently have trended toward lower-end outcomes in the short range. Of course there will be hazardous weather, but I don’t think we will come close to realising the higher-end tornado potential that is currently being suggested by the modelled consensus. We shall see, of course.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

on

Yes, it’s early, but in terms of high(-er)-end tornado threats recent history has yet to disprove my contention. Even a lot of lesser events recently have trended toward lower-end outcomes in the short range. Of course there will be hazardous weather, but I don’t think we will come close to realising the higher-end tornado potential that is currently being suggested by the modelled consensus. We shall see, of course.

It's been split on the lesser events we had two or three that really boomed in January and then the last two events have petered out of gone coastal which still produced one or two ef3s.

Synoptically though we are not relying on mesoscale features to make this a bigger threat that's the thing. So if mesoscale models come in and boom it'll be a pretty hefty event. *A lot of meteorlgists are sounding the alarm on this being a significant event, but it's always good to be a devil's advocate and level expectations like your doing* always good to have a level head even I get on the hype train a lot and have to jump off of it lol

 

[Former Member 1430]

Yes, it’s early, but in terms of high(-er)-end tornado threats recent history has yet to disprove my contention. Even a lot of lesser events recently have trended toward lower-end outcomes in the short range. Of course there will be hazardous weather, but I don’t think we will come close to realising the higher-end tornado potential that is currently being suggested by the modelled consensus. We shall see, of course.

Personally I hope you are correct in the end however I strongly disagree with your line of thinking. I don’t see this trending downward, if anything I see it trending toward a more expansive area. I am not going to say this will be high risk because it’s way too early to call right now, but I don’t believe the SPC would use the wording they are using unless this was a very serious event likely to happen. This certainly has the potential to be a very high end event.

 

[KevinH]

Personally I hope you are correct in the end however I strongly disagree with your line of thinking. I don’t see this tending downward, if anything I see it trending toward a more expansive area. I am not going to say this will be high risk because it’s way too early to call right now, but I don’t believe the SPC would use the wording they are using unless this was a very serious event likely to happen. This certainly has the potential to be a very high end event.

Powerful jet, LARGE WARM SECTOR, and MOISTURE. Just some things that spell trouble.

To Causarinas point though, there have been events that have “underperformed” given what models were saying in the previous days leading up to them BUT I am not too sure this upcoming event will be one of them. Potential definitely seems higher than in recent events.

I don’t like it, but I live in the south.

 

[KoD]

*patiently waiting for @Fred Gossage *

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I would actually be rather shocked if a future High-Risk day were to actually verify tornado-wise. I’ll bet the current ceiling will come down a lot in the end.

dont know causuanna , that trough has that look to it, i been big severe wx interest since i was 12... course thing will change bit. we see, but my interest in this setup is very intrgued

 

[Tanner]

I would actually be rather shocked if a future High-Risk day were to actually verify tornado-wise. I’ll bet the current ceiling will come down a lot in the end.

Always downplaying...

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Powerful jet, LARGE WARM SECTOR, and MOISTURE. Just some things that spell trouble.

To Causarinas point though, there have been events that have “underperformed” given what models were saying in the previous days leading up to them BUT I am not too sure this upcoming event will be one of them. Potential definitely seems higher than in recent events.

I don’t like it, but I live in the south.

Statistically, Causarinas will be correct most of the time. High end events require so many elements to come together, and that’s why they are so rare.

The flip side is they also often lead to more destruction, so that’s why when the early signals start to show, we need to pay attention (just in case) and make sure there is as much time as possible to get the attention level up (without being apocalyptic).

So I expect to hear a lot on these types of setups on a weather nerd forum, even though the odds are it will not be that bad.

Please keep the “inside baseball” stuff coming.


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[tennessee storm chaser]

anyone think of another system come to mind showing this type trough with downslope look to it. my mind is blank at the moment. just has that wicked look to it

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Statistically, Causarinas will be correct most of the time. High end events require so many elements to come together, and that’s why they are so rare.

The flip side is they also often lead to more destruction, so that’s why when the early signals start to show, we need to pay attention (just in case) and make sure there is as much time as possible to get the attention level up (without being apocalyptic).

So I expect to hear a lot on these types of setups on a weather nerd forum, even though the odds are it will not be that bad.

Please keep the “inside baseball” stuff coming.


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Good post!

Hope for the best (no severe) ; plan for the worst (outbreak) when it comes to potential high impact events.

 

[KevinH]

Good post!

Hope for the best (no severe) ; plan for the worst (outbreak) when it comes to potential high impact events.

I’ve always that severe weather was a double edged sword.

On one side we don’t want it to happen to destroy people’s lives. On the other you can’t study severe weather to know how to prepare for it unless and until it happens :/

Tick tock Dixie Alley… TICK TOCK!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

New cips analog (12z) support's more of a deep south outbreak.
High numbers about 40-50% within a given range of about 65-70 miles of a point ; for around the missippi Alabama border for tornado reports.

Curious as to which analogs the 12z is pulling from . Hey @Clancy anyway you can pull them up I never figured out how to get the top analogs to show.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Something else that may be of note, a MCS seems to track through Mississippi and Alabama through the night early morning on Wednesday and then Thursday morning ahead of the risk of severe on Thursday through that area. May not have enough time to destabilize and may not time up well.

Could that create a substantial cold pool aloft? @xJownage

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This MCS or rain shield could complicate things a good bit, it can really help with nasty storms or/and could hinder warm sector development. It may also hinder northward propagation of the warm sector instability north of Tennessee.....
I think I read in Fred's analysis in the April 27th 2011 event. Broken up and decaying MCS create more substantial cold pools may be wrong correct me if I am.

Lightening density forecast for the mcs per the euro.

 

[Timhsv]

Something else that may be of note, a MCS seems to track through Mississippi and Alabama through the night early morning on Wednesday and then Thursday morning ahead of the risk of severe on Thursday through that area. May not have enough time to destabilize and may not time up well.

Could that create a substantial cold pool aloft? @xJownage[/USER

[/QUOTE]
If that would occur from over night convection, that is what could really concern me and the area it comes across. That one particular CIPS analog above is really an eye opener.
There's so much still that needs looking at, and we certainly need to get with the NAM range, but the whole "pattern" is growing very concerning if the low level moisture return is strong and is real.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like in the most recent runs the low pressure is weaker with weaker wind fields, see how this trend continues. Past couple of systems have had issues with the strength of the low pressure systems lol. I'd imagine mesoscale models will compensate that.

 

[Clancy]

New cips analog (12z) support's more of a deep south outbreak.
High numbers about 40-50% within a given range of about 65-70 miles of a point ; for around the missippi Alabama border for tornado reports.

Curious as to which analogs the 12z is pulling from . Hey @Clancy anyway you can pull them up I never figured out how to get the top analogs to show.

I usually use this page from CIPS to find the analogs; just select your desired date and click on a relevant area of the map for top analogs for that given sector.

CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance

www.eas.slu.edu