A event that has caught my eye for a few similarities possibly is February 18th 2009. Some differences some simialrities
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
JPWX
Member
Here's my first look at next week's threat. I can see where a Moderate might be considered for Thursday but it would be highly dependent upon how fast the possible MCS Wednesday gets out as well as cloud cover issues. Either way, gonna be interesting this upcoming week and beyond.
Nice map - This looks fun haha I might try making my own! I agree with the map itself as well, and I also agree with you Wednesday probably is the most worrisome day at the moment.
Interesting look from the MMFS for Thursday.... 
Here is my version of the map idea started by @JPWX . This isn't really in any SPC category, just rough thoughts, and this is not supposed to be a serious forecast, just my rough thinking at this stage as a weather weenie!
The main reason I put that red zone there is there seems to be some hints in model guidance for a subtle shortwave trough in this region 00-06z - no.1 this provides a source of lift for discrete storms, but no. 2 I'm thinking this could slightly enhance wind fields and that may become apparent in more high res data as we get closer to the event. As thermodynamics most likely trend higher I'm thinking we could see an area of decent 750-1500j/kg SBCAPE coinciding with favourable wind profiles and a discrete mode... hence my thinking above. Will be interesting to see how this event progresses that's for sure; hopefully we come away from it with minimal impacts.
xJownage
Member
MCS timing being a little later might be a bad thing for Thursday. Leaving outflow boundaries and potentially making initiation later would be a precursor to a major event.
Honestly, I'm still full steam ahead. The temps and dews being poor on globals doesn't phase me, this always happens with winter events. CAMs will clean this up.
Honestly, I'm still full steam ahead. The temps and dews being poor on globals doesn't phase me, this always happens with winter events. CAMs will clean this up.
Wouldn't the cold pool it leaves create More instability or lift in the area it rakes over?
Seems like this event is boundary centric.
Just some of the things in play for Thursday possibly lol.
* Multiple confluence bands?
* Outflow boundaries?
* Prefrontal trough?
* low to mid level cold pool maybe?
* Multiple confluence bands?
* Outflow boundaries?
* Prefrontal trough?
* low to mid level cold pool maybe?
- Thread starter
- #270
Lake Martin EF4
Member
And that Thurs mdt would be where?
JPWX
Member
Central MS/parts of North MS up into Northwest AL.
KevinH
Member
When you say “next week” (Wednesday) do you mean 2/15 or 2/22?
JPWX
Member
The 15th
CheeselandSkies
Member
We saw a GFS run or two that was pretty threatening for the week after this coming one, but that was and still is out in voodoo land especially for the GFS. I'd keep it on the back burner at least until we get this coming Wednesday/Thursday sorted out.
Bryan C. Wilson
Member
Hey... I think that guy is onto something
I'm kinda curious on one thing. Im not sure the threat north of Tennessee will be realized. The mcs kindve decays and then shifts north into a rain shield through extreme north Alabama and Mississippi
F
Former Member 1430
Guest
So are you saying you think this is a MS and AL threat only from what you see or are you including TN just not north of TN?
i
I could see some serious cuts in the risk area in the future. Maybe I'm wrong. But from history usually I wouldn't bet on instability being pulled past a large rain mass to the north. Thursday morning through late morning.
Maybe globals are bullish on the actual amount of precip and inst handling the EML well not sure ... If I had to pick it'd probably be somewhere in the middle but I'm not sure
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May not even make it into Tennessee, I just have a hard time seeing any substantial instability making it northward with a big rain shield like that . Maybe some, but nothing substantial.
I could see some serious cuts in the risk area in the future. Maybe I'm wrong. But from history usually I wouldn't bet on instability being pulled past a large rain mass to the north. Thursday morning through late morning.
Maybe globals are bullish on the actual amount of precip and inst handling the EML well not sure ... If I had to pick it'd probably be somewhere in the middle but I'm not sure
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I feel like the Dry layer is being under modeled. Looking at the C shield and MMFS and NAM do not show the expansive rain masses as the globals. I do think some sort of MCS Will be realized in the deep south somewhere which it's northward movement may stunt the northward extent of instability.
May be a environment supportive of individual discrete cells initiated by some of these confluence bands and such.
Kindve curious to whether they're will be substantial cloud breaks in the deep south as the day moves on before the cells pop though.
May be a environment supportive of individual discrete cells initiated by some of these confluence bands and such.
Kindve curious to whether they're will be substantial cloud breaks in the deep south as the day moves on before the cells pop though.
xJownage
Member
Well i didn't want to namedrop you but i guess we can do that LOLHey... I think that guy is onto something
