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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

xJownage said:
Don't get caught up in too many details right now. Global models are likely far underforecasting instability, especially the GFS. Having such rich moisture return under such a powerful trough with such a strong dry air intrusion will almost certainly result in an instability uptrend with time.
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Yeah I figured it was, was looking at theta e, which I'm trying to start incorporating it into forecasting some, I usually incorporate something new to add to my arsenal of forecasting every once in a while. But the theta e is decently high; (higher than our last event that Atmospheric Anti-Climax which had around 2000j in places.) which I've heard correlates to potential instability.

And not to mention dry air in the mid levels will aid into higher instability.

These are the 2m theta e from this event wensday/Thursday and then from the last event on the GFS at 90 hrs at 2m. (Nvm I thought I screenshotted 2m for the last event but I only see 850mb Screenshot_2023-02-10-18-07-24-22_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-02-10-18-07-01-12_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
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18Z GFS substantially slows down the trough ejection by a couple hundred miles on thursday. It also extends the warm sector up into central IL. Here's a sounding from there....this is exactly what I was fearing. With the GFS continuing to cave to the euro in terms of moisture response and EML, this is something that's looking more and more likely.

gfs_2023021018_144_39.5--89.75.png
 
xJownage said:
18Z GFS substantially slows down the trough ejection by a couple hundred miles on thursday. It also extends the warm sector up into central IL. Here's a sounding from there....this is exactly what I was fearing. With the GFS continuing to cave to the euro in terms of moisture response and EML, this is something that's looking more and more likely.

gfs_2023021018_144_39.5--89.75.png
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Yep. The moisture return will be much greater and further north then what models are projecting. They will likely have to expand the risk area and I fully expect a 30% risk to be issued at some point
 
Edith said:
Yep. The moisture return will be much greater and further north then what models are projecting. They will likely have to expand the risk area and I fully expect a 30% risk to be issued at some point
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Really does look like a large scale significant severe weather event.

Just off of a quick glance it reminds me of March 2 , 2012 but with the higher threat a bit more south than the Ohio valley and Kentucky area.@xJownage any event that reminds you of the upcoming setup?

(NOT saying this will be anything like March 2nd. Just a quick glance makes me think of that event.)
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Really does look like a large scale significant severe weather event.

Just off of a quick glance it reminds me of March 2 , 2012 but with the higher threat a bit more south than the Ohio valley and Kentucky area.@xJownage any event that reminds you of the upcoming setup?

(NOT saying this will be anything like March 2nd. Just a quick glance makes me think of that event.)
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this is the first one that came to mind for me as well due to the timing and wide area. we got a nasty share of it up near the ohio river that day.
 
Bruh…. :O

As soon as I saw that LARGE 15% I said a 30% has to be coming, and sure enough the SPC said one is likely coming.

Words that stood out to me here:
-“Potent”

-“focus for severe is overwhelmingly concentrated on Wednesday through Thursday”

-“very powerful upper level system”

Not good.

Storm Prediction Center Jun 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
KevinH said:
Bruh…. :O

As soon as I saw that LARGE 15% I said a 30% has to be coming, and sure enough the SPC said one is likely coming.

Words that stood out to me here:
-“Potent”

-“focus for severe is overwhelmingly concentrated on Wednesday through Thursday”

-“very powerful upper level system”

Not good.

Storm Prediction Center Jun 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
I'd say consensus is that a significant outbreak could occur in Alabama and missippi and portions of the Tennessee valley and areas north may have a lesser threat. 30% would likely be in that Alabama Mississippi Tennessee area. A very volatile setup is coming.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'd say consensus is that a significant outbreak could occur in Alabama and missippi and portions of the Tennessee valley and areas north may have a lesser threat. 30% would likely be in that Alabama Mississippi Tennessee area. A very volatile setup is coming.
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I have Northern AL, Southern TN, and Northern MS as the bullseye right now for the 30% probability.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Starting to see the 30+ contour on cips analogs. Oof. Curious to the analogs for it now, I can never find the tab where it shows similar events anymore.lol
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That’s bout way I see it too. Maybe not quite far north as that . But expect both day 5 and day 6 have a 30 prob area . This is setting up to be first high risk day in awhile that’s if things hold on.
 
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