Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol bmx on there afternoon update.

 

[KevinH]

I feel like the Dry layer is being under modeled. Looking at the C shield and MMFS and NAM do not show the expansive rain masses as the globals. I do think some sort of MCS Will be realized in the deep south somewhere which it's northward movement may stunt the northward extent of instability.

May be a environment supportive of individual discrete cells initiated by some of these confluence bands and such.

Kindve curious to whether they're will be substantial cloud breaks in the deep south as the day moves on before the cells pop though.View attachment 17766

Do you have the scans after this? I’m trying to see something lol

 

[KevinH]

Lol bmx on there afternoon update. View attachment 17775

It’s the word funky for me lol

 

[warneagle]

A event that has caught my eye for a few similarities possibly is February 18th 2009. Some differences some simialrities

I remember spending most of that morning in the dorm basement because there were a couple of tornadoes in Lee County that day.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[KevinH]

I remember spending most of that morning in the dorm basement because there were a couple of tornadoes in Lee County that day.

Lee Co, AL? Or are talking about Feb 28, 2009?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lee Co, AL? Or are talking about Feb 28, 2009?

Lee Co, AL? Or are talking about Feb 28, 2009?

Feb 28 , 2009.

Not to be confused with the Lee county ef4 event.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Surface low is good 50-100 miles southeast of it's forecasted position yesterday lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like dynamics are coming together better for the deep south, still a positive tilt trough. The funk of that 4/5 day range is shaking off some.
Cape has risen a good 500-700j in portions of Alabama and Mississippi than what it was yesterday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Cape up to 1500+ for central Alabama low level backing isn't favorable for tornadoes. Phenomenal sounding nonetheless but more so a linear damaging winds from this sounding I would guess. There's a few factors in play that could back the low level winds more.
Maybe I'm a little wonky but it seems a secondary very weak low pressure could develop in north Mississippi around Memphis area. Just little mesoscale things that could change things considerbly

 

[UncleJuJu98]

3km nam shows many confluence bands, but no mcs over Mississippi and Alabama. I'm wondering if peak heating will initiate some of those storms near or along the bands. Or if the bands them self will initiate. A lot of questions.

Picture is from around 9 o'clock wensday night

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Latest C-Shield updraft helicity for Wed/Wed night

Latest C-Shield updraft helicity for Thursday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Storm motion of left to right? Oof.

Btw i presume his in house model is undergoing instability a good bit

Along with 3km nam just getting in range has the low a bit further southwest when nearing ejection it looks like.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gif of radar from the MMFS

 

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z 3KM NAM is pretty much a non-event through the end of the run at 0Z Thursday.

 

[UK_EF4]

I don't really think that Thursday is going to be of note, parameters just don't look that significant currently. However overnight Wednesday definitely looks significant to me with the potential for a discrete mode.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12Z 3KM NAM is pretty much a non-event through the end of the run at 0Z Thursday.

3km nam has a drier bias usually I think. So I don't think it has a grasp too well on convection. I always rely on the WRF when it comes to mesoscale for accuracy. But I always like to look and see what 3km says.

I feel uneasy from this setup, a nice EML and westerly flow usually spells discrete supercells in the deep south. Along with the possibility of a general motion of west to east helps with sustained tornadic storms. And some of the higher resolution supports a possibility of a very weak low pressure south of the main surface low that moves through Missouri. I feel like instability is underdone, I feel like the weather services will have to ramp up forecasts in the coming days. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I was actually listening to treys April 27th 2011 breakdown on your typical deep south tornado events and there's a decent bit of earmarks into making this one a tornado event. No where near close to April 27th of course. But still I have a feeling this could turn into a decent little tornado event. Hopefully I'm wrong though!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I don't really think that Thursday is going to be of note, parameters just don't look that significant currently. However overnight Wednesday definitely looks significant to me with the potential for a discrete mode.

I hope that's the case, I have a feeling mesoscale parameters for this event will make severe weather more likely.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I don't really think that Thursday is going to be of note, parameters just don't look that significant currently. However overnight Wednesday definitely looks significant to me with the potential for a discrete mode.

So in other words, just beyond the range of today's 12Z 3KM NAM.

 

[xJownage]

Synoptic pattern is everything. Positively tilted troughs don't preclude severe weather. I have a feeling we're going to see another last minute uptrend on both days.

What's pissing me off today is people calling bust 3 days out. We've seen a bunch of events do exactly this and look like garbage thermos-wise until the last minute. To call bust on such a strong system 3 days out is irresponsible at best.

As for the NAM, the NAM is notorious for being both cool and dry in the winter months. The only model that's stayed mildly consistent with its output throughout this entire forecast has been the Euro. Everything else is all over the place.