Clancy
Member
Not at my PC atm, will get you some as soon as I get back.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Clancy
Member
For Day 7, for selected area around BMX/TCL:
For NE AL/W-C GA:
For C MS:
Yeah your bigger events in the south have a decent chunk of dry air in the mid levels; or at least from paying attention over the years it does.
Too much and your moisture (instability) won't be able to overcome though, so it's kinda a sweet spot
xJownage
Member
Sometimes, but sometimes they also don't and still happen anyways with a rather messy storm mode. That being said you're right, an EML being advected in is generally a precursor to bigger events.
Another thing to note is that as i said before, this EML isn't that hot and it's mixing out as it arrives in the warm sector, so cap busting really isn't a major failure mode right now.
Also, look further north. KY up into OH and the OH valley gets decent moisture return on the euro. Might be something to watch with regards to the spatial area covered by this potential event, expansion north is absolutely a possibility.
cincywx
Member
been watching this for a few days and this has quietly become my concern in cincy. its going to be pushing 70 here next wednesday/thursday as well. still a long ways to go for sure, but events that span this far north/south tend to be very harsh to say the least.
Right on cue, the models are now rapidly speeding us into MJO Phase 8 on the 16th in conjunction with this system. I believe the system itself helps push us into Phase 8.
Updated GFS Ensemble below.
Updated GFS Ensemble below.
xJownage
Member
12Z GFS shows what I was fearing, which is a continued EML uptrend. The GFS seems to be caving to the euro with regards to EML intensity.
Keep posting guys we love y'all's insight @xJownage @Matt Grantham , especially if this becomes a major severe event
CheeselandSkies
Member
12Z GFS is almost TOO far north with the system for this time of year...triple point on the WI/IL border at 18Z 2/16, with low 50s dews along the warm front extending east into southern Lower MI. Kind of insult to injury as a storm enthusiast/chaser if that verifies, since if the upcoming stratospheric PV disruption plays out as expected, we won't be seeing any of those in March and April when they might actually have some teeth around here.
Recently I've seen significant tornado events play out north of 40N much earlier in the season than I thought possible, 3/5 last year and even 2/28/2017. But 2/16?
Recently I've seen significant tornado events play out north of 40N much earlier in the season than I thought possible, 3/5 last year and even 2/28/2017. But 2/16?
xJownage
Member
Don't lump me in with Matt, he's way, way smarter than I'll ever be. I'm just a dumb chaser lol.
Another piece of this GFS run - the trough coming through on tuesday that was going to sweep everything out is continuing to trend north, and it's weakened significantly. This supports my earlier theory of trends pointing towards a northern expansion of the moisture and risk area. Sounding below from central IN on the 12Z GFS reflects this possibility.
Another piece of this GFS run - the trough coming through on tuesday that was going to sweep everything out is continuing to trend north, and it's weakened significantly. This supports my earlier theory of trends pointing towards a northern expansion of the moisture and risk area. Sounding below from central IN on the 12Z GFS reflects this possibility.
warneagle
Member
Yeah the SPC discussion mentioned that there should be plenty of time for the airmass ahead of the trough to modify (at least in the coastal states, not sure about further north). Anytime you get that kind of (relatively) uninterrupted return flow this kind of year that's a big red flag.
F
Former Member 1430
Guest
I agree with your assessment. Way to early yet to say for sure but looks like TN valley, KY, and up to the Ohio River watch out if this trend holds/continuesDon't lump me in with Matt, he's way, way smarter than I'll ever be. I'm just a dumb chaser lol.
Another piece of this GFS run - the trough coming through on tuesday that was going to sweep everything out is continuing to trend north, and it's weakened significantly. This supports my earlier theory of trends pointing towards a northern expansion of the moisture and risk area. Sounding below from central IN on the 12Z GFS reflects this possibility.
tennessee storm chaser
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Yeah this one looks like more expanded area in play here …. Lower Ohio valley Down to the central gulf states in the severe risk this time
We may have to watch out for a eventual day 4 or 5 ; 30% risk area if trends continue
KevinH
Member
Ditto
KevinH
Member
Not sure why I am not getting email notifications for this thread as I have checked my settings twice 
but BMX just tweeted this.
but BMX just tweeted this.
Posted this on page 1 or 2 in this thread, but remember Brandon/DWX is supposed to be down starting Monday.
GTWXAlum
Member
I wonder if they would possibly postpone in anticipation of some kind of severe event?
- Moderator
- #119
Yeah, but thankfully with the threat potential being so obvious already and more so on Monday they are likely to postpone maintenance.
Read through his thread. Always good posts by this account
