akt1985
Member
Right now, is the threat for north Alabama on Thursday afternoon/evening or is it more overnight?
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I wouldn't focus on timing yet, Too much uncertainty with timing as of now which is to be expected because it's 5-6 days out. although the threat seems to be high for severe weather (some significant) across the entire risk area.Right now, is the threat for north Alabama on Thursday afternoon/evening or is it more overnight?
Starting to see the 30+ contour on cips analogs. Oof. Curious to the analogs for it now, I can never find the tab where it shows similar events anymore.lol
How I see it is that consensus in previous top analogs on cips is that similar setups to the one we are seeing wensday/Thursday produced the highest volume of severe reports in central / south central Alabama with the 30+% contour being in extreme south Central Alabama on cips.That’s bout way I see it too. Maybe not quite far north as that . But expect both day 5 and day 6 have a 30 prob area . This is setting up to be first high risk day in awhile that’s if things hold on.
Are we allowed to cuss on here?How I see it is that consensus in previous top analogs on cips is that similar setups to the one we are seeing wensday/Thursday produced the highest volume of severe reports in central / south central Alabama with the 30+% contour being in extreme south Central Alabama on cips.
So in general based off past analogs it thinks your biggest risk area will be around central Alabama. With even a pixel of almost 45-50% on the pixelated version. *Still early on in the ball game things will change.*View attachment 17738
I once used the F word in reaction to a bare slab in VA after a tornado (that wasn't even slightly well built it seems). Post got edited and I got warned. So no.Are we allowed to cuss on here?
Lol don't hype it up, just putting raw data from cips out there and how i interpret it. Personally I don't buy a higher risk on cips in south Alabama like it does I would think a higher risk outline would be central Alabama and north Alabama just for my state.Are we allowed to cuss on here?
I believe this will change significantly. I expect the models to continue to trend with the moisture return to the north. Where the best dynamics and moisture quality meet is where we will have a bullseye for the strongest storms. Personally, I do not see it staying that far south because the stronger dynamics will be further northHow I see it is that consensus in previous top analogs on cips is that similar setups to the one we are seeing wensday/Thursday produced the highest volume of severe reports in central / south central Alabama with the 30+% contour being in extreme south Central Alabama on cips.
So in general based off past analogs it thinks your biggest risk area will be around central Alabama. With even a pixel of almost 45-50% on the pixelated version. *Still early on in the ball game things will change.*View attachment 17738
Agreed, that's why I think for Alabama portion it'll be. Central and north Alabama. I think cips is picking up on the idea of higher severe probs but doesn't have the exact location well.I believe this will change significantly. I expect the models to continue to trend with the moisture return to the north. Where are the best dynamics and moisture quality meet is where we will have a bullseye for the strongest storms. Personally, I do not see it staying that far south because the stronger dynamics will be further north
Ok good to know. I will pin this comment in my head for next weekI once used the F word in reaction to a bare slab in VA after a tornado (that wasn't even slightly well built it seems). Post got edited and I got warned. So no.
Agreed on southern AL.Lol don't hype it up, just putting raw data from cips out there and how i interpret it. Personally I don't buy a higher risk on cips in south Alabama like it does I would think a higher risk outline would be central Alabama and north Alabama just for my state.
Cips analog isn't gospel, just a tool to help understand possible risks of a upcoming event
I can see that too! Even with my limited understanding of weather lolI believe this will change significantly. I expect the models to continue to trend with the moisture return to the north. Where the best dynamics and moisture quality meet is where we will have a bullseye for the strongest storms. Personally, I do not see it staying that far south because the stronger dynamics will be further north
Good grief man, just say you live in Alabama nobody would notice hahahaFor reference, when I say I live in W-C GA, THIS is exactly where I mean lol. Needless to say I watch what is happening in Central and Southern AL VERY closely. This upcoming event has my attention.
View attachment 17739
This was exactly my thoughts. I think the risk area will be quite large and possibly underestimated. There could be quite a large area that gets rocked by this storm system.I'd like to note also that the whole system is very broad. So it'll likely be a pretty expansive risk area for the possibility of significant severe. It isn't a tight confined area. Wind fields on this system and instability are far reaching. Modest to high winds at 850mb is expansive. View attachment 17740View attachment 17741
Very reminiscent in scope of March 2nd 2012. Keeps popping in my mind. Not in terms of magnitude but risk area. But I'm not sure that the highest risk would be in the Kentucky area like March 2nd. I'd say just off how I see it probably Tennessee Alabama and MississippiThis was exactly my thoughts. I think the risk area will be quite large and possibly underestimated. There could be quite a large area that gets rocked by this storm system.
We are on the same page unfortunately. For the fun of it I’m going to post a map later where I think the highest risk will be.Very reminiscent in scope of March 2nd 2012. Keeps popping in my mind. Not in terms of magnitude but risk area. But I'm not sure that the highest risk would be in the Kentucky area like March 2nd. I'd say just off how I see it probably Tennessee Alabama and Mississippi
I would actually be rather shocked if a future High-Risk day were to actually verify tornado-wise. I’ll bet the current ceiling will come down a lot in the end.That’s bout way I see it too. Maybe not quite far north as that . But expect both day 5 and day 6 have a 30 prob area . This is setting up to be first high risk day in awhile that’s if things hold on.