Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[tennessee storm chaser]

What'd you think of the 18z GFS run @andyhb?

Looks more towards a 0z solution than it did at the 12 z gfs run of today . Imo maybe slightly less phasing

 

[KevinH]

All of them.

The trough by Thursday is lifting further north and getting sheared against the southeast ridge, which decreases the low-level response, and the phasing with the sub-tropical jet is less complete on both days. The LLJ is not as strong as was suggested a couple of days ago due to the weaker surface low. In addition, with the trough lifting further north, there is less cold air aloft overlapping the warm sector, decreasing instability.

Did you also say this on Twitter?

*looks*

Lol

 

[andyhb]

Did you also say this on Twitter?

*looks*

Lol

My tweet about the coming couple of weeks wasn't just about severe weather.

 

[KevinH]

My tweet about the coming couple of weeks wasn't just about severe weather.

Fair

 

[KevinH]

Look at all those 60s

 

[JPWX]

Don't sleep on Tuesday. Could be a few strong to severe storms across Mississippi. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC went with a Marginal Risk by tomorrow.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Don't sleep on Tuesday. Could be a few strong to severe storms across Mississippi. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC went with a Marginal Risk by tomorrow.

I was talking about that event earlier, could lead to a eventual cold pool for Thursday in Mississippi and possibly alabama

 

[xJownage]

Something else that may be of note, a MCS seems to track through Mississippi and Alabama through the night early morning on Wednesday and then Thursday morning ahead of the risk of severe on Thursday through that area. May not have enough time to destabilize and may not time up well.

Could that create a substantial cold pool aloft? @xJownage

Deep systems like this are almost always accompanied by strong warm air advection, which can often destabilize the warm sector in a hurry, even through cloud cover. Dixie in particular often undergoes extremely fast airmass recovery due to its proximity with the gulf. 4/27 had a morning MCS, as an example, that actually produced several sigtors itself. There are a number of events that have been like this especially in dixie.

In fact, a morning MCS' is often a precursor to higher end events, as they often leave outflow boundaries that serve as focuses for both enhanced low level convergence (for initiation) and locally enhanced SRH.

 

[KevinH]

In fact, a morning MCS' is often a precursor to higher end events, as they often leave outflow boundaries that serve as focuses for both enhanced low level convergence (for initiation) and locally enhanced SRH.

I think Spann has said something similar.

 

[Matt Grantham]

The system is looking a bit more sheared now on the 00z GFS, and the Canadian went much flatter. The modeled ridge is offering a lot of resistance, more than we have seen recently, and it is trending stronger. Most, if not all of our severe threats have uptrended since November, but I have to say this one is not looking that way at the present time.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Deep systems like this are almost always accompanied by strong warm air advection, which can often destabilize the warm sector in a hurry, even through cloud cover. Dixie in particular often undergoes extremely fast airmass recovery due to its proximity with the gulf. 4/27 had a morning MCS, as an example, that actually produced several sigtors itself. There are a number of events that have been like this especially in dixie.

In fact, a morning MCS' is often a precursor to higher end events, as they often leave outflow boundaries that serve as focuses for both enhanced low level convergence (for initiation) and locally enhanced SRH.

If I'm not mistaken, the last tornado outbreak in Alabama had a morning MCS in Mississippi.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Latest C-Shield updraft helicity for Wednesday night. Little Rock and Fort Smith look like decent targets.


The run ends at Thursday morning in Mississippi with some mild rotation tracks.

Should be in Alabama range on the next run.....thats what I'm most interested in at the moment since it would logistically be better for me to chase.

 

[KevinH]

Should be in Alabama range on the next run.....thats what I'm most interested in at the moment since it would logistically be better for me to chase.

Same…. Except for the chasing part lol

 

[UK_EF4]

UKMET still has a pretty robust severe threat Wednesday and Thursday. Out of all the global models it has the slowest trough ejection and a slightly more compact and potent trough. So seems like anything on the table still though hopefully we lean towards the less severe solutions over time.

 

[UK_EF4]

 

[UK_EF4]

GFS 06z a slight 'upgrade' in severe potential. I wouldn't be surprised if on CAMS as moisture uptrends there is a more volatile parameter space aligned with the strongest shear which is displaced to the NE. Still think overnight Wednesday into early Thursday could be a pretty bad nocturnal event.

 

[UK_EF4]

One of the longest Day 4-8 risks ever?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The system is looking a bit more sheared now on the 00z GFS, and the Canadian went much flatter. The modeled ridge is offering a lot of resistance, more than we have seen recently, and it is trending stronger. Most, if not all of our severe threats have uptrended since November, but I have to say this one is not looking that way at the present time.

buzz kill... o well as a chaser plenty more chances guess

 

[KevinH]

buzz kill... o well as a chaser plenty more chances guess

Wait… the model will flip flop again lol

 

[Gail]

Good timing!