Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

I think I may go on my first ever chase next Friday if it verifies or more so a sit and watch lol, safe bet is revenue discovery tower or USD. It's on beacon Pkwy. in Homewood looks over the entire downtown and surrounding areas of Birmingham and has a easy access to underground.

If a tornadic storm goes through the usual pleasant Grove / hueytown / fultondale path (the Northside of of the Appalachian split.) It'll be a great view. Most tornadic storms either go north of the Downtown of Alabama or south of it. (South path is hoover/ moundville/ pell city)

Lol this all henges on timing as well. If it comes through late evening / night, that's a no go for me

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

UncleJuJu get you a drone if you are going to chase in Dixie Alley.

 

[GTWXAlum]

From NWS Nashville's long term discussion this afternoon:

"Another trough will be exiting the Four Corners
region on late Wednesday with a large warm sector over the
Southeast. A surface low will move northeastward from the southern
plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday
dragging a cold front eastward. The GFS and Euro show decent
agreement with the timing on Thursday with plenty of shear in
place. The question will be how much instability will be in place
with Euro and GFS ensembles showing only a small chance of
greater than 500 J/kg of CAPE during the day on Thursday.
Regardless, this will be a system to keep an eye on over the
coming days."

 

[JPWX]

CPC putting up a Moderate Risk of Heavy Precipitation during the 8 thru 14 day period.

 

[UK_EF4]

Yikes... 60F+ dew points overlapping 50+kt LLJ on an ensemble *mean*... 5 days out... is concerning - to say the least. This event does seem to have a pretty high ceiling as many others are saying.

 

[JBishopwx]

MEG AFD:

Memphis:
The biggest weather concern over the next seven days will occur
Wednesday Night into Thursday as a potent low pressure lifts out
of the Southern Plains into the Midwest creating the possibility
of severe storms developing over the Mid-South. There remains
timing differences between the operational runs of the GFS and
ECMWF at this time. However looking at the GFS ensembles, there
are several more members that are closer to the ECMWF solution. As
a result, POPS are more in line with the ECMWF solution. With the
Mid-South having an extended time with the warm sector opened up,
instability will not be a problem with this system. CAPE values,
looking at the ensembles, have a high probability of being greater
than 500 J/KG Wednesday Night as the trailing cold front moves
into the region. There will also be plenty of shear in place due
to the proximity of the SFC low. Stay tuned to the latest
forecast as timing differences get ironed out.

 

[JPWX]

MEG AFD:

How you know that next week's threat is serious? When MEG states that instability and shear won't be an issue.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like next week could be a longer duration severe event. For the deep south. These lightning density maps don't indicate severe but it indicates for a a couple days of convective storms with two surface lows swinging through may be a multi day event for some areas in the south.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It would be wise to start planning on the idea of possibly a two day threat areas for portions of the deep south.

 

[MoonBaby]

I just went through so much trouble making a new account because I haven’t posted anything in so long my old one vanished (I usually just lurk because I’m a nerd but not well versed in how to actually “talk weather”). Went through all this to say oh snap Fred’s talking, and that’s never good for me (Alabama) or anyone he mentions really.

I'll be around tonight to diagnose and post what I see. The fact that I've been quiet for as long as I have here lately but I'm suddenly not quiet now, that alone, should get your immediate attention if you're one of my long-time followers around here...

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

I just went through so much trouble making a new account because I haven’t posted anything in so long my old one vanished (I usually just lurk because I’m a nerd but not well versed in how to actually “talk weather”). Went through all this to say oh snap Fred’s talking, and that’s never good for me (Alabama) or anyone he mentions really.

What was your old account?

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[MoonBaby]

Tuscgirl something? It was very generic and boring. I have only ever posted maybe twice so honestly I don’t remember. I normally lurk. Lord I quoted you twice. See what I mean? I’m not the best commenter haha

What was your old account?

What was your old account?

 

[MoonBaby]

I think I may go on my first ever chase next Friday if it verifies or more so a sit and watch lol, safe bet is revenue discovery tower or USD. It's on beacon Pkwy. in Homewood looks over the entire downtown and surrounding areas of Birmingham and has a easy access to underground.

If a tornadic storm goes through the usual pleasant Grove / hueytown / fultondale path (the Northside of of the Appalachian split.) It'll be a great view. Most tornadic storms either go north of the Downtown of Alabama or south of it. (South path is hoover/ moundville/ pell city)

Lol this all henges on timing as well. If it comes through late evening / night, that's a no go for me

Where I live now, the south path usually tries to come at me. I’m near caffee junction, where Tuscaloosa, Bibb, and Jefferson all kinda touch. Growing up I would go to woods and water in Tuscaloosa. Such an amazing vantage point as long as it’s not coming toward you (obviously).

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Tuscgirl something? It was very generic and boring. I have only ever posted maybe twice so honestly I don’t remember. I normally lurk. Lord I quoted you twice. See what I mean? I’m not the best commenter haha

https://talkweather.com/members/tuscweathergrl.701/#recent-content

Although if that's you, you posted 23 times, not twice.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looks like south and possibly part of eastern missippi based on the GFS has potential for severe weather took ehi screenshots at peak heating Wednesday and thursday. Timing will change of course and magnitude but early signs are that Mississippi could face a two day threat.

 

[MoonBaby]

https://talkweather.com/members/tuscweathergrl.701/#recent-content

Although if that's you, you posted 23 times, not twice.

Bahahhaha omg that was me and apparently I am not the brightest crayon. Oops ok maybe it was a hair more than 2. Moral here it’s been a while haha

 

[MoonBaby]

BMX is already chatting on the twitter

 

[UncleJuJu98]

BMX is already chatting on the twitter