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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

xJownage said:
One thing i'm noticing is VERY strong advection of dry air into the warm sector. When I first looked at the euro I thought this level of dry air was unreasonable, but there's decent model agreement for just that - see the below gifs.

A strong dry air intrusion aloft would probably be a pretty bad scenario for dixie, considering this dry air will often clean out the warm sector to both foster destabilization and keep storms relatively discrete. In addition, it appears this dry air starts mixing out as it gets to the warm sector, and it's not that hot either, meaning getting a very strong cap out of it doesn't seem highly likely at this time.


View attachment 17709


View attachment 17708
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Yeah your bigger events in the south have a decent chunk of dry air in the mid levels; or at least from paying attention over the years it does.

Too much and your moisture (instability) won't be able to overcome though, so it's kinda a sweet spot
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah your bigger events in the south have a decent chunk of dry air in the mid levels; or at least from paying attention over the years it does.

Too much and your moisture won't be able to overcome though, so it's kinda a sweet spot
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Sometimes, but sometimes they also don't and still happen anyways with a rather messy storm mode. That being said you're right, an EML being advected in is generally a precursor to bigger events.

Another thing to note is that as i said before, this EML isn't that hot and it's mixing out as it arrives in the warm sector, so cap busting really isn't a major failure mode right now.

Also, look further north. KY up into OH and the OH valley gets decent moisture return on the euro. Might be something to watch with regards to the spatial area covered by this potential event, expansion north is absolutely a possibility.
 
xJownage said:
Also, look further north. KY up into OH and the OH valley gets decent moisture return on the euro. Might be something to watch with regards to the spatial area covered by this potential event, expansion north is absolutely a possibility.
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been watching this for a few days and this has quietly become my concern in cincy. its going to be pushing 70 here next wednesday/thursday as well. still a long ways to go for sure, but events that span this far north/south tend to be very harsh to say the least.
 
Right on cue, the models are now rapidly speeding us into MJO Phase 8 on the 16th in conjunction with this system. I believe the system itself helps push us into Phase 8.


slide11-png.17677


Updated GFS Ensemble below.

GEFS.png
 
12Z GFS is almost TOO far north with the system for this time of year...triple point on the WI/IL border at 18Z 2/16, with low 50s dews along the warm front extending east into southern Lower MI. Kind of insult to injury as a storm enthusiast/chaser if that verifies, since if the upcoming stratospheric PV disruption plays out as expected, we won't be seeing any of those in March and April when they might actually have some teeth around here.

Recently I've seen significant tornado events play out north of 40N much earlier in the season than I thought possible, 3/5 last year and even 2/28/2017. But 2/16?
 
Don't lump me in with Matt, he's way, way smarter than I'll ever be. I'm just a dumb chaser lol.

Another piece of this GFS run - the trough coming through on tuesday that was going to sweep everything out is continuing to trend north, and it's weakened significantly. This supports my earlier theory of trends pointing towards a northern expansion of the moisture and risk area. Sounding below from central IN on the 12Z GFS reflects this possibility.

gfs_2023021012_150_40.0--87.25.png
 
Yeah the SPC discussion mentioned that there should be plenty of time for the airmass ahead of the trough to modify (at least in the coastal states, not sure about further north). Anytime you get that kind of (relatively) uninterrupted return flow this kind of year that's a big red flag.
 
xJownage said:
Don't lump me in with Matt, he's way, way smarter than I'll ever be. I'm just a dumb chaser lol.

Another piece of this GFS run - the trough coming through on tuesday that was going to sweep everything out is continuing to trend north, and it's weakened significantly. This supports my earlier theory of trends pointing towards a northern expansion of the moisture and risk area. Sounding below from central IN on the 12Z GFS reflects this possibility.

gfs_2023021012_150_40.0--87.25.png
Click to expand...
I agree with your assessment. Way to early yet to say for sure but looks like TN valley, KY, and up to the Ohio River watch out if this trend holds/continues
 
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