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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

Clancy said:
No worries, we all learn new things every day haha
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5th top analog for Thursday is super Tuesday lol. At the 136 hour forecast timeframe. Found another section of cips analogs that gives you the top analogs on a tab in the top left.

Super Tuesday is the only event in the top 5 that produced major severe weather it looks like. Tried checking them allScreenshot_2023-02-11-13-51-39-35_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
5th top analog for Thursday is super Tuesday lol. At the 136 hour forecast timeframe. Found another section of cips analogs that gives you the top analogs on a tab in the top left.

Super Tuesday is the only event in the top 5 that produced major severe weather it looks like. Tried checking them all
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I've no clue to the track record of CIPS' analogs listings so I definitely wouldn't take them as gospel, but it's another tool in the toolbox.
 
Trough ejection isn’t looking as favorable as it did a couple days ago and there is a lack of phasing with the STJ. Not really seeing a bigger event right now.
 
andyhb said:
Trough ejection isn’t looking as favorable as it did a couple days ago and there is a lack of phasing with the STJ. Not really seeing a bigger event right now.
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Trough ejection looks the same to me which models are you looking at?

Looks the same to me as when the board first started talking about it Big broad based trough is ejecting the same as a two days ago the only thing I see is the phasing not being as tight as it was and a little bit of a higher pressure surface low, winds have backed down a bit but that's in relation to the higher pressure low.
 
Models do seem to be trending *ever* so slightly less favourable with each run, especially the latest 18z GFS. That being said, even the current model runs would still likely be a ENH-MOD type event with the risk for significant severe, so by no means should we dismiss any severe threat at all, not that anyone was suggesting. Even then, trends have the opportunity to always change etc, though at least for now hopefully things go in a better direction. We will see I guess, as we know the ceiling could be quite high.

Edit: This post is mainly in regards to Thursday. Wednesday night still looks pretty robust with a wide open warm sector. Pulled multiple soundings with 300 0-1km SRH with decent surface based instability.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Maybe its in my head but it seems like lately when threats get in the day 5/6 range it's a bit wonky. and then starts to go back to what it was in the beginning at the 3/4 day range.
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Good point. Outstanding recognition. Winter storms do the same thing in 5 to 7 day window. . Even take it away then back it goes … even todays runs look like a moderate type risk to me were it’s warranted . Nothing set in stone for sure
 
The new GFS run compared to the last one has the surface low 6mb deeper at around 996ish to the 1000-1002ish range of the previous 12z and seems to be better ejection. We are still on track of major event. There's going to be a tug o war it seems. Just the range we are in at the moment. It'd be good if it went less severe but we will see. Screenshot_2023-02-11-16-30-36-96_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-02-11-16-30-14-34_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
The new GFS run compared to the last one has the surface low 6mb deeper at around 996ish to the 1000-1002ish range of the previous 12z and seems to be better ejection.
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Let’s see how the tonight’s 0z runs tell us… looks like we are heading back to square one lol. If the 18z gfs is on to something
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Trough ejection looks the same to me which models are you looking at?

Looks the same to me as when the board first started talking about it Big broad based trough is ejecting the same as a two days ago the only thing I see is the phasing not being as tight as it was and a little bit of a higher pressure surface low, winds have backed down a bit but that's in relation to the higher pressure low.
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All of them.

The trough by Thursday is lifting further north and getting sheared against the southeast ridge, which decreases the low-level response, and the phasing with the sub-tropical jet is less complete on both days. The LLJ is not as strong as was suggested a couple of days ago due to the weaker surface low. In addition, with the trough lifting further north, there is less cold air aloft overlapping the warm sector, decreasing instability.
 
andyhb said:
All of them.

The trough by Thursday is lifting further north and getting sheared against the southeast ridge, which decreases the low-level response, and the phasing with the sub-tropical jet is less complete on both days. The LLJ is not as strong as was suggested a couple of days ago due to the weaker surface low. In addition, with the trough lifting further north, there is less cold air aloft overlapping the warm sector, decreasing instability.
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Good write up!
 
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